DFS Saturday: Penguins in Prime Position; Seattle on the Road; Vegas’s Hill
Brad Hayward
2024-11-02
Different format this week – I'll see if there's feedback. Again, using DraftKings and only considering those NHL games that start at or after 7:00 Eastern, 4:00 Pacific. You get $50,000 of Monopoly dollars to create a lineup of nine players. Goals, assists, power-play points, shots on goal, and blocked shots are the skater stats.
Goalies
One of the most frustrating parts of playing in fantasy hockey leagues is watching your prized keeper, or early-draft-pick netminder give up six goals while you helplessly watch your week's GK categories slip away. This week Stuart Skinner, Jeremy Swayman, Jake Oettinger, Ilya Samsonov, and both Montréal goalies allowed six scores in a single game, and Connor Hellebuyck five. Had you drafted with a true zero-goalie strategy and rostered Lukas Dostal, Dan Vladar (shutout last night) and Sam Ersson…? Not so bad, right? Elvis Merzlikins had a single goal against in two starts this week, then adds his name to the six-against club against the Jets.
For daily fantasy wagers, maybe the best strategy is to stay with the best chance for a WIN, and let the feathers fly. But if your guy puts up a stinker, no amount of offense is going to make up the points. So tonight Adin Hill ($8200) and Vegas, the team being 7-0-0 at home this season, seems like the safe play. The Sharks have won three in a row, so they're no longer patsies, and Nashville HAS TO break out from their hibernation, right? Maybe the Penguins learned to play defense on Thursday, but they only avoided another loss due to Alex Nedeljkovic's ($8300) heroic saves late in the third period – will he even be in net? Likely starter Joey Daccord ($7500) is an option on the road, as the Kraken see a Senators squad who played the Rangers in New York last night.
Offense
Who'll be the next team to post an eight-spot? Last Saturday the best fantasy play was the Golden Knights (seven goals) handing San Jose their ninth straight loss. But did you roster Pavel Dorofeyev (goal, two assists, nine SOG), who was their fantasy points leader? Or maybe Brett Howden (two goals)? It's not always the stars, but they're the safe play.
Tonight, I'll spend fantasy dollars on Sidney Crosby ($7900), now playing on a line with Evgeni Malkin ($7100) and Rickard Rakell ($4200). Sid has averaged nearly 1.5 points per game against Montreal over his storied career, and he's awakened with five points in Pittsburgh's last two – he's back to that point-per-game standard that he's held for all of his 19-plus seasons. Malkin actually leads the Pens in scoring (14 points) but has come away empty in six of his last seven outings. Rakell has averaged over three SOG over his last ten games, and leads the Pens with six goals.
And then, to balance out Crosby's and Hill's prices (average needs to be $5555), try Colton Sissons ($2700), who's moved up to center between Steven Stamkos ($6200) and Gustav Nyquist ($3500) against Colorado's porous defense. The Avalanche have yielded 4.18 goals per game, and Cale Makar ($8400) is at (-7) plus/minus, despite his 19 points offensively. Many hockey writers dismiss plus-minus as being less important, but Makar's having ten points at even strength means the Avs have surrendered 17 five-on-five scores with Cale on the ice. Yes offense wins Norris trophies, not defense – Makar is the NHL's #1 star for October – and the goaltenders behind him haven't stepped up either.
Starting with these teams, look at Rakell and Nyquist at wings to allow for higher-ceiling outputs from William Nylander ($6700) against the Blues, and Dylan Larkin ($6200), facing the lost-on-Friday Sabres. Nylander leads the Maple Leafs with eight goals and 12 points, and Larkin has potted just five, but also over 3 SOG in his last six games.
Defense
As much as you'd love to roster Makar, Roman Josi ($7800), or Quinn Hughes ($6700), you're on a budget here. Alex Pietrangelo ($5800) has one goal, 11 assists, and consistently puts up blocks as well. Oliver Ekman-Larsson ($4500) has taken over the quarterback role for Toronto's first PP unit, although he's yet to post a PP point. (He's due?) The even-money option would be to start Mo Seider ($5600) and Kris Letang ($4900). Jake Sanderson ($6400), second only to Makar for D-men PP points with seven, would pair with Braden McNabb ($3800) to fit under the "cap."
My lineup
Centers – Crosby and Larkin
Wings – Nylander, Rakell, Nyquist
Defense – Pietrangelo and OEL
Goalie – Hill
Utility skater – Sissons
$300 under cap.
Last week
I subbed in Eric Comrie for Hellebuyck in my lineup, and while the Jets won 5-3, I was five points (one assist) out of the money. Oh well.
Both the USA and Canada see their clocks set back to Standard Time in the wee hours tonight. If you forget, you won't be late – just an extra hour for donuts and coffee. Have a great weekend.