Welcome back to Forum Buzz, where I peruse the DobberHockey Forums and weigh in on active, heavily debated, or otherwise relevant recent threads, reminding folks just how great a resource the Forums are. Nearly anything might be covered here, other than trades and signings, which usually get their own separate write-ups on the main site and are also normally covered in the next day’s Ramblings, or questions that are specific to salary cap issues, which is the domain of the weekly Capped column. To access the specific forum thread on which a question is based, click on the “Topic” for that question.

Topic #1 – In a 12 team league where five an be kept, but two must be forwards one must be a defenseman, and one must be a goalie, and the fifth can be any position, the categories are G, A, Pts, PPPts, SOG, HIT, PIM, W, GAA, SV%, a team has Nikita Kucherov, Jack Hughes, Artemi Panarin, and Kyle Connor.  Which would be the non-keeper, noting that the other projected keepers are Quinn Hughes and Jacob Markstrom.

The first thing that jumps out is among these four forwards are three who are weakest in HIT and PIM, with Kucherov not exactly being a banger either. On top of that the team has Quinn Hughes, who's very weak in multicat overall. I think the dilemma here is less about who not to keep, but rather how to put together a trade that will help this team.

If one of these three is to be traded, I think it has to be Panarin. Don't get me wrong – he's a top tier scorer and likely will be even well into his 30s. But I think we've seen the best we're going to see from him, whereas Jack Hughes might just become the next Nathan MacKinnon in terms of offense and SOG, while Connor is not ideal to trade because he doesn't have the name value of Panarin plus has stats that look worse than they should due to a slow start.

With Panarin being the forward to trade with Quinn Hughes, who becomes the target? I think it has to be Rasmus Dahlin, who's a scoring machine and is a clear step up when it comes to multicat versus Quinn Hughes. If the Dahlin owner balks though, then what? This package won't be enough to get Cale Makar of course, and Adam Fox isn't much better than Hughes in multicat. In that case, I'd try to flip just Quinn Hughes for Miro Heiskanen, who looks like he'll be every bit as good as Hughes as early as this season and is a bit better in multicat, or Charlie McAvoy, who might not end up as great a scorer but is far superior in multicat.

When it comes time for keeper decisions among the for forwards, I actually think Connor is the non-keep. There is no bonus for goals and I trust Panarin to be more productive than Connor for the next few seasons.  Yes, Connor does well in SOG; however, that's an area which is easier to replace than across the board scoring, which Panarin should provide for years to come.

Topic #2 – In a league where 3C, 3LW, 3RW, 6D, and 2G start and scoring is, for forwards, G(5), A(3), STP(1), for d-men, G(6), A(4), STP(1.5), and for all skaters SOG(0.35), HIT(0.4), BLK(0.4), FOW(0.1), and for goalies W(6.5), SV(0.25), GA(-2.5), SO(2), how would the following players rank for the rest of this season: Vladimir Tarasenko, Bryan Rust, Tyler Toffoli, Tom Wilson?

This is not an easy choice, as the players are different in what they bring to the table as well as their situations. Toffoli has limited ice time but makes the most of it, Tarasenko is easily the most talented of the bunch but the effort level isn't always there, Rust has great deployment but runs hot and cold, and Wilson is superb in multicat but has limited scoring upside.

When there is no clear-cut favorite, you have to look at the categories and, I believe, the floor of the player. In looking at them, I think Rust is the first to be eliminated from contention. He is no longer a PP1 staple and isn't very goal-centric. He's also following his pattern of one great year followed by one subpar campaign, and since this is only about the rest of 2022-23 he isn't the right choice.

The question then becomes whether Wilson's scoring shortcomings are offset enough by his huge HIT totals. From HIT and BLK alone last season, Wilson basically had the equivalent of 25 goals, which is pretty substantial. Also, Wilson is Alex Ovechkin's designated protector, so once he's back to full health he will be joined at the hip with Ovi at ES. In other words, there is no real risk that Wilson's "spot" isn't right there waiting for him once he returns. But he too isn't a PP1 staple, and his SOG rate is poor, while his scoring is pretty balanced between goals and assists. 

Toffoli is showing in Calgary that he has talent, and he shoots a lot plus is a PP1 staple. However, his HIT and BLK are not great, he's definitely not a sniper, and he just isn't out there enough to be a threat to up his scoring. I think he's not a better option than Wilson.

The question becomes whether Tarasenko or Wilson is the choice. On paper, Tarasenkos should be doing as well as he did last season; however, his SOG and PP scoring rates are both down a good bit. His SH% is in his usual range though, so we can't bank on him seeing his goal total rise much if at all.  Also, the Blues are still basically sticking with an approach that sees their top three lines all get a decent amount of ice time, making if more difficult for Tarasenko to be able to do what he did last season, especially if he's not shooting as much.

If this was asked at the same time in 2021-22, I think I'd have gone with Tarasenko, as it was clear he was having a magical season where all his talent finally was on full display. But he's now back to his more enigmatic self (and currently injured), and without a higher SOG rate or point per game scoring I don't think he can be the choice over Wilson. In the end, I'm taking Wilson here, as his scoring should be good enough and his HIT and BLK are so impactful.

Topic #3 – In a 14 team points only cap dynasty league, a team thinking of looking to the future by dealing it's Brad Marchand for Matt Boldy, mainly because of concern with Marchand's age and Patrice Bergeron possibly not returning for 2022-23.  Should they do it?  Their full line-up is:

Forwards: Connor McDavid (12.5M), Nikita Kucherov (9.5M), Seth Jarvis (0.89M), Jonathan Huberdeau (5.9M), Kent Johnson (0.925M), Sam Steel (0,83M), Claude Giroux (6.5M), Mason Raymond (0.925M), Marchand (6.125M), Dylan Strome (3.5M), Trevor Zegras (0.925M), Kailer Yamamoto (3.1M)

Defensemen: Matt Dumba (6M), Morgan Rielly (7.5M), Roman Josi (9.06M).

Goalies: Spencer Knight (0.925M), Igor Shesterkin (5,670M).

Bench: Cam Talbot (3.67M), Jamie Drysdale (0.925M), Teuvo Teravainen (5.4M), Yaroslav Askarov (0.925M), Philip Tomasino (0.925M), Eeli Tolvanen (1.45M), Bobby Brink (0.925M), Anthony Mantha (5.7M), Adam Boqvist (2.6M), Vasily Podkolzin (0.925M), Kasperi Kapanen (3.2M), Thomas Bordeleau (0.925M), Ty Smith (0.925).

Boldy's scoring is down slightly, but his ice time and SOG rate are both up and he's a force on Minnesota's PP1. The other positive with Boldy is he should be just starting to enter his prime in two years when the Wild are out from under their restrictive cap penalty due the Ryan Suter and Zach Parise contracts. In short, Boldy is very good now and only figures to get better and is one of the top players to own who's age 21 or less. But let's not forget that Boldy will be getting a new contract this offseason, and despite their cap constraints Boldy should be due for a raise into at least $3-4M or even more, depending on the length of the deal.

Marchand is not only a superb scorer but his cap hit, on a per point basis, is amazing. I'm also not sure how much concern there should be as to the potential retiremenet of Patrice Bergeron and/or David Krejci, both of whom are on one year deals, while Marchand is inked for two more seasons. Of Marchand's 38 points through his first 34 games, fewer than half have also had Bergeron also recording a point, and only half of those are on the PP, where Marchand has dominated this season. I'm not here to say that Marchand and Bergeron don't have superb chemistry, as that is a demonstrated fact; however, Marchand has over 50% more share points on the PP with David Pastrnak than with Bergeron. Of course, Pastrnak could leave as a UFA after this season as well. If in fact all three opt to leave, Marchand might end up in a spot like Patrick Kane this year, which would be problematic for Marchand owners.

If this trade was made now, the benefit would be that the team would avoid a risk of Marchand having to be a one man show if all three of those forwards retire or leave as UFAs. The risk is that with Boston playing so well and Bergeron and Krejci not being that old, plus Pasta seeing that the team's core is still solid, Marchand could hold the same value for at least two more seasons until he himself is a UFA.

In the forum thread it was said that the team wasn't in contention this season. If that is indeed the case, then it might tilt the scales toward trading Marchand, as it would be better to look to the future. If the deal is to be made now it should be for more than Boldy, due to the low cap hit and proven production of Marchand. I'd make it a four-player deal, tossing in a player like Mantha and getting back another player, preferably a defensemen, where this team is weak.

Topic #4 – In a full keeper cap league with skater categories of G, A, PPP, SHP, Hits, Blks, which of the following is the best player to own for the this season and the next two: Tom Wilson, Joe Pavelski, David Perron, Brandon Hagel, or Patrick Kane?

As noted in the Forum thread, it's interesting – and relevant – that SOG isn't a category and neither is +/-.  As noted in Topic #2, Wilson has significant value in HIT and BLK. But players cut form his cloth has a history of breaking down, either in terms of lower scoring or more injuries or both, by age 30, if not earlier, and Wilson turns 29 in March. That is worrisome, although if he does stay healthy he should keep his "spot" as Ovi's linemate and protector.

Perron and Pavelski are veterans would have shown themselves to be proven producers.  Of the two, Pavelski is older; however, if he stays with Jason Robertson and Roope Hintz – and there's no reason why he shouldn't – then he likely has point per game downside, with solid PPPts too.  Perron is getting similar deployment as last season; however, he's on a downgraded team and it is affecting his point totals. Perron might be a bit cheaper, and certainly is younger, but of the two I think I prefer Little Joe.

That leaves Kane and Hagel. If Kane was guaranteed to be traded to – say – the Rangers this season, I could see an argument for him being the keeper, as he's such a huge scorer and has a playing style that should let him succeed for a number of more seasons. However, we can't tell for sure whether that will happen, nor, if it does, when it will occur. On top of that, his cap hit is pretty huge, plus he's weak in two of the six categories. That's probably enough to disqualify him.

Hagel looks to be a bargain pick given his salary. But as we saw from Ondrej Palat there's no assurance that a spot with Nikita Kucherov and Brayden Point is set in stone.  And even if he does continue to be gifted a spot on that line, that doesn't mean he'll be on PP1, making him the only player other than Wilson for whom that isn't a lock.  He could be a home run pick; but because we can't bank on him getting similar deployment he's probably not the pick.

In the end, I think it comes down to Pavelski and Wilson. If one feels confident that Wilson won't fall victim to the age 30 rough and tumble curse, then he's probably the one to grab, especially since he also does get SHPs from time to time. If, on the other hand, one thinks that Pavelski can stay on his line as he has for two seasons now, then it's difficult to not choose him despite his age. I think either one is reasonable, but risky, and if it was me I'd be more confident in Pavelski staying productive than Wilson staying healthy and continuing to put up semi-decent scoring numbers.

Topic #5 – Although he's missed games due to being hurt, Aaron Ekblad's production is well below what was expected?  Is he a buy low, or has he come back to earth?

First off, I can't see Ekblad being a buy low now or even if he disappoints throughout the entire season. Why? Because he's a big name, what with being a former first overall draft pick and coming off a season that nearly saw him put up point per game numbers. Those of you who think you can buy low on him, chances are that won't be able to happen. The question thus becomes whether it would be worthwhile to try to obtain Ekblad, assuming one can get him at somewhat of a discount from what his sky high value was at this time last season?

It always concerns me when a player sees a huge spike in production at a time well after it should've occurred. Even if we say that defensemen can take until game 400 to breakout, Ekblad started 2022-23 at roughly game 400, so it would be a little late for him to have had a breakout.  Plus, to have a breakout and then see a drop the following season, albeit in the face of injuries, raises red flags. In fact, Ekblad's injuries have become frequent enough that not only does one have to worry about the happening on a yearly basis, but also whether the cumulative toll they're taking might adversely affect his fantasy performance.

Looking more closely at 2022-23, due to Ekblad not having performed as well in the past, we have to account for the rising tide lifting all boats factor.  In his previous two seasons where his scoring paces were 52 and 50 points, Florida scored 3.36 and 3.30 goals per game, and then in 2021-22 that number spiked to 4.11, which is a 23% jump from the 3.33 average of the two prior seasons.  Tack on 23% to Ekblad average of a 51-point pace over the prior two seasons, and the result is 63 points. At least some of Ekblad's upped scoring came simply as a result of being the go to option for blueline offense on a team that scored at an unsustainably high rate, as this season they're back to 3.28 goals per game.

Even accounting for that, can we at least say that Ekblad is a 60+ point d-man? Not so fast. For one, in his prior two seasons he had 17 PPPts in 102 games, for about one per every five games.  In 2021-22, however, that rate spiked to nearly one per every three contests. Does that mean he significantly overachieved in that area? Probably, as this season thus far he's averaging one PPPt per every 3.5 games. At minimum, he likely had at least a handful of added points last season via unsustainable PP production.

Another factor was Ekblad's offensive zone starting percentage, which was 58.5% for 2021-22 after being 50.9% and 50.0% his prior two seasons.  And for 2022-23 it's back down to an even lower 48.6%.  Lastly, his personal and team shooting percentages were both high in 2021-22, as his personal was 8.4%, or above the 7.0% for his career, and his team rate was 10.3%, which marked a career high.  Again, this likely tacked on at least a handful of points he probably was not supposed to get.

If you've been keeping track, we've chipped away at Ekblad's point total such that he might just be the 50ish point player he was prior to 2021-22.  Between that, and his frequency of injuries seemingly increasing with each passing season, I'm not buying Ekblad at any price that values him at more than a 50-55 point defenseman, and perhaps staying away entirely due to the cumulative injury risk.

Topic #6 – Is Alex Tuch a sell high?  In a points only keeper would it make sense to trade him and a draft pick (likely round 9 or 10) for Brady Tkachuk and Matthew Knies?

Let's first talk about Tkachuk. In a points-only league he's someone I'd be glad to have; but I'm less certain I want to go ahead and trade for him. I worry that his style of play could lead him to injury and, looking further ahead, he could be at risk of seeing his totals drop as he nears age 30 like so many other rough and tumble players have before him. The other concern I have is his PP scoring is off the charts this season, and yet his PP IPP is still below 60%. I think he's not likely to be able to produce like this on the PP going forward, and, as such, likely projects to be a 70-point guy.

What about Tuch?  He's already had injury issues; however, this season he's been healthy, so he might have finally overcome that hurdle. Plus, as I noted in regards to Tkachuk, he's an injury waiting to happen, while Tuch is perhaps a reformed band-aid-boy. Both come with concerns.

Tuch's scoring also likely too high, as his career SH% is well below what it is this season. If he was shooting at his normal rate he'd still be barely below a point per game. He also seems to be tethered to Tage Thompson, which for the time being seems like a great gig. However, if you read my most recent mailbag I expressed concern with regard to Thompson's ability to produce at this level given his height based on centers over the last 20 years who were as tall or taller than him, of which only two even scored at a point per every other game, and barely above that threshold, plus had injury issues throughout their career. The magic that we're seeing happen with Thompson, Tuch and Jeff Skinner might be able to continue or might just be the starts aligning for a magical season or two. Let's also not forget that Tuch is already 26 years old, so he likely isn't going to get much better even though technically he hasn't hit his 400 game "big guy" breakout threshold. Tkachuk, on the other hand, is still only 21, although as noted he might have a shorter shelf life.

The other concern I have regarding Tuch is he has Jack Quinn and Victor Olofsson behind him on the depth chart. Quinn has a bright future and Olofsson, although likely to leave as a UFA after next season, is not slouch. If Tuch were to get hurt again someone else could step in and if they fare well he could be shuffled to the second or even third line, as did occur from time to time last season. And that would be problematic, as Thompson has been on the ice for all but seven of Tuch's 45 points, for a percentage of 84%, even though they've taken the ice together for 75% of Tuch's overall TOI.

This is a close call. It might just be that getting Knies, who looks like a solid prospect, becomes the deciding factor. While I said I probably wouldn't be eager to trade for Tkachuk, I think this situation is one where it would make sense given Tuch's age and injury history, plus the depth on the Sabres, while Tkachuk, even if he suffers a similar fate as other players of his style and starts to break down by 30, should have a number of solid years to still produce well.

Topic #7 – In 12 team keep five (2F, 3D, 1G) league with categories of G, A, SOG, HIT, FW, BLK, W, SV, SV%, GAA, a team intends to keep Connor McDavid, Brady Tkachuk, Victor Hedman, Cale Makar, and Igor Shesterkin.  They also have Jack Hughes, who they don't want to risk losing for nothing, so they're contemplating a trade of Hughes and Hedman for Rasmus Dahlin?  Would the deal make sense?

I can certainly understand not wanting to lose Hughes for nothing, as his scoring and SOG rate make him look like he well could become the next Nathan MacKinnon, or ever better, as he's on pace this season to – at age 21 – average 1.2 points per game and 4.5 SOG per game as a center.  The last center to meet all those criteria at age 21 or younger was some guy by the name of Mario Lemieux, so yeah, there's that.

Still, Hughes is extremely weak in each of HIT, BLK and FOW — that's three of the six offensive categories! No question that in this league, despite the scoring and SOG he stands to being to the table he's not a keeper over Tkachuk, who's right there with him in SOG but is a monster in hits and also puts up points.

Dahlin would be a considered a likely long-term upgrade over Hedman, although we're seeing more of the Hedman of old lately, and he's showing he's far from over the hill, plus he's solid in peripherals. Yes, there is a risk of Mikhail Sergachev gets installed as "the guy" at some point in the near future; however, with Dahlin there is the looming presence of Ower Power too. It's not like there aren't question marks with both; however, with Dahlin being so much younger and on a team that seems to be a rising offensive powerhouse, this is a deal that the GM should do what they can to make happen.

That having been said, Hedman and Hughes straight up for Dahlin is definitely an overpayment.  Yes, the other GM will likely counter that Hughes has less value because he's not going to be kept, and it will be difficult to counter that. But at least try to get a draft pick coming back in the deal, as then it's not highway robbery.

Topic #8 – Are we witnessing Pierre-Luc Dubois' long awaited breakout, or just a short term hot streak that isn't sustainable?

Just when we had Dubois pegged for a 60 point – if even that – player, he shows up this season and is producing above point per game pace. I don't blame the poster for wondering whether it can be sustained. Well, can it?

One thing we have to keep in mind is Dubois has been very vocal about his dissatisfaction being in Winnipeg. As it just so happens he's an RFA after this season, making it a natural time for him to be dealt. Could he be raising his effort level to coincide with these circumstances? We certainly can't rule that out; however, what is also true is Dubois is a somewhat larger player and lo and behold he's right at the 400-game mark, which is where larger players tend to have their breakouts.

Although the answer might lie in one – or a combination – of these factors, we also have to look at one ice metrics. What stands out immediately is his elevated SH%, which, at 16.5%, is about 50% higher than his norm of 12.6% coming into this season, and would be his highest mark ever for a complete campaign. Had he shot at his normal rate his goal total would be 15 instead of 20, and his scoring rate 82 points in a pro-rated 82 games, instead of his current 91 point pace.

Dubois also has never had a season where he averaged even one PPPt per every four games, yet for 2022-23 he's at one per every 2.5 contests. We can't point to him receiving increased PP time, as his deployment on the man advantage is in keeping with last season, when he tallied 18 PPPts in 81, a total it took him only 44 games to reach this season.

His secondary assists rate, although not high at 45.8%, is elevated by his standards. His IPPs are both in uncharted territory, which him only once having an overall IPP above 61% in the past four seasons, and it being 74.7% for 2022-23 that far. It's a similar story on the PP, where he'd been an albatross in only once having a PP IPP above 50% in the past four seasons and that figure being all the way up at 66.7% for 2022-23.

While this could just be a player finally connecting the dots, my radar is up…..a lot. For him to be doing so much better in so many areas while trying to improve his worth, I have serious concerns about whether he can produce at anywhere near this level going forward.  If I own Dubois in a keeper I might be looking to sell high, and I'm definitely not going out and trying to obtain him when he's unlikely to be more than a ~65-point player when he comes back to earth.

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Questions for Mailbag column needed

The upcoming edition of my monthly mailbag has plenty of room for questions. To get yours to me, you can either private message “rizzeedizzee” via the DobberHockey Forums, or send an email to [email protected] with “Roos Mailbag” as the subject line.