Tuesday Game Picks: Goals Galore In Nashville; Reinhart Firing Pucks

Will McLean

2023-02-28

We are back with another Tuesday edition of Game Picks, where we give out a Gold, Silver, and Bronze selection every Tuesday during the NHL season. The NHL schedule is packed with 10 games tonight, which provides us with all the betting options we could ever ask for. I've done my best to research each of the games and I think I have found some winners. The three matchups I am most interested in are the Florida Panthers @ Tampa Bay Lightning, Columbus Blue Jackets @ Buffalo Sabres, and the Pittsburgh Penguins @ Nashville Predators. Hopefully, I can sweep the board again tonight.

Below I highlight my Gold, Silver, and Bronze selections for tonight's games. Last Tuesday was a really good day that saw me go (3 – 0), bringing my season record to a subpar (17 – 19).

Gold Selection

Pittsburgh Penguins @ Nashville Predators – Pick: Over 6 (-135)

I am making this play solely on recency bias. The Pittsburgh Penguins and Nashville Predators have both been allowing around half a goal more per game over their last 10 games than their season averages. This season the Penguins are averaging 3.20 goals against per game, but over their last 10 they have been allowing 3.70 per game. The Predators have averaged 2.98 goals against per game this year, but over their past 10 games, they have been allowing 3.40 per game. On the offensive side of things, the Penguins have been scoring at a similar pace to their season average, whereas the Predators have exploded offensively. Over their past 10 games, the Predators are averaging 3.70 goals per game, a huge jump up from their season average of 2.98 goals per game. The big changes in play offensively and defensively for the Predators recently have led to them playing in five straight games where there were seven or more goals scored. The defensive and goaltending struggles for the Penguins lately have led to four of their past six games having at least seven total goals. Knowing that nine of the last 11 games, involving either the Penguins or the Predators, have had at least seven goals make this an easy bet for me to make.

Silver Selection

Florida Panthers @ Tampa Bay Lightning – Pick: Sam Reinhart Over 2.5 Shots (-118)

Reinhart has been a borderline lock when it comes to this bet as of late. He has been averaging 4.30 shots per game over his last 10, a far cry from his season average of 2.79 shots per game. A big reason for his massive uptick in shots is that he is attempting a lot more shots lately. This season he has been averaging 4.85 shot attempts per game, but over his last 10 games he is attempting 6.50 shots per game. His recent shot outburst has led to him recording three or more shots in five straight games, and 11 of 12 overall. Reinhart has played the Lightning three times so far this season and has recorded 10 shots in total, showing me that Battle of Florida doesn't phase him. Also, the Lightning have been giving up the fifth most shots in the NHL to right wingers over their past five games, which bodes well for Reinhart lining up on the right side. The fact that you can find this good of odds still, considering Reinhart has won this exact bet in 11 of 12 games, makes this bet far too enticing to pass up.

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Bronze Selection

Columbus Blue Jackets @ Buffalo Sabres – Pick: Sabres In Regulation (-130)

A playoff spot is in sight for the Buffalo Sabres for the first time in a long time, and they've been playing like they want it as of late. The Sabres have been a streaky team this season, when they've been good they've been very good, and when they've been bad they've been very bad. Over the last two weeks, they've been very good. They have won five of their last six games, averaging 5.0 goals per game in that span, and didn't score fewer than three goals in any of those six games. The Blue Jackets will be starting Elvis Merzlikins tonight, which should boost the chances of a Sabres win. Merzlikins has a 4.14 GAA and a .876 SV%, the third lowest SV% and the highest GAA in the NHL among goalies who've played at least 10 games. Oh, and he has allowed at least three goals in nine straight games. When playing the Sabres, who score the second most goals per game in the NHL, if you don't get good goaltending things can get pretty ugly in a hurry. So starting one of the worst, if not the worst, goalies in the NHL this season does not look good for the Blue Jackets chances to get a win on the road in Buffalo tonight. Speaking of the Blue Jackets playing on the road, they have won only six out of their 27 road games this season, another reason to bet on the Sabres tonight. With how important every game is to the Sabres playoff hopes, how bad Merzlikins has been this season, and how much the Blue Jackets struggle on the road, I expect the Sabres to get the win tonight.

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UPCOMING GAMES

Apr 16 - 19:04 MTL vs CAR
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Apr 16 - 19:04 N.J vs DET
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