The Journey: Four Russian Prospects to Stash in Deep Keepers
Ben Gehrels
2023-10-07
Welcome back to The Journey, where we track the development of prospects as they excel in junior, make the NHL, and push towards stardom.
Next week is finally the start of the 2023-24 season! Hopefully all your drafts are complete by now and you're as excited as I am to finally have some new stats and footage to pore over.
While we have been watching preseason action over the past couple weeks in the NHL, many teams in the KHL over in Russia have already played ~14 games of their regular season. While we wait for things to start in earnest on this side of the pond, I thought I would profile four Russian prospects playing prominent roles with their respective KHL teams who are worthy of a stash in deep keeper leagues.
Arseny Gritsyuk (NJD)
The 22-year-old's wrister looks high-end even by NHL standards. His catch-and-release from the left face-off dot on the following play is incredibly smooth and powerful. The goalie is in position, out past the blue paint, and Gritsyuk just blows it by him effortlessly.
This next goal is also from the past week and shows his effectiveness in transition. He outstrips the backchecker, protects the puck with ease, and leaves himself a perfect little pocket of space to shoot from. Again, the goalie doesn't have much of a chance facing a release like that from the face-off circle.
Despite his dangerous tools and impressive KHL production at a young age (68 points in 105 games), my advice on Gritsyuk during Bubble Keeper Week back in July was to drop him due to the fact that he won't be eligible to cross over to North America until 2025-26. A couple years is a hell of a long time in fantasy. That said, if you're able to sit on him in a deep keeper, his trajectory continues to look great and he should hold—and likely increase—his value over the coming years.
Gritsyuk has three goals and an assist in his first eight games this year.
Mikhail Gulyayev (COL)
Say hello to the prospect with the third-highest star probability in the 2023 class—yes, ahead of Adam Fantilli, Leo Carlsson, and Zach Benson! Gulyayev currently sports an 83% likelihood of averaging ~37 points over his NHL career, a rating built on the strength of his impressive D-1 and D0 campaigns in the MHL.
Even more impressive is the fact that he has secured a top-six roster spot right out of the gates in his D+1 with one of the stronger teams in the top Russian league. While playing a somewhat safer game to prove his professional chops, Gulyayev has still managed to secure four points over his first 14 KHL games.
That included his first KHL goal just today.
Despite all this glitter, Gulyayev's value in fantasy seems modest at best for the moment. I recently completed drafts in two 12-team keepers and was able to pluck him off waivers afterwards in both. A familiar refrain of size-related concerns has been going around, which is a lazy reflex on the part of many fantasy managers who make assumptions based on his slighter frame (5-10, 172 lbs).
As noted in his EliteProspects scouting report, his ability to defend flows from his incredible skating ability—EP rated his skating at an impressive 7.5, where 5 is NHL average—which allows him to maintain good gap control, activate his stick, and recover when needed. Just because this 18-year-old doesn't have "NHL size" yet doesn't mean much, especially given that he is still likely at least a couple years away from seeing NHL action.
Gulyayev, taken 31st overall by the Avalanche this past June, could well become the 2023 version of Lane Hutson, a small, dynamic offensive defender who slipped further than he should have in both real and fantasy drafts.
Here he is making an absolutely gorgeous stretch pass in just his seventh KHL game to split the D and set up his teammate for the easy breakaway goal:
A pass like that shows how confident Gulyayev already is, even in one of the top pro leagues in the world, and how well he sees the ice.
Alexander Nikishin (CAR)
If you're worried about investing in 5-10 defenders, put all your chips on the 6-4 Nikishin.
What a beast this guy is. He can seemingly do it all: shoot, hit, pass, defend.
I have managed to snag him in a few leagues and am very excited to watch his continued development over the coming years, as his arrow is headed straight up. He came out of the gates red-hot this year with six points in his first six KHL games, then cooled with two over his following eight.
But unlike many young prospects in the top Russian league, he is seeing a ton of ice time: he has only been below 22 minutes a game once so far over the first 14 games, and that night he was still over 20.
Plus he is averaging 3.2 shots per game, which is a wonderful sign for his future fantasy owners.
A few years from now, a Mikhail Sergachev or Mo Seider-type season could easily be in the cards for the 22-year-old: 40+ points with at least a couple shots, hits, and blocks per game. That would be absolute gold in fantasy. Not bad for a third-round pick from three years ago.
Danila Yurov (MIN)
Somewhat like Gulyayev, only Simon Nemec (83%) had a higher star potential than Yurov (61%) in the entire 2022 draft class—that was ahead of Shane Wright and Logan Cooley. A year later, he has fallen into a tie with Jordan Dumais (CBJ) for eighth (45%) and my sense is that his value is not as high as it should be because poolies don't know how to properly evaluate him.
Yurov has posted huge MHL numbers dating back to his Draft-2 year, when he scored 13 points in 18 games as a 15-year-old. But he then posted only 12 points over his first 80 KHL games. Those totals of course don't tell the whole story, as he has been getting the opposite treatment as Nikishin, averaging around five minutes a night and often playing under one minute per game. Not much you can do to score if you're getting 55 seconds of ice time.
But great news for Yurov owners, that situation has changed in the early going of the 2023-24 season. He is averaging just under 15 minutes a night this year and is not getting sent back and forth between the KHL and MHL. While he doesn't shoot the puck as often as I would like (1.6 shots/game), it is very encouraging to see him playing on Metallurg's top power play.
In this clip, he is #22 in black at the top of the screen. He picks up a secondary assist by beating an opponent to a loose puck in the corner, gaining body position, and sending the puck cleanly out to the blueline—all little details that bode well for his continued professional success.
Here he is in the same game and same spot on the PP picking up another secondary assist.
While we don't see too much flash or individual skill from Yurov in these clips, it is clear that he is playing a much more prominent role this year, which is impressive for a 19-year-old. He looks poised and dangerous on that half wall and should continue to put up points at a decent clip if that deployment persists. If and when that happens, his value will crystalize in a hurry.
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Thanks for reading! Follow me on Twitter @beegare for more prospect content and fantasy hockey analysis.
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