Lightning in a bottle

If you are reading this column, you play fantasy hockey. What you're looking for is that magical hot streak that you can grab on the free agent market. Sure, they're not worth Connor McDavid or Connor Bedard, but maybe a Connor McMichael?  Through mid-to-late February, the Capitals' third-line center had five goals and ten shots in four games, and we all missed it. (He's now up from 1% to 4% owned in Yahoo leagues.) No, it won't last – and it hasn't. No goals, and only five shots in his last four outings. Although McMichael is a talented 23-year-old, he's not ranked among the top 300 in any of my leagues for this season. 

I'd never heard of Bobby McMann before he posted ten points in six Leafs' contests from February 13-22, beginning with a hat trick. His fantasy ownership was also down there at 1%, before shooting up into the middle teens. But you missed that too, right?  His last three games saw zero points, although he's still recorded eleven shots and seven hits as his confidence has improved, as has his ice time.

More recently, you ask?  Morgan Geekie (5% owned) had a hat trick Thursday night, is now centering the Bruins' first power-play unit, and Boston has three games in the next four days. Max Pacioretty has six points in seven games, three on the man advantage, including an assist in the Caps' 5-2 win Friday.  He's up to 14% ownership, having been below ten before this scoring spurt. Both of these are promising "adds," though neither will keep up their current flame.

My point here is that the shooting star happens, not all players are consistent – the tides roll in and out, and the phases of the moon aren't going to help you at all. Plucking the next hot streak off the waiver wire isn't exact science. It could easily be Tyler Motte, Andrew Mangiapane, or Erik Haula. (Mostly chosen at random…)

But I'm going to roster the Flyers' Tyson Foerster ($4200), and the Stars' Logan Stankoven ($3500).  Two rookies, each at 2% Yahoo ownership a week ago – yeah, meaning 98% availability. These two could capture the electricity over a longer time frame. (Ben Franklin reference, especially in Philly?) In just four games coming back from injury, Foerster has notched four goals and five points, averaging just under three SOG per contest. Friday night, despite not landing on the scoresheet, he and Joel Farabee led the Philly forwards for ice time.

Stankoven, patiently waiting his turn in Dallas, has three scores, an assist, and 12 shots in four games. He also leads the AHL in scoring.  As I write this, he's been reassigned back to the Texas Stars, but the big club is better with him than without. The third line of Jamie Benn, Wyatt Johnston, and Stankoven had ten points in those four contests. Johnston didn't make my article until now, being 44% owned, but ten points and 32 shots in his last nine games does raise an eyebrow.

Tonight's matchups:

Prime time

The most broadcast attention, justifiably, will be focused on the New York Rangers at the Toronto Maple Leafs. This is a true measuring-stick match for two Eastern heavyweights. The Rangers cruised to a 10-1-0 record for the month of February, while the Leafs weren't far behind at 9-3-0.  Mitch Marner ($7300) and Auston Matthews ($10,100) each had 20 points through this span. It will be telling to see which netminder is Sheldon Keefe's choice. Ilya Samsonov ($7700) has recorded victories in nine of his past eleven starts, but his February save percentage was only 0.888.  Just-returned Joseph Woll ($7700) showed well Thursday against…. uh, Arizona.  The Coyotes, playing without Clayton Keller and losers of 14 consecutive games before Friday, were not the best measurement. Check in with Dobber's GoaliePost before the puck drops.

By far, the hottest Ranger is Igor Shesterkin ($7700).  February saw the Russian goalkeeper post a 7-0-0 record, with numbers like 1.72 GAA and 0.953 SV%. Prior to that, his season stats were a pedestrian 19-12-1 and 0.899 SV%, both below those of his backup, Jonathan Quick.  Offensively, I'd look to Chris Kreider ($7600), whose netfront presence can get rebound and tip opportunities. Kreider was sixth in goals (seven) and eleventh in shots (46) league-wide for the last month.

Bottom of the pond

Columbus Blue Jackets @ Chicago Blackhawks. Absolutely, here's an opportunity to see Connor Bedard ($6800) shine. The Calder favorite – he actually won this trophy back in June, when the ping-pong balls sent him to an Original Six club – has 40 points in 46 games, and seven in seven since returning from his jaw fracture. Nick Foligno ($4000) also has ten points in eleven contests, and is more affordable in DFS format. Chicago was shut out Thursday, but don't expect a repeat of this. For the Jackets, Zach Werenski ($6600) is also back from injury in 2024, now has 9 points, 40 shots, and 32 blocks in 13 games. Lightning-in-a-bottle candidate Jack Roslovic ($3700) has eight points and 29 shots in eight contests.

Not a fair contest

San Jose Sharks @ Dallas Stars. These are two squads at opposite ends of the Western Conference. The Sharks, with a season-long minus-104 goal differential, are just too easy to pick against.  Kaapo Kahkonen's 14-day stats show a GAA over 5.00. Enter the Dallas vultures… er, Stars. This starts a home-and-home series where the Texas squad certainly expects four points, and individually some padded statistics. I discussed Wyatt Johnston ($4900) above, and he factually did lead his team in shots and scoring since February 1.  Long-time ex-Shark Joe Pavelski ($5300) or first-year Star Matt Duchene ($5100) would be great wagers. Defensively, Miro Heiskanen ($5400) and Thomas Harley ($5000) have similar recent production, so I'd take the lower expense for a DFS lineup. In between pipes, Jake Oettinger ($8500) is the costliest netminder, as he should be. Predict the shutout here! 

Last week

For my last three lineups, the top-ranked wager has let me down.  Auston Matthews, just one assist? Disappointing. But my L.A. Kings trio – Adrian Kempe (inj.), Kevin Fiala, and Drew Doughty – came through large, and my return doubled my bet. Still ahead for the NHL year, even with that preseason Arizona playoff wager now a lost cause. 

My lineup:

Centers – Duchene and Johnston

Wings – Marner, Kreider, Roslovic

D-men – Harley and Mason Lohrei ($3300, four points and eight blocks in five games, in Hampus Lindholm's absence), my cheap-value pick

Goalie – Oettinger

Utility – Foerster

No, I couldn't fit everyone, and mostly feel bad about the Pavelski exclusion. Rooting for ya, Joe.

Good luck to all.