A couple of quick thoughts for the leagues where you get to replace eliminated players. In leagues where you cannot double-up on replacement players, then Edmonton is the last team I would like to select players from, because their scoring is so top-heavy right now that even selecting a few depth players would mean that if they win the cup, those players might get you the same amount of points as a Dallas third-liner.

Aside from that, at this point it should be fully game-theory based on who you are trying to load up on to catch up to the leaders. If they have Dallas and New York, you aren't going to catch them by adding more Dallas and New York players. Ideally you can lean into Edmonton and Florida, but even one team different would do the trick in the right scenario. Things like this also depend on how many teams you are trying to pass, which increase how different from the consensus that you need to be.

My picks for the series are New York in six and Dallas in five, but at this point any of the four teams have a very real shot at winning.

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Rick Roos' article out this morning covers the top free agents this year, and reviews some thoughts on why each could end up being the worst signing of the season. Check out the article, and see if you feel like my salary projections jive with it as well.

Rick is also looking for a couple more mailbag questions, and you know that no one does a deeper dive for your queries than Rick does. Get those offseason conundrums in early before you get stuck at the back of the mailbag line.

To submit a question you can either private message “rizzeedizzee” via the DobberHockey Forums or, instead, send an email to [email protected] with “Roos Mailbag” as the subject line.

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My general take on the Craig Berube move in Toronto is that he isn't going to make the team better in the regular season, and that is when the majority of fantasy leagues take place. Toronto was one of the top offensive teams, but was bottom half on defence. They're not improving their goals-for numbers regardless, but it's even less likely with Berube. The team was in the bottom half for goals against, which should improve, but that will also depend on what roster moves are made in net and on the blueline, which will likely have more impact than the coaching change. All in all, I think I will be shying away from Toronto players next year, as the upside won't be far off from their projected value going into drafts.

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Maxim Tsyplakov was courted by over a dozen teams as a free agent looking to make the jump from the KHL. The winger will be 26 by the time the NHL season starts in the fall, and was signed to a one-year ELC by the Islanders. He will be competing from a roster spot coming off of a 31-goal season in the KHL, a big production jump from his previous years. It does show that he has a decent scoring touch though, and players adjust differently to the North American game. He likely won't be a 30-goal scorer in the NHL, but a 20+ goal season in the Islanders' middle-six is very possible.

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Ryan McDonagh was traded back to the Tampa Bay Lightning along with a 4^th round pick in 2024 yesterday in exchange for 2^nd and 7^th round picks. This doesn't have a huge amount of fantasy value with McDonagh himself just being a 30-point defenceman now, though it does have a trickle-down effect where Nashville's younger defencemen such as Dante Fabbro and Spencer Stastney may have a little more room to grow. It also sounds like it was McDonagh himself that initiated the trade with a request to be moved during his exit meeting.

For the Predators, the cap space is huge, giving them a ton of flexibility to go big-game shopping in the offseason, perhaps for someone like Mitch Marner or Martin Necas. Barry Tortz has stated that he wants the team to bring in high-upside talents, so it's possible that the Predators turn into more of an offensive team in future years than what they have previously. That having been said, using it immediately for a cap dump rather than a big acquisition seems more likely,

The cap space isn't quite as much as it could have been as the Predators do still have more than $6 million next year tied up in the Matt Duchene buyout. Regardless though it provides more flexibility this year, and especially in 2025-2026. Moving out Duchene and Ryan Johansen shows Nashville won't just take anyone in a cap dump, but the cap space is going to get weaponized in one way or another.

Meanwhile, Tampa Bay inches closer to having zero draft picks and just not having to bother paying a scouting department.

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On a somewhat related note:

It sounds like the #Flyers are leaning towards not buying out the final year of Cal Petersen's contract.

— Anthony Di Marco (@ADiMarco25) May 21, 2024

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Over at the World Championships, the games don't have the same high stakes as the NHL playoffs or the Olympics, but they are still entertaining, intense games from which we can try to draw a conclusion or two.

After the round robin, the top three scorers are all from the US, with Matt Boldy and his 14 points in seven games leading the way. He just hit his 200-game breakout threshold at the NHL level, and put up nine points in his last six games of the season (with 41 in his last 39 if you want to stretch it all the way back to mid-season). He's going to take another big jump next year, while finishing just under the 70-point threshold (69 in 75) should hold him down just enough in drafts next year to be great value just outside of the top-50.

The Americans also have a few youngsters vying for ice time, between Gavin Brindley, Will Smith, and Ryan Leonard the future and the present is bright. Smith and Leonard have played five games each, with only one assist from Leonard to show for it. Brindley scored one goal in his four games, though none of the trio is seeing much ice time.

Surprisingly, the top non-American is actually Roman Josi – and that's all skaters, not just defencemen – with 11 points in seven games. His scoring isn't falling off anytime soon.

Sweden's goaltending duo looks fantastic, with Filip Gustavsson and Samuel Ersson putting up video-game numbers: a 1.50 GAA and a .930 save percentage for Gus and a 1.00 GAA with a .925 save percentage. Both are going to be in battles for time next season with Philly and Minnesota each having multiple goaltending options, though both of these two goaltenders are in their mid-20s, with a lot of upside. I expect the will be undervalued in drafts in the fall.

Draft-eligible Konsta Helenius is also a young player to bear watching, but again, just one point for him in limited minutes as well.

One main note from Canada: Connor Bedard is so good. Adding some quality players around him makes him exponentially more dangerous. He could pace for 70+ again next season, or jump into the 90- to 100-point range if at least one top-tier winger is added.

The quarter finals will be played on Thursday.

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See you next Wednesday, and if you want to keep up with it you can find me on Twitter/X here, or BlueSky here if you have any fantasy hockey questions or comments.