Saturday’s Picks/Props: Papi To Bounce Back In Boston

Flip Livingstone

2024-10-26

Buckle up and here we go, my degenerate gambling friends. Welcome back inside the betting lab for the latest iteration of Saturday Picks here at Dobber Hockey. So far, so good, for the most part, with two weeks in the books as a 9-3 overall Saturday record has us feeling ready for a big day. A loaded 14 game NHL betting board awaits us today with no shortage of juicy matchups set to catch some of our hard-earned dollars.

Complete 2023-24 Saturday Record (Daily Record Tracked/Posted @Flips_Picks):

Gold: 1-1
Silver: 2-0
Bronze: 1-1
Side Bets (Located at Bottom of Article): 5-1
2023-24 Combined Saturday Record: 9-3

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Gold Selection
Anaheim Ducks @ New York Rangers – Pick: Rangers -1.5 (-111)

We're keeping things really simple this week with these picks and riding with two teams on the puckline for our Gold and Silver plays, starting with the reigning Presidents' Trophy-winning New York Rangers at home against a Ducks squad that has two of its three wins this season against the lowly San Jose Sharks. We'll get to them in a minute, but the point we're trying to make here is the Ducks are prime for the taking in this spot. First and foremost, aside from a blip on the radar with their loss to the Florida Panthers on Thursday night when Sergei Bobrovsky stood on his head, this Rangers group is looking lethal on the offensive end while racking up the third-most goals in the NHL so far this season with 32 through just seven games.

The other two angles that have us loving the Blueshirts here is Igor Shesterkin has been cooking and New York's domination of the Ducks over their last 10 meetings to the tune of a sparkling 8-1-1 record. As for Shesty, he's looking like a man possessed, out to earn his big pay day while rocking a 4-1-1 record to go along with a 2.16 goals-against average, .926 save percentage, and a shutout. The last meeting at Madison Square Garden between Anaheim and New York resulted in a 5-1 slap around for the Rangers and we expect a somewhat similar result tonight. If anyone is feeling a bit wary of the puckline wager here, copping out for a moneyline bet won't provide much value. So if that's the route taken, slap it into a mega parlay and juice up those odds to make it a bit more worthwhile. All of New York's victories this year have been by two-or-more goals and that continues with another big home W against an Anaheim team whose time is coming, but just isn't here yet.

Silver Selection
San Jose Sharks @ Vegas Golden Knights – Pick: Golden Knights -1.5 (-134)

Much like the breakdown above, this is another excellent spot for a good home team against a lowly opponent poised to get dusted at both ends of the ice with the Knights playing host to the Sharks following their impressive 6-4 come-from-behind win Friday night. Not only has Vegas owned the Sharks since entering the NHL for the 2017-18 campaign, flaunting wins in 17 of the previous 20 meetings, but it’s the convincing fashion in which Vegas has taken those games that has us feeling quite comfortable taking the Knights on the puckline. Five of Vegas' last seven wins against the Sharks have been by two-or-more goals and when their red-hot offense is factored in, this is shaping up to be a very long night for San Jose goaltenders.

The Knights roared back against the Ottawa Senators on Friday while putting a six-piece on the board to take their goal total on the season to a stellar 35 through eight games, second most in the NHL so far. Unless San Jose can find an answer for the scorching-hot top-line trio of Ivan Barbashev, Mark Stone, and Jack Eichel, who have already combined for 38 points, then this one could get out of hand in a hurry. With Adin Hill backstopping the Knights to the win over Ottawa last night it's likely backup and former Maple Leafs netminder Ilya Samsonov in the cage for Vegas against the Sharks, which would usually be cause for concern if not for Sammy being lights out while posting two wins, a 1.95 GAA, and .944 SV% in two starts this year.

The Knights continue to roll offensively and take it to the Sharks early and often for my Silver selection of the week.

Bronze Selection
Auston Matthews Anytime Goal (+100)

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Straight up, Auston Matthews needs to be a lot better. It's not exactly a bold take to say this Maple Leafs team will go only as far as Matthews carries it, but it needs to be said and said often: 34 has to be the best forward on the ice almost every single night if Toronto wants to consider itself a legitimate contender in the loaded Eastern Conference. Papi has looked like a shell of himself over the past two contests, rocking a minus-6 rating while clearly not feeling confident at either end of the rink registering only five shots on net. However, he's one of the best players in the game today and none should beef with the fact that he's clearly the NHL's deadliest shooter when on his game, something we expect him to be going up against the Leafs' bitter Atlantic Division rival Boston Bruins.

Matthews has 12 goals and nine assists in 19 career regular-season games against Boston. With the recent poor performances, we expect a massive bounce-back showing from the game's most lethal goal-scoring forward.

Side Bets
Utah Hockey Club @ L.A. Kings – Pick: Kings ML (-154)
Florida Panthers @ New York Islanders – Pick: Under 6.5 (-164)
Columbus Blue Jackets @ Nashville Predators – Pick: Over 6.5 (-105)

Flip Livingstone is an NHL betting and NHL fantasy writer and daily podcast host with experience at outlets such as theScore NHL, Narcity Media, Postmedia, and Hockey Night in Canada. You can follow him @Flips_Picks.

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UPCOMING GAMES

Oct 26 - 13:10 PHI vs MIN
Oct 26 - 13:10 BUF vs DET
Oct 26 - 16:10 L.A vs UTA
Oct 26 - 19:10 CGY vs WPG
Oct 26 - 19:10 T.B vs WSH
Oct 26 - 19:10 MTL vs STL
Oct 26 - 19:10 NYR vs ANA
Oct 26 - 19:10 BOS vs TOR
Oct 26 - 19:10 NYI vs FLA
Oct 26 - 20:10 NSH vs CBJ
Oct 26 - 20:10 DAL vs CHI
Oct 26 - 22:10 VAN vs PIT
Oct 26 - 22:10 SEA vs CAR
Oct 26 - 22:10 VGK vs S.J

Starting Goalies

Top Skater Views

  Players Team
JACK THOMPSON S.J
MIKAEL GRANLUND S.J
CONNOR MCMICHAEL WSH
PHILIP BROBERG STL
LUKE HUGHES N.J

Top Goalie Profile Views

  Players Team
JUSTUS ANNUNEN COL
JOEL BLOMQVIST PIT
LINUS ULLMARK OTT
KEVIN LANKINEN VAN
ALEX LYON DET

LINE COMBOS

  Frequency WPG Players
27.7 GABRIEL VILARDI MARK SCHEIFELE KYLE CONNOR
22.0 COLE PERFETTI VLADISLAV NAMESTNIKOV NIKOLAJ EHLERS
16.2 NINO NIEDERREITER ADAM LOWRY MASON APPLETON

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