Josh Norris returned to the Ottawa lineup on Wednesday night as the team hosted Pittsburgh, as close to a must-win game as there can be for the Senators in the middle of January. He had been out nearly three months thanks to a shoulder injury, which was a tough blow for a team and player looking to build off his 35-goal campaign from a season ago. He started the game between Alex DeBrincat and Claude Giroux, though it was Giroux taking the faceoffs.

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We got some major updates on a number of injuries in Montreal:

There is a chance that Slafkovsky’s rookie season is finished, which can cut two ways. He has a half-season of NHL experience, should be all-systems-go for September, and doesn’t have to play out a lottery season on a team that is going to lose a lot of games. But he also loses that development time and any significant time missed for such a young player can be very impactful.

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One thing I like to do during the fantasy season is three different quarterly check-ins: one after the first 20-ish games, one after the next 20 games, and then another after Game 60 or so. While I do very early check-ins – maybe after the first 10 games – to see how players are trending to make some early decisions, it's the 20-game mark that starts to solidify an outlook on a player's season. After that, it's checking in to see how they are doing within those parameters.

With that said, every team except San Jose has played at least 20 games since December 1^st, so let's take a look at some performances in that span, and if there's anything new to glean from it that we can apply to the fantasy realm. Data from our Frozen Tools or Natural Stat Trick, unless otherwise indicated.

Elias Pettersson

The leader by 5-on-5 points per 60 minutes in this stretch of games is the titular Pettersson. It is just 14 such points in 18 contests but speaks to the productivity he's seen not only lately, but all season. In fact, looking at the whole season, he's fifth in the league in primary points/60 at 5-on-5, which excludes the randomness of secondary assists. (The leader, by the way, of all players with at least 40 games under their belts is Jared McCann. It really is curious what so many other franchises did not see in this player because he's been a good player for years now.) As we sit here on Wednesday afternoon, Pettersson's 82-game paces are for 36 goals and 104 points, which would be career-highs (the latter by a lot). He has also done that with zero power-play goals to his name.

Just beware with Pettersson moving forward. If I'm in a one-year league and looking to the fantasy playoffs (or a stretch run in roto formats), analyzing whether Pettersson can repeat his first half is a must. This recent super-elite production at 5-on-5 is a function of the team shooting nearly 14% with him on the ice (unsustainable) and also an individual points percentage (IPP) that was 87.5%, over 20% higher than the league median. That IPP would also be a career-high over a full season after posting three straight campaigns between 60-70%. He could maintain his current level of play – which would be Hart Trophy-worthy if his team wasn't sliding into the lottery – and still see a point drop-off without significant improvements in his PP production. Owners need to decide whether they want to risk losing out on a potential 100-point season or whether there's going to be a second-half decline that they should trade out from as soon as possible.

Matt Boldy and Filip Chytil

Let's start with the recently extended Boldy and his production collapse. He is pointless in five straight games, is goalless in his last 10 games, and has 13 points since December 1^st, about a 50-point pace over a full season. Why is he on this list, then? It is his shooting: he is seventh among all players in shot attempt rate per 60 minutes at all strengths in this stretch. Only David Pastrnak, Alex Ovechkin, Nathan MacKinnon, Timo Meier, Jason Robertson, and Patrik Laine are higher. It has also seen Boldy skate under 17 minutes a game, so his shots per game aren't to the same level as some of those players at 3.1, and that's part of the problem. Another part of the problem is the team scoring just 3.6 goals per 60 minutes with him on the ice in that span. That includes power-play time, so it's not a great mark, especially when his rookie season saw him at 5.3. A decline in on-ice goals – largely driven by a drop in shooting percentage – has led to a decline in production even as he's shooting more. Here's something to note:

• Over his two seasons, when Boldy has had Kevin Fiala on his wing at 5-on-5, the team generates 3.1 expected goals and 4.8 actual goals per 60 minutes.
• Over his two seasons, when Boldy has not had Fiala on his wing at 5-on-5, the team generates 2.2 expected goals and 1.7 actual goals per 60 minutes.

Looking at just this season, Minnesota generates 2.3 expected goals and 1.8 actual goals/60 at 5-on-5 with Boldy on the ice. Those are just flat-out bad offensive numbers. He needs help so we'll see what the team does at the trade deadline.

With all that said, things have been much better with Ryan Hartman back, as they're sitting with 2.8 expected goals and 3.2 actual goals per 60 minutes at 5-on-5. As long as he stays with competent offensive line mates, and maybe gets some help at the deadline, there is a production uptick coming from the 21-year-old winger. Now might be the time to see if his owner is being frustrated by the relative lack of production lately. It might not cost that much to acquire him.

We won't go into heavy detail on Filip Chytil here because his fantasy value is precarious. He is still a ways away from top PP minutes and having the Mika Zibanejad/Vincent Trocheck duo ahead of him means even heavy TOI games from Chytil are 17-18 minutes, with most games somewhere in the 13- to 16-minute range. Limited TOI, secondary PP minutes, and playing away from the team's top offensive stars is going to keep Chytil's fantasy value minimal for this season.

Now that the caveats are out of the way, to the good stuff: Chytil is seventh in the league in shot attempt rate per 60 minutes at 5-on-5 since December 1^st. The only people ahead of him are Meier, Boldy, Pastrnak, Andrei Svechnikov, William Nylander, and Mikael Backlund (which is a story in itself). He has 13 points in his last 19 games, averaging 2.8 shots per outing despite just 14:10 in TOI per contest. When looking at the season in its entirety, the only Rangers forward with a higher points/60 rate at 5-on-5 than Chytil is Artemi Panarin. Across the league, he is top-20 in primary points/60 at 5-on-5, and tied with luminaries like Sidney Crosby and Mitch Marner.

Again, the problem is the depth at his position that the Rangers have, and will have for years considering the length of relevant contracts. It is a wonder if he's going to be able to take the next step in the fantasy game regardless of his level of play. He as in intriguing question in dynasty leagues for that reason. It does seem to be all coming together for Chytil, though, so maybe he can pull a Roope Hintz and just force his way to the top of the lineup in a year or two.

Nick Perbix

So, uh, the top-3 names in shots/60 minutes since December 1^st are Roman Josi, Dougie Hamilton, and… Nick Perbix? He also ranks eighth in shot attempts/60 so it's not a function of getting lucky with accuracy in a small sample. He has 41 shots in his last 19 games skating under 15 minutes a night as a defenceman. That feels almost impossible and yet here we are. On the season, he leads Tampa Bay defencemen in both points and shots per 60 minutes at 5-on-5. That is a blue line with Victor Hedman and Mikhail Sergachev, mind you.

This is another situation where depth will hurt his fantasy potential. All of Hedman, Sergachev, and Erik Cernak should be around for at least two more years, and Sergachev far beyond that. If Perbix can become a good offensive blue liner, can he ever earn top PP minutes, even 3-4 years down the road? It's a long time from now in hockey terms, so anything can happen, but it is an uphill climb.

All the same, the Bolts may have found another good late-round pick. We need to see more than 35 games from him at 15 minutes a night, but it's a start, and he may not need PP1 minutes for fantasy value, just 19-20 minutes a game to stuff those peripherals.