Saturday’s Picks/Props: Watch For Shot Totals

Brad Hayward

2023-06-10

I chose the wrong hero for my Thursday article, but a Panthers' overtime win?  Yeah, nailed that one. Tonight – does anyone have a crystal ball without the smoke from Ontario forest fires, or without the bias that most hockey fans proudly carry ALL THE TIME?

Sergei Bobrovsky was the real first star of Game Three, despite the late heroics of Matthew Tkachuk and Carter Verhaeghe.  He has so many game-saving stops that have propelled Florida through three improbable series wins, that I'd play Bob as my hero tonight – except that his teammates can't seem to stay out of the penalty box.  

Gold Selection:  Tkachuk has fewer than four shots on goal (-135)

Not only Tkackuk, but the DraftKings line is drawn at +/- 3.5 shots for five others – Brandon Montour, Sam Bennett, Verhaeghe, Jack Eichel, and Jonathan Marchessault.   With the tight checking and defensive blocks, I don't envision the shooting gallery that would represent. The Panthers would love that game, yes, but not gonna happen. Any of the others, except maybe Montour, I'd make the same "under" wager. 

Silver Selection:  Chandler Stephenson has more than one shot on goal (-120)

What's this? The same site sets the shots line at +/-1.5 for Stephenson, Anthony Duclair (-180), William Karlsson, and Reilly Smith. Of those, I took the first power-play guy, remembering that Florida keeps taking penalties and pronouncing that as "their identity." But a parlay bet including Duclair would pay near 200%, so there's an idea. 

Bronze Selection:  Bobrovsky has 28 or more saves.

Yep, this requires that he's not pulled in the first period (duh), but I feel it's Adin Hill's turn to lay the unwelcome egg tonight, and that Jonathan Quick mops up. I'm bold with that, but couldn't put my money behind it.  Hill has been the surprise netminder of the playoffs – ok, after Akira Schmid – but he's due a back-to-earth performance. And not secretly, I'd love this series to go seven games, regardless of the victor. 

Bets we can't make:  No major nor misconduct penalties. The stakes are too high. And that the team who scores the game's SECOND goal will win.  

Have a great weekend. Hopefully watching hockey is a part of it. 

@dokhockey

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