Saturday Game Props: Bet Under on Early Bruins/Bolts Game

Brad Hayward

2023-03-25

I'm starting with a bone to pick. Another hockey writer, on another site (and no I don't do their advertising work for them) wrote about the Pittsburgh Penguins' lack of younger quality players – specifically top-five draft picks over the past several years – and that being the reason the Pens are fading, and will fall over the next few seasons. Just like Detroit, he said (ignoring similar Chicago).

I'll counter that his argument is insane. Building up to Stanley Cup championships in 2016 and 2017, I'm guessing nobody would have traded assets for prospects. In 2018, clearly still in the hunt.  So then 2019, a full season past the Cups, right? If it's predictable that they'd have multiple first-round exits, then by that logic the Lightning should tear it down now, and the Avalanche trade for picks next year. Yes, I said "insane."

Quick question: In the seven drafts that might be relevant for the Pittsburgh team today – from 2012-2018, the players chosen with the top-EIGHT picks of those drafts have won how many Stanley Cup rings? Two. Nathan MacKinnon and Cale Makar. How low did Colorado need to fall to get those guys? I'd bet most Penguin fans wouldn't trade three Cups in ten years for an extra draft prospect.  

By the way, comparing with Edmonton – four selections at #1 overall in six years plus Leon Draisaitl at #3 and Darnell Nurse at #7…  zero championship rings. No, I'd say Pittsburgh is pretty happy and not trading their present, or even their future, for anyone else's past. I wonder if "A.S." is a PAID hockey contributor, or just a frustrated Oilers' fan.

On to Saturday props. After a 5-1 result a week ago I'm optimistic for today. Matchups include those old-school Penguins hosting the equally old Washington Capitals. Another writer penned that the Caps "regained their magic" – I'm not making this up! – with a victory over Chicago on Thursday. Hey, you gotta write something. 

Gold Selection:  Washington Capitals @ Pittsburgh Penguins – Pick: Pens to win (-140ML)

The whole Alexander Ovechkin vs. Sidney Crosby rivalry was enough to get this contest national ABC network coverage in the U.S., but the teams' similarities are real. Aging and dropping out of relevance, with only Pittsburgh having a last shot at playoff glory. The best players on either team are on the wrong side of 35, let alone 30. The Pens have $34 million invested next year into the only seven forwards under contract, and those seven will average 34 years of age. The Caps' top seven forwards, $48 million committed to players only one year younger. So nostalgia will win the evening.  

Silver Selection: Tampa Bay Lightning @ Boston Bruins – Pick: under 6.0 goals (-105)

You want a late-March statement game, you got one. This match really means little in the Atlantic Division standings, Boston is comfortably ahead and Tampa will face Toronto unless the St. Lawrence River turns to flow to the west. Tight checking, elite goalkeepers, few penalties.   And in seven of the past nine games between these two powers, I'd have been right. The Bruins have won five in a row, the Bolts have lost their last three. Won't matter. This early game (1:00 pm Eastern start) will be worth giving up golf, or out west you can watch during brunch.  

Bronze Selection: Chicago Blackhawks @ Minnesota Wild – Pick: Ryan Hartman over 2.5 SOG (-135)

I didn't know, think, or really believe that Hartman has had successive games with no shots. Like, really?! His previous eight contests, 26. Minnesota will dominate this matchup, and pepper Alex Stalock with 35+ pucks on net, with Hartman returning to form. 

Side bet #1: Minnesota to cover -1.5 goals (-140)

Side bet #2: Colton Parayko, over 1.5 blocks (+100)

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Side bet #3: Carolina to win over Toronto (-145ML)

Season stats:

Gold 7-5-0

Silver 5-6-1

Bronze 7-5-0

Side Bets 22-11

Total Saturday Record 41-27-1

Brad Hayward writes a weekly DFS column for Dobber hockey, and is a recently-retired surgeon.   Message him @dokhockey. 

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