Tuesday Game Picks: Avalanche And Golden Knights To Keep Rolling; Marchessault Shooting Often

Will McLean

2023-04-18

Our first Tuesday edition of Game Picks of the playoffs is tonight, where we give out a Gold, Silver, and Bronze selection every Tuesday throughout the NHL playoffs. It's day two of the Stanley Cup playoffs and there are four fantastic games on the schedule, I couldn't be any more excited if I tried. I've done my best to research each of the games and I think I have found some good bets. The two matchups I am most interested in are the Seattle Kraken @ Colorado Avalanche and Winnipeg Jets @ Vegas Golden Knights games. Hopefully, I can start the playoffs off with a bang and sweep the board.

Below I highlight my Gold, Silver, and Bronze selections for tonight's games.

Gold Selection

Seattle Kraken @ Colorado Avalanche – Pick: Avalanche In Regulation (-124)

I'm going to do my best to not overthink things on the second day of the playoffs. The Colorado Avalanche are the reigning champs and have been fantastic since the deadline, I expect them to win tonight. Over their last 20 games, the Avalanche have put up a record of (16-3-1), totaling 33 points, only the Bruins had more points over that span with 34. Over this stretch the Avalanche are averaging a hair under four goals per game, having scored a whopping 79 goals. The way the Avs are scoring goals lately doesn't look good for the Kraken, considering the goaltending the Kraken have had this season. The Kraken are expected to start Philipp Grubauer tonight who owns a .895 save percentage this season, the only starting goalie in the playoffs to have a save percentage lower than .910, and it's way lower. The Avalanche will be starting Alexandar Georgiev tonight who posted a .919 save percentage this season, tied for the eighth best of goalies who played more than 10 games. With the Avalanche having the much better goaltending and the ability to score a ton of goals, I don't think the Kraken will be able to score enough to keep up.

Silver Selection

Winnipeg Jets @ Vegas Golden Knights – Pick: JonathanMarchessault Over 2.5 Shots (-151)

A couple of reasons for making this play, Marchessault shoots more when at home, and he has been really good against the Winnipeg Jets this season. Marchessault averages 2.84 shots per game while on the road, pretty good, but when playing at home he averaged 3.32 shots per game, half a shot more is quite the difference. His shot production on home ice has led to him recording at least three shots in seven of his last eight home games including five straight. Also, he faced the Jets three times in the regular season, and he recorded at least three shots in every game. With how well Marchessault has been performing on home ice, and his success against the Jets, I expect Marchessault to rack up the shots tonight.

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Bronze Selection

Winnipeg Jets @ Vegas Golden Knights – Pick: Golden Knights Money Line (-145)

The Golden Knights have been one of the best teams in the NHL since the trade deadline and I expect them to continue that trend tonight when they host the Winnipeg Jets. Over their past 20 games, the Golden Knights have gone (14-3-3) for 31 points, only trailing the Bruins, Oilers, and Avalanche over that span, not bad company to keep.  During the same stretch, the Jets went (11-8-10), not too bad but nothing to write home about. Both teams allowed the same number of goals over their past 20 games, but the Knights actually scored 15 more goals than the Jets. The Golden Knights offence will be getting another boost tonight too when Mark Stone makes his first appearance since the middle of January. A big tipping point for me tonight is how well the Golden Knights have been playing at home lately, and how the Jets have been struggling on the road. The Golden Knights have won 12 of their last 15 home games, and averaged 4.13 goals per game over that stretch, scoring 20 more goals than their opponents. The Jets on the other hand have only won six of their last 16 road games, averaging only 2.19 goals per game in the process, while also being outscored by 13 over that span. Also, the Golden Knights are (3-0) versus the Jets this season, that has to be a little confidence booster for the Knights heading into the playoffs. Considering how hot the Golden Knights have been since the deadline, how dominant they've been on home ice lately, and how much the Jets are struggling on the road, I expect the Golden Knights to take game one in front of a raucous Vegas crowd tonight.

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