Every Sunday, we share 21 Fantasy Rambles from our writers at DobberHockey. These thoughts are curated from the past week’s 'Daily Ramblings'.

Writers/Editors: Ian Gooding, Michael Clifford, Alexander MacLean and Dobber. And this week, Peter Harling and Ben Gehrels stepping in for Ian during his vacation.

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1. During my vacation, my father texted me stating that William Nylander just got traded. When I replied asking him which team, he said he just saw it pop up on a TV at a restaurant but didn’t catch the team and thought maybe I knew. When I was able to check Twitter, I didn’t see a Nylander trade, so he must have missed the word “rumor.” Regardless, maybe it’s a sign that we should expect a Nylander trade soon.

If another rumor is true that Nylander wants at least $10 million when his contract expires next summer, the Leafs would seem foolish to give him that amount. Even if Nylander were to reach 100 points for the first time in his career, the Leafs already have three other players earning at least $10 million. Not a lot of space left to address other team needs. In addition, new GM Brad Treliving has experience in trading stars, having done so with Matthew Tkachuk last offseason. Even with Jake Muzzin expected to go on LTIR, the Leafs still need to shed just over $3 million in cap space while also finding room for RFA Ilya Samsonov. A Matt Murray buyout would be a start but won’t fix all of their cap issues.

With all the expiring contracts next summer (Murray, Nylander, Auston Matthews, TJ Brodie, and the newly-signed Tyler Bertuzzi, Max Domi, and John Klingberg), it feels like the Leafs are going to try for one last push with the current core. If they fall short of expectations, which should be beyond just getting past the first round by now, then it might be time to blow things up. As much as they might not win the Stanley Cup with the current group, major changes won’t necessarily make things better. Buffalo, Detroit, and Ottawa all seem to be making slow-but-steady strides, which should make the playoff race tighter. (july8)

2. I just returned from Nashville attending the NHL Draft and have some thoughts to share on the experience. First off, Connor Bedard. No question he was going number one and that he is regarded as a “generational player” the likes of Auston Matthews, Nathan MacKinnon or possibly even Connor McDavid. The question everyone wants to know is how high do you draft him? His dynasty value is off the charts, but will he produce points right out of the draft? The past few years first overall selection has failed to do so. Last year Juraj Slafkovsky played in only 39 games scoring 10 points. Owen Power returned to the NCAA in 2021, Alexis Lafreniere had 21 points in 56 games in 2020. Jack Hughes only managed 21 points in 61 games after the 2019 draft. Arguably the best immediate impact from the draft in the past five years was in 2018 when Rasmus Dahlin scored 44 points as a defenseman through a full 82 games season.

But comparing apples to apples lets look at what some of the players Bedard is being compared to did as rookies. Auston Matthews kicked in the front door of the NHL with a four-goal statement game in his first career game and finished the year with 34 goals and 69 points in 82 games.

Connor McDavid was impactful day-one as well with 48 points in 45 games, just over a point per game as a rookie. He followed that up with his first 100 point season.

So, what does this mean for Bedard? In the latest Top 300 Keeper League Skater rankings by Dobber, he ranks Bedard eighth overall. That is some elite company, and it means you should pick him in the top ten range or even higher if you are starting a keeper league. I would forecast Bedard to score at least 60 points, but probably closer to the neighbourhood of 30 goals and 80 points as a rookie. (july7)

3. The draft really began with the second pick, and the odds-on favorite was Adam Fantilli, but the Ducks went with Leo Carlsson, allowing Fantilli to be snapped up by the Columbus Blue Jackets. Fantilli has quickly put to bed any concerns he would return to Michigan for a sophomore year. He will be inserted into the NHL and be given the opportunity to center a line with either or both Johnny Gaudreau and Patrik Laine. If I am in a prospect draft, I am taking Fantilli second overall based on the upside of his immediate opportunity in Columbus. Even if he does not supplant Boone Jenner as the number one center this year, he still likely does no worse than second line center between Kent Johnson and Kirill Marchenko. He should be a lock for 20 goals and 25 assists. (july7)

4. Ryan Leonard is a player I had ranked higher than most and certainly higher than the eight overall. I think his impact at the NHL will be tremendous, he has it all. Size, mobility, hockey sense, compete, playmaking and finishing ability. His role with the US National Team asked him to be a physical goal scorer, but do not underestimate his puck skills and playmaking ability. (july7)

5. Talking to many scouts at the draft, there were a lot of opinions that the best defenseman in the draft may turn out to be Dmitri Simashev, the 6-4 fleet footed Russian. He is a very raw and long-term project, but his upside could be tremendous. It will take him time to realize his massive potential in the NHL and his fantasy upside may not match his NHL upside, but if you want to take a bit of a gamble, and can wait up to five years, the payoff could be juicy. The same goes for their other first round selection, another big Russian in Daniil But. (july7)

6. Anze Kopitar has played in Los Angeles for a very long time – 17 seasons, to be exact. Getting to 20 seasons is now even more of a possibility now that the Kings have signed him to a two-year extension starting next season. Kopitar is set to earn $7 million per season starting in 2024-25 after his contract with a cap hit of $10 million expires at the end of this coming season.

Kopitar is now 35 years old, an age where a player’s production is on the decline if they have made it that far in their career. Over the past four seasons, Kopitar has been consistent with a point-per-game range of 0.8 – 0.9 PTS/GP over the last four seasons. He even finished on the high end of that range (74 PTS in 82 GP) last season. In addition, only three players (Patrice Bergeron, Sidney Crosby, Bo Horvat) won more faceoffs than Kopitar (899 FOW) in 2022-23, while he finished sixth in total faceoffs (1608 FO).

Once all of the top-tier centers are drafted in single-season leagues, Kopitar is a reliable option who tends to fall below his actual value in single-season leagues – sometimes below the top 100. I currently have Kopitar ranked at 51 in the Top 100 Roto Rankings. Do you think that’s too high, too low, or about right? Let me know. (july8)

7. Vinnie Hinostroza, who has been a favorite of Dobber in the past, has signed a one-year contract worth $775,000 with Pittsburgh. Hinostroza recorded 11 points in 26 games with the Sabres last season, averaging 12:36 in icetime per game. The 29-year-old Hinostroza has shown flashes of brilliance in the past, including a career-high of 39 points with Arizona in 2018-19. He could hold some short-term fantasy value with the Penguins, especially if he can find his way onto a line with Sidney Crosby or Evgeni Malkin. He is more likely a spare part who could be healthy scratched often, though. (july8)

8. The Penguins have also signed Andreas Johnsson to a one-year contract worth $800,000. A one-time prospect of the Leafs who recorded 43 points for the Buds in 2018-19, Johnsson split time between the NHL and AHL last season, recording just three assists in 13 games between the Sharks and Devils. He also appears to be in a similar spot to Hinostroza.

Also:

Veteran depth forward Pierre-Edouard Bellemare has signed a one-year, $775,000 contract with Seattle. It may not seem that Bellemare has been in the league that long, but he is now 38 years old. He made his NHL debut as a 29-year-old for the Flyers in 2014-15. He has also played for Vegas, Colorado, and Tampa Bay, so he brings a winning pedigree to the Kraken.

Seattle has also signed Will Borgen to a two-year, $5.4 million contract. In his first full NHL season, Borgen was second on the Kraken with 203 Hits. He slots in as an effective third-pair defenseman.

The Kings have signed Tobias Bjornfot to a two-year contract worth $775,000. Bjornfot spent most of last season in the AHL, playing in just 10 games for the Kings. Expect the 22-year-old to battle once again for a spot on the Kings’ roster. (july8)

9. For the next little while, there are going to be a lot of articles and Ramblings covering free agency, and the surrounding trades. This one will be no different! Any period with so many transactions should have a lot of coverage. Don’t forget to check out the individual breakdowns from myself, Ian, and Dobber from Free Agent Frenzy itself.

I want to go over some signings or trades that I think could have a good amount of fantasy impact this coming season, positive or negative, outside of obvious names like Tyler Bertuzzi or Dmitry Orlov. 

Max Pacioretty: When he returns from his Achilles surgery, Pacioretty will be playing behind Alex Ovechkin. That caps (pun!) his ice time already, so his fantasy value will rely on the power play. Washington should have all their top stars back, but if Pacioretty isn’t back until, say, November, there could be injury or underperformance that leads to Patches getting top PPTOI immediately.

The problem is that, in Vegas, Patches often played his off-wing on the power play. That puts him firmly in Nicklas Backstrom‘s spot. One option would be moving Backstrom to Kuznetsov's spot, and then Pacioretty's in Backstrom's old place. Either way, it is hard to see the team leaving Backstrom off the top PP unit, but we’ll find out once the season starts. If Pacioretty is playing on the second line at even strength and second PP unit, he won’t have the overall fantasy impact we’re hoping for. Fantasy owners will have to take a leap of faith at the draft table or be vigilant on the waiver wire. (july6)

10. Joonas Korpisalo: The big goalie signing of the day was Korpisalo heading to Ottawa. It has been quite some time since the Senators had reliable goaltending and they’re now hoping that Korpisalo can be the missing piece they need to finally make a playoff push.

Which Korpisalo shows up is a fair question to ask. The hip injury/surgery from 2021-22 has been well-documented, but it isn’t as if the early portions of his career were outstanding. His first five seasons (2015-20) as a backup/1B saw a goals saved above expected per 60 minutes similar to Cam Ward and Jimmy Howard. His high-danger save percentage at 5-on-5 from 2017-20 was in the 35^th percentile of the league. He had a great rookie season and then was roughly average-or-worse for four straight years after. Then the injuries hit, tanking a couple seasons before rebounding in 2022-23. He has played parts of eight seasons and two of them were very good while six were average-or-worse. One of good ones just happened to be the most recent.

If Korpisalo is the guy he was in his rookie season, or in 2022-23, for the majority of this contract, it’s a home run. If he’s the guy he was from 2016-2022, this is an anchor. Anyone that says they know which goalie is going to show up is misleading, at best. Things could get ugly if he doesn’t repeat his 22-23 performance and the Sens remain as undisciplined as they were last season. If he does repeat his 22-23 performance, though, there’s tremendous upside in fantasy. Goalies are volatile simply due to their position, but he has true boom/bust value in 2023-24. (july6)

11. Although it seemed likely someone would take a dice roll on Filip Zadina, the 6th-overall pick from 2018, he passed through waivers on Tuesday and will stay with the Red Wings for now. (On Thursday, the RedWings placed Zadina on unconditional waivers for the purpose of terminating his contract.)

There was a time when people were dumping on Ottawa for taking Brady Tkachuk at 4th that year instead of Zadina. That sure sounds odd these days. Not that Red Wings fans need any more salt in the wound, but it is remarkable to think that Quinn Hughes was taken right after him, and Evan Bouchard and Noah Dobson were taken 10th and 12th respectively.

In all fairness, the forward depth wasn’t great in 2018 outside of Svechnikov and Tkachuk, and there were a number of other high-profile busts that year, including Vitali Kravtsov (NYR, 9th), Grigori Denisenko (FLA, 15th), Ryan Merkley (SJS, 21st). But imagine the impact on those franchises if Ottawa had gone for Zadina and Brady fell to the Wings.

12. There was some “he said, she said” drama this week over in Anaheim. After John Gibson was quoted as saying, “I am not playing another game for the Anaheim Ducks,” which of course spread like wildfire through every quarter of the universe, Gibson’s agent fired back on “Frank Seravelli’s False Claim Regarding John Gibson“. I also noticed that the Gibson camp is not denying that he said those words, just disputing who he said them to. The statement insists that he “never stated to any member of the Anaheim Ducks front office any such statement.”

That makes me think there might be some truth to this storyline—although that is of course pure, inflammatory speculation. It seems a bit strange that Gibson would want out just as the Ducks are beginning to accumulate a serious talent pool at all positions (Trevor Zegras, Troy Terry, Mason McTavish, Leo Carlsson, Olen Zelleger, Pavel Mintyukov, Lukas Dostal, etc.).

On the other hand, perhaps enough is enough. According to Hockey Reference, Gibson became the first goalie since 2009 to allow 200+ goals against in a season. If Gibson were to depart, Dostal stocks would get a serious boost, even if they brought in a veteran replacement. The young Czech posted a 62% Quality Start rate last year across 19 games and posted an impressive 0.912 save percentage for the San Diego Gulls (AHL), who were last in the American league by a country mile.

13. After acquiring Damon Severson and Ivan Provorov over the offseason, Columbus sure has a log jam on the back end now. That is a great problem for them but a challenge for fantasy. Assuming everyone is healthy, we might see something like this to begin the year:

Werenski – Severson
Provorov – Boqvist
Bean – Peeke

That is a ton of speed and offensive capability, as Werenski, Severson, Bean, and Boqvist are all mobile defenders constantly looking for opportunities to join the rush. Time will tell if Provorov, Andrew Peeke, Eric Gudbranson, Nick Blankenburg, and Tim Berni can hold things down on the back end well enough for Columbus to come out ahead.

But assuming everyone is healthy, that is nine pro defencemen for six jobs—not counting any of the talented youngsters working their way up though the organization, including Denton Mateychuk, Stanislav Svozil, Corson Ceulemans, and most notably, David Jiricek. While the first three will ply their wares in the AHL this year, Jiricek’s 38 points in 55 AHL games suggest he is ready to take his booming slap shot and high-end all-around game to the highest level.

Unless there is another off-season trade or two, however, the numbers don’t seem to be in his favor. He’ll see call ups, but don’t count on NHL production from Jiricek yet in 2023-24.

14. We know their stars are going to miss time, but if everything comes together, could the Penguins have enough left in the tank for one more kick at the can?

A group headlined by Sidney Crosby, Evgeni Malkin, Jake Guentzel, Kris Letang, and Tristan Jarry should never be dismissed. But their depth is questionable, and their prospect pipeline is downright sad.

One name I will be watching with interest is Ty Smith. Although he was likely rushed to the NHL by New Jersey, he had insane scoring totals in junior—he did far better than Krebs in the WHL as a defenseman, for reference—transitioned well to the AHL, and has held his own at the NHL level too.

If his statline last year over a small, nine-game sample was any indication, there could be some hidden fantasy value here. He posted a 36-point pace on top of three shots, two hits, and half-a-hit per game.

15. Montreal extended RFA forward Rafael Harvey-Pinard to a two-year deal with an AAV of $1.1M. The 24-year-old had 20 points in 34 games playing in the NHL last season.

It was a good debut for the seventh-round winger from 2019,  even if he did shoot 24.1%. Whatever he did in the past, Harvey-Pinard managed 16 goals in 40 games in the AHL in 2022-23, managing over three shots per game. He also led Montreal’s AHL team in scoring the year prior. Two really good years in the AHL plus an excellent performance in the NHL. He had some excellent play-driving metrics in the NHL to go along with that high shooting percentage. All told, there may be something here and it’s well worth the bet the Habs just made. Considering his propensity for hits and blocks in that small NHL sample, there really could be a good multi-cat asset waiting to be had in September. (july4)

16. The Achilles injury to Jack Quinn is a very unfortunate one. He had a great AHL season a couple years ago, a very good rookie NHL effort in 2022-23, and looked as if he may be on his way to a breakout in 2023-24. His unfortunate injury does open a spot for one of the young(er) prospects to get a crack like Jiri Kulich, Isak Rosen, Matthew Savoie, or whomever. Hopefully, Quinn can find his game when he returns and starts to hit his peak in 2024. (july4)

17. The Rangers have about $6.1M in cap space with both Alexis Lafrenière and K’Andre Miller left to extend. Both are coming out of their entry-level deals and while either could sign long-term, it seems Miller is much more likely than Laffy. Neither are signed yet, though, and it’s really hard to see them coming in under $6.1M combined AAV. That would indicate there are more moves to make here, and possibly some significant ones. I like what New York has done so far this offseason, and it should help them score more consistently, but we’ll likely have to re-assess whenever the forthcoming signings and/or trades are finally made. (july4)

18. In Toronto, Tyler Bertuzzi makes a nice replacement for Michael Bunting to the benefit of both player and team: Bertuzzi will get high-end line mates to boost his value before his big free agency cash-in while the team gets a good player on a one-year deal. I really don’t get the John Klingberg signing but if he can be just bad defensively, and not one of the worst defensive players in modern NHL history, his offensive upside can help from the blue line.

The curious signing is Max Domi. Not that Domi is a bad player or anything – his playmaking and transition abilities are very good. But he’s not a player that can carry his own line, he takes a ton of penalties, and he’s poor defensively. The only line Toronto has that is almost certain to be good defensively is the top line with Auston Matthews and Mitch Marner. If Domi plays elsewhere – and he should – there could be difficulties in the defensive end, especially if he’s stuck on the third line with David Kampf. For all the vitriol thrown Pierre Engvall‘s way, I cannot wait to see the reactions to Domi and Klingberg once their defensive issues start glaring like Mr. Clean’s forehead after a shower. Toronto’s goaltending will be tested. (july4)

19. Jonathan Drouin is a bit of a long shot, but if a team is going to work with him and help him get on track, it’s Colorado. This organization helped Valeri Nichushkin become a star, and I don’t think many other teams would have had the same patience. With Gabriel Landeskog out for the season and Nichushkin having trouble staying healthy, there is a chance that Drouin gets some pretty good opportunities. But Drouin, himself, is more of an injury risk (and a risk for personal time off) than any of them. So first priority for him is to stay healthy both physically and mentally. But his 82-game pace has been between 41 points and 54 points for six straight seasons. Consistent. So Drouin is a safe pick for that production pace. Where his dark horse status comes into play is his health. If he can stay healthy, he’ll get looks with the big guns. (july3)

20. Finally, I can talk about the draft. Over 5000 words later, between yesterday’s Ramblings (regarding free agency) and all the Fantasy Impacts I’ve written over the past day and a half.

Biggest Shocker: Adam Fantilli falling to third overall. I was so very certain that he was going second, I even wrote an entire Ramblings about what to do about it, and which Ducks he would impact.

Runner-up: Zach Benson slipping all the way to 13^th. The Sabres are a team loaded with offense and upside. Both on the NHL roster and in the pipeline. And now they add another potential star for down the road? An embarrassment of riches.

Who makes the team this year? Connor Bedard will make Chicago (Duh), Leo Carlsson has signed in Sweden this year and next, but will get a long look in training camp and if he makes the team he can stay. I think he can make the team, but I’ll put it at 60/40 for now. Adam Fantilli will almost certainly make Columbus.

Will Smith (San Jose) has committed to Boston College. Matvei Michkov (Philadelphia) will be in the KHL for the next three seasons. (july3)

For the Draft's winners and losers, continue reading by following this link…

And, in case you missed it, I covered Ian for the Ramblings yesterday and had lots of great feedback for my ‘rants’. You can catch up on that here.

21. The hockey season never ends with prospects. The summer is full of events like development camps, the CHL Import Draft, The World Junior Summer Showcase, the Gretzky-Hlinka Tournament and Prospect Tournaments. The team at DobberProspects has you covered with the summer 32-in-32 series. Every day in July and August we spotlight an NHL team with off-season reviews including NHL Draft players, free agent signings, prospect rankings and organizational depth charts. Check in every day for the latest.

If you are looking for Organizational Rankings, we have you covered there too. The Editor team recently updated the NHL Organizational Rankings with each team’s top 15 prospects. The page includes a series of articles and podcasts that dive into the analysis.

Another article coming soon will be the 2023 Draft fantasy ranking. We released a version of this early in the year but will be revisiting that now that we know where all the players were selected and have a full season of scouting notes to work with.

And you can also tune in to the DobberProspects Report podcast every week where Victor Nuno and I share some deep cuts on fantasy hockey prospects for all you dynasty junkies out there.

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