Every Sunday, we share 21 Fantasy Rambles from our writers at DobberHockey. These thoughts are curated from the past week’s 'Daily Ramblings'.

Writers/Editors: Ian Gooding, Michael Clifford, Alexander MacLean and Dobber. This week, Grant Campbell pinches in for Alex (on vacation).

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1. According to CapFriendly, Tony DeAngelo is the first-ever player to ever be bought out more than once dating all the way back to 2006. (If you see any other players listed more than once, it is because the player’s buyout was split among two teams because of salary retained in a previous trade.)

The Flyers could not complete a trade with Carolina involving DeAngelo, which had been reported even before July 1. Heck, I even had a Fantasy Take partially typed out since it seemed to be agreed upon and was simply a matter of waiting for a CBA rule that disallowed a player to be traded back to his former team within a year if the trade included salary retention. Because I don’t like to let my work go to waste, I’ll share some of it (not the part about what would happen to his fantasy value with a return to Carolina):

DeAngelo recorded 42 points in 70 games with the Flyers. There are three things you need to know about DeAngelo: 1) His past behavior issues have been well-documented and may continue to be a red flag, 2) His defensive play can be worrisome (minus-27 last season), and 3) He can score, especially on the power play.

So, what’s next for DeAngelo? He had a season left on his two-year contract at $5 million per season. I predict he will still end up somewhere in the NHL, but likely at a discount and a very short-term deal. A minimal investment on TDA will mean that a coach won’t feel guilty about healthy scratching him if needed, as John Tortorella did for the last five games of the 2022-23 season. (july15)

2. Another bit of info that I’ll share from that unwritten fantasy take is that TDA’s departure from Philly will help Cam York‘s value. Only three of York’s 20 points in 2022-23 were on the power play, but he had a 40% share of the power-play minutes. As well, eight of his 13 points in the AHL last season were on the power play, so was clearly getting his reps there. The Flyers as a team had the league’s second-worst power play in 2022-23 (15.6 PP%), which means that York is more of a late-round sleeper as opposed to a universally rostered player. (july15)

3. As I work through my sections of the Fantasy Guide (available on July 28), I’ll try to note some observations that I’ve picked up along the way that could be useful in some way to fantasy leagues (or simply interesting, if not trivial). I’ll start with injuries and how they might affect certain teams this coming season. I don’t have any numbers to back my information, so these are just teams I’ve picked based on the number of significant players lost to injury during 2022-23 and number of significant players that could be lost to injury in 2023-24. 

First, who was hit hard by the injury bug in 2022-23 and how they might recover.

Columbus: The Blue Jackets were ravaged by injuries like no other team, especially on defense. So their fix for that this offseason was to… acquire a whole bunch of defensemen. Kidding aside, they went through 14 defensemen that played at least two games. This is a team that can only get better in 2023-24 if they can stay somewhat healthier. Only Anaheim had a worse goal differential than Columbus (-116), but that number should improve, which means that Elvis Merzlikins should be better… or at least not quite as bad. Don’t forget about Zach Werenski in your fantasy drafts, as his shoulder surgery made him a major contributor to the high man-games lost total.

[Follow the link for more…] (july15)

4. Even as an ardent Denis Gurianov proponent, I will admit it's hard to keep the faith as he enters his age-26 season. The tough part for him is that – at least until 2022-23 – Gurianov is a guy that likes playing fast off the rush. Conversely, Nashville was not good in this regard last year. They also have a lot of similar players in their forward mix, and most of them are homegrown talents, to some extent. It will be an uphill climb to fantasy relevance. 

The Preds signed Gurianov a couple days ago to a one-year deal with an $850K AAV. He was acquired by Montreal last season but the team let him walk this summer. He had seven goals and 10 assists in 66 games last year. (july14)

5. This week, we’ve spent a pair of Ramblings looking at changes in fantasy categories. With the increased scoring and penalties, it was sure to change statistical benchmarks, and it has. It goes far beyond points and penalties, though, as a huge rise in shot blocking has altered fantasy values for defensemen and the distribution of hits and shots has changed among forwards. Go read the Ramblings from Tuesday for a macro view of changes in fantasy categories, and the one from yesterday that drills down to changes in peripheral rates based on production levels.

To round out the theme, we’re going to focus even further and get to specific players. Knowing how stat totals/values are changing is one thing but knowing which players to pursue (or not) is another.

The earlier Ramblings focused on rates per game played because that’s how fantasy leagues are run. Today, we’re going to incorporate per-minute rates because changes in a player’s role can boost or decrease value per-game value, and those changes are very important in fantasy hockey. Defensemen are first on the docket, followed by some forwards. So, let’s dig for some multi-cat value. Below, we check out Jake Walman, MacKenzie Weegar and Jordan Greenway. (july14)

6. For example: There has been a lot of talk of how the acquisition of Shayne Gostisbehere will affect Moritz Seider. That makes sense, but there’s also Jake Walman, who had 84 blocks and 100 shots over his final 44 games of last season. He skated 17:36 a game in 2022-23 through the end of December, and that jumped to 20:38 each night afterwards in that 44-game stretch. Gostisbehere is an impediment for PP time while the Justin Holl signing means competition for even-strength TOI.

Walman should still see around 20 minutes a night, and that means huge block totals and adequate hit rates. More points will (hopefully) come with Alex DeBrincat in the fold, but his multi-cat value is high already. The growing competition is an ongoing concern, however. (july14)

7. MacKenzie Weegar saw a sizable production drop in his first season with Calgary, not all of it related to losing over two minutes a night in ice time. The curious thing is that despite 161 fewer minutes played in 2022-23 than 2021-22, he posted more hits (186 to 179). His block rates went down, and his shots per minute as well, but his shot attempts were consistent. If he can hit the net with his usual rate in the upcoming season, his shots will rebound, but the rise in shot blocking across the league does not make that a certainty.

Of course, it’s the prospect of a new coach that is enticing here. If Weegar can earn more ice time again, everything should rebound, including his production, and he’ll come at a nice discount in September. (july14)

8. In his Ramblings on Monday, Dobber brought up that Jordan Greenway skated with Tage Thompson, at times, following Greenway’s trade from Minnesota. Looking back at his 2018-2022 totals, Greenway compared favourably to Vladislav Namestnikov at 5-on-5. That may not seem like much, but Namestnikov had a three-year stretch that saw him average 15 goals, 18 assists, 127 shots, and 134 hits every 82 games. If Greenway can get a meaningful role, that would make for some pretty good production available late in drafts.

Alright, those are some players I’m looking at that will hopefully be undervalued at multi-cat draft tables in September. Anyone else come to mind?

[Follow the link for more…] (july14)

9. Alex Newhook signed a four-year deal with Montreal a couple of days ago, so the team is committed to making it work. He will have every opportunity to step into the team’s top-6 forward mix and contribute offensively.

There was a good read from Arpon Basu over at the Athletic about why Newhook struggled in Colorado. In short, it was partly because of who he played with – the non-stars on the team – and how they asked them to play – dump-and-chase rather than off the rush. As Basu notes, Newhook is a player with a wealth of speed and playmaking talent. Asking that type of player to dump and chase is a mis-use of his talents. Montreal literally just went through this with Dominique Ducharme when he was still the coach and had Nick Suzuki and Cole Caufield doing the same. Martin St. Louis corrected that very quickly and they became a dynamic offensive duo.

Obviously, this is the hope for Newhook. Not only will he get better line mates – whether with Suzuki or with Kirby Dach – but he’ll get line mates that like to play as he does. That will be reinforced by the coaching staff, too. I am a Habs fan that is still wary of the trade but there is a blueprint for success that Newhook will be able to follow. It’s up to him now. (july13)

10. Leo Carlsson signed his ELC with the Anaheim Ducks, so while it's not confirmed, it sure looks like he'll be in uniform come October. The 2023-24 Ducks should be a lot more fun to watch. Add Carlsson, Olen Zellweger, and any of their other top prospects, and it should make for exciting hockey. (july13)

11. Which players are providing the best and worst value to their teams based on their cap hit?

There are too many players to list, so I’m just going to focus on the top and bottom three players who are not on entry-level contracts from each position. (july12)

Top Three Forwards:

Nathan MacKinnon – $10.1 million surplus on $6.25 million cap hit
Tage Thompson – $9.3 million surplus on $1.4 million
David Pastrnak – $7.3 million surplus on $6.67 million

Bottom Three Forwards:

Jonathan Toews – $7.7 million deficit on $10.5 million
Ryan Johansen – $5.4 million deficit on $8 million
Patrick Kane – $5.3 million deficit on $10.5 million 

12. Top Three Defense:

Brandon Montour – $7.2 million surplus on $3.5 million
Rasmus Dahlin – $5.3 million surplus on $6.0 million
Roman Josi – $5 million surplus on $9.06 million

Bottom Three Defense:

Oliver Ekman-Larsson – $6.45 million deficit on $8.25 million
Marc-Edouard Vlasic – $6.25 million deficit on $7 million
Matt Dumba – $5.1 million deficit on $6 million

13. Top Three Goalies:

Linus Ullmark – $4.6 million surplus on $5 million
Joonas Korpisalo – $3.9 million surplus on $1.3 million
Ilya Samsonov – $3.8 million surplus on $1.8 million

Bottom Three Goalies:

Sergei Bobrovsky – $7.5 million deficit on $10 million
Jacob Markstrom – $5.25 million deficit on $6 million
Jordan Binnington – $5.1 million deficit on $6 million

14. Remaining Key Restricted Free Agents:

Trevor Zegras. I’ve compared Zegras and Terry to Jordan Kyrou and Robert Thomas in St. Louis before. The difference is that both Kyrou and Thomas signed their eight-year $8.25 million AAV deals after their second contracts. Zegras is coming off of his entry-level deal and the Ducks could go a similar route as the Blues did with both he and Terry but they could also bridge Zegras for two or three years at around $5 or 6 million AAV.

Troy Terry. August 2 arbitration hearing scheduled. Terry was a bargain for three years at $1.4 million AAV. I’m not sure the Ducks should give out an eight-year deal but I could certainly see a five-or six-year contract for around $7 million AAV being reasonable. Terry will turn 26 years old by the start of next season.

Vince Dunn. July 24 arbitration. Dunn will turn 27 about a month into next season and has an expired two-year deal with the Kraken at $4 million AAV. In my mind, he had a career year with 14 goals and 50 assists and his level of play was around $7.5 million. If I was the Kraken, I’d offer five or six years at between $6 and 6.5 million AAV. Dunn could gamble on himself and sign a one-year deal to walk himself to unrestricted free agency.

The Kraken has just over $9 million in cap space for 2023-2024 but might want to add a few more pieces to their roster.

[Follow the link for more…] (july12)

15. The anticipated trade of Alex DeBrincat finally materialized as he was sent from Ottawa to Detroit in exchange for a first- and a fourth-round pick, Dominik Kubalik, and prospect defenseman Donovan Sobrango. The Wings turned around to extend DeBrincat for four years with an AAV under $8M. It lines up for DeBrincat to get his big payday down the road.

You can read Ian Gooding’s take on the trade.

This seems like a good deal for the Red Wings. They get the true game-breaking winger they haven’t had since… well it’s been a while. DeBrincat goes to a team where he’s the unquestioned top scoring winger and will get the role/ice time commensurate to that. Seems like a good deal for both team and player. (july11)

16. Though he hasn’t shown high-end offensive skill yet, Noah Cates, who signed a new two-year contract, is showing good work on the defensive side of things, and that’ll please coach John Tortorella. Some healthy Flyers forwards returning might muddle his role but Cates seemed to play his way up the lineup and might just force the coach’s hand. There could be a sneaky 15-goal, 40-point, 100-hit fantasy forward here. (july11)

17. Filip Zadina signed a one-year deal with the San Jose Sharks. I may not be a smart man, but I do think that going to a lottery team to salvage your career is an interesting decision. Best of luck to him. He should get meaningful ice time, at any rate. You can read Dobber’s take on this here. (july11)

18. The Patrice Bergeron and David Krejci decisions are again causing havoc on my Guide analysis. Obviously adding those two players pretty much changes everything. Right now, Zacha is looking very good as a first-line center who recently hit is BT mark (at the midpoint of last year, after which he got 32 points in 40 games).

One thing I discovered (of many) during my analysis – when Krejci was out of the lineup for 12 games, both Pastrnak and Zacha actually produced at a better rate than when he was in the lineup.

Under the lineup as is, AJ Greer plays a bigger role and becomes a decent multi-category option. With the two veterans in the lineup, he gets pushed back by the wayside. (july10)

19. Buffalo signing Erik Johnson is an underrated acquisition. Yes, EJ is a Band-aid Boy and his best days are behind him, but I have production increasing as he pairs with Rasmus Dahlin. This pushes Mattias Samuelsson to his proper side and allows the Sabres to role out three very good defense pairings. It will make the goaltending a little better.

I know everyone loves Devon Levi, and I do too, but he’s going to play most of this year in the AHL. The Sabres have Eric Comrie signed for another year and U-P Luukkonen is also signed. Both of their contracts are low enough to be buried in the minors, but both goalies will play well enough to stick with the Sabres. This allows Levi some time, free from pressure, to dominate the AHL. Because Luukkonen is very injury prone, and Comrie also somewhat injury prone, there is little doubt we will see Levi getting called up a couple of times. There is less pressure to perform when you’re called up in that situation, as opposed to be thrust straight into the role of “the guy”. This will be good for Levi and depending on how he does this year in the AHL and NHL, he should be up with the Sabres in 2024-25. The better of Luukkonen versus Comrie will share the net with Levi at that time. (july10)

20. I like Yegor Sharangovich‘s odds of playing with either Elias Lindholm or Jonathan Huberdeau or both. But I still don’t believe that will push his production to the next level. If Jack Hughes couldn’t get him there, then neither would Huberdeau.

With Darryl Sutter out of the way, I like Jakob Pelletier‘s potential this season. A lot.

As long as Daniel Vladar remains with Calgary, I see an end result where his workload and Dustin Wolf‘s end very similar. But if they can move Vladar before the season begins, then Wolf begins the season as the backup, and gradually seizes the top job by the second half of the season. (july10)

21. I really like how Carolina’s lines fit if they move Martin Necas back to center as opposed to keeping him on the wing. With Andrei Svechnikov back healthy and with Michael Bunting in the fold, there are enough top six wingers. Here is how I have the lines:

Teuvo Teravainen – Sebastian Aho – Seth Jarvis
Bunting – Necas – Svechnikov
Jack Drury – Jesperi Kotkaniemi – Stefan Noesen
Jordan Martinook – Jordan Staal – Jesper Fast

If Rod Brind’Amour feels that Kotkaniemi is ready to be a second-line center (he had a strong second half), then perhaps Necas remains a winger and bumps Teravainen to the third line. Drury is a decent center who can then center Teravainen and Noesen. But those are two likeliest ways that this will go. (july10)

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Have a good week, folks – stay safe!!

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