Ramblings: New York’s New Lines; Toronto’s Five-Forward Power Play; Nasty Necas (Nov 4)
Brennan Des
2024-11-04
Battle of New York. Battle of top-tier Russian netminders. Ilya Sorokin didn't come away with the best numbers, but he made a bunch of big saves and fell victim to a bit of bad luck. This was the first time this season – a seven-game span – that he allowed more than three goals.
Igor Shesterkin had a strong showing on Sunday, stopping 35 of the 37 shots directed his way. He's now made 35+ saves in three straight games, which is slightly out of the ordinary. Top contenders like the Rangers usually don't allow a high volume of shots on net, so it's strange to see them surrendering 33.1 per game right now, with only three teams allowing more. I imagine some of this is due to the small sample and we should see the number come down as the season progresses, but still, something to keep an eye on.
Mika Zibanejad had an underwhelming start to the season, with seven points in his first 10 appearances, and just one point in his last four outings. To breathe life back into his game, coach Peter Laviolette positioned Zibanejad between the team's most talented offensive threats – Artemi Panarin and Alexis Lafrenière. Although it's tempting to conclude the move paid dividends based on Zibanejad's three assists on Sunday, a closer look reveals a different story. One assist came on a beautiful short-handed play with Chris Kreider, another came on the power play, and the third – which did come at even-strength with his new linemates – was scored from the defensive end on an empty net. In other words, Mika's points weren't a product of his new linemates. Although the new combinations might continue into next game – to maintain momentum after a win – I imagine we'll see Lafrenière and Panarin reunited with Vincent Trocheck very soon. That line has been good for a while, and I don't think they'll be separated for too long.
Chris Kreider's Cy Young campaign continues as he's now up to seven goals without an assist. He's fallen victim to a bit of bad luck at even-strength, with his team scoring on just 6% of shots while he's on the ice. That number has been above 9% in each of the past six years, which suggests correction is coming as the campaign progresses.
With Mathew Barzal sidelined, Bo Horvat is skating beside Anders Lee and Jean-Gabriel Pageau. Both players seem destined for an uptick in production over the next four-to-six weeks while Barzal is injured. Lee and Pageau went from skating 15 and a half minutes a night before the injury, to 19-20 minutes a night in these past two games without Barzal. Lee has made the most of this extra opportunity, racking up three points over the two games. He's especially valuable in leagues that track shots, quietly averaging four per game.
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Connor Hellebuyck came away with the win, but after a great first five outings, his numbers have been lacklustre over his past four starts. Now, he's a supremely talented goalie on a Jets' team that has won 11 of 12 games, but be cautious over the next couple weeks as his next seven opponents all rank above average in goals per game.
Two points on Sunday gives Nikolaj Ehlers 17 points in 12 games and places him top 10 in league scoring. I was concerned about his ice time early on, because despite his new top-unit power-play role, he was averaging less than 15 minutes a night over his first five games. Fortunately, that's changed lately as he's hit the 17-minute mark in five of his last seven contests.
Kyle Connor extended his season-opening point streak to 12 games with an assist on Sunday. He has 9 goals and 10 assists during this stretch, sitting seventh in league scoring.
Winnipeg is very well represented among the league's top-10 scorers, with Mark Scheifele accompanying Ehlers and Connor in that elite distinction. Josh Morrissey is close behind with 15 points in 12 games – two of which were assists tallied on Sunday. Morrissey has been excellent early on and looks primed to flirt with another point-per game season, as he did in 2022-23. Cale Makar is the only blueliner with more points than Morrissey right now. With all this individual success, it's no surprise that Winnipeg is averaging nearly five goals per game. But beware as their lofty team shooting percentage (15.21%) and power-play success rate (44.1%) will come down to earth as the year goes on.
A concussion spotter pulled Connor from the game in the third period after he took some contact up high, but fortunately it didn't seem to be anything serious.
Brayden Point scored a power-play goal but left the game after playing less than four minutes. His status remains up in the air as I write this, so keep an eye out for updates over the coming days. Anthony Cirelli centred Nikita Kucherov and Brandon Hagel in Point's absence on Sunday. Cirelli already has 12 points in 12 games this season and would be an excellent short-term add if Point ends up missing time. Tampa's next game is Tuesday in St. Louis.
Speaking of Kucherov, a goal and assist on Sunday gives him 20 points in 12 games. Above a hundred-point pace for the seventh-straight season. Ho-hum.
There's been chatter about Hagel's new top power-play role this season being a boon for his fantasy value, but it hasn't really factored into his strong start. 13 of Hagel's 14 points have come at even-strength – including the goal he scored against the Jets on Sunday. This shouldn't come as much of a surprise considering only seven players in the league had more even-strength points than Hagel last year.
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Sunday's Wild-Leafs showdown featured two goaltenders off to solid starts and went exactly how you'd expect. Strong play from Filip Gustavsson and Anthony Stolarz resulted in a 1-1 tie at the end or regulation. Overtime featured a timely burst of speed from Jared Spurgeon, who prevented a budding Max Domi breakaway and created a 2-on-0 the other way, leading to a Matt Boldy winner.
With the victory, Minnesota's record improves to 8-1-2 and the team ranks second overall based on points percentage. They're not getting enough credit for how good they've been early on.
He'll be happy with the result because his team won, but Kirill Kaprizov's insane seven-game multipoint streak finally came to an end on Sunday as the Leafs kept him off the scoresheet.
Desperate times call for desperate measures! Toronto entered Sunday's game with a league-worst 7.9% power-play success rate. That's a shockingly bad number – and out of character for a star-studded team that's boasted a rate of 24% or better in each of the last three years.
They experimented with Oliver Ekman-Larsson on the top unit, and even tried dividing the talent between two groups, but nothing was working, so on Sunday, they turned to the nuclear option. "Defense be damned", said the coaching staff, as they went with a five-forward unit that placed Matthew Knies on the top group with Auston Matthews, Mitch Marner, William Nylander, and John Tavares. The move paid dividends as Toronto scored its first power-play goal in seven games.
Considering how rare it is to run a five-forward PP in today's NHL, combined with the fact that Morgan Rielly has proven himself as a capable power-play quarterback in the recent past, I don't think this new configuration lasts long term. It makes sense to have a defenseman play the point because they have more experience walking the blueline, and can protect against short-handed chances better than almost any forward. More importantly though, Toronto entered Sunday's game with a comically low power-play shooting percentage of 4.92%. With the exact same personnel, that number had been above 15% over the last three years. Even the worst power plays finish a season around 10%. A similar pattern is found when looking at individual shooting percentages, most notably for triggerman Auston Matthews, who has way too good of a shot to be converting on just 6.7% of his power-play attempts. For reference, he boasts a PP shooting percentage of nearly 21% over the past three years. All this is to say, the Leafs have fallen victim to some bad luck that's magnified by a small sample and we should see things turn around as the season progresses.
One tangible change Toronto will want to make is Nylander shooting more. He racked up over a shot per game with the man advantage last year but had just 5 PP shots through 12 games going into Sunday. Some will attribute Toronto's latest PP goal to the new five-forward set up, but I say William Nylander shooting the puck was a bigger factor.
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Sunday's battle of expected-goal goliaths separated pretender from contender as Carolina handed Washington a 4-2 defeat after outshooting the Caps 45-21. Okay, calling Washington a pretender is a bit harsh considering they've had a legitimately strong start to the year and were on the second half of a back-to-back, but it's evident the Hurricanes are in another league.
Carolina was carried by a three-point outing from Martin Necas. The 25-year-old forward is riding an incredible hot streak that includes 15 points in his last six games. This pace obviously won't last all year, but he's seeing a career-high 74% of Carolina's total power-play time and that's already resulted in eight PPPs through 10 appearances. I expect this new role on the man advantage will help him finish with a career-best 80-90 points.
Jesperi Kotkaniemi is up to eight points in 10 games, but considering five of his seven assists are secondary, and he's spent most of the season beside Necas, I sense some coattail riding. I haven't seen enough individual ability from Kotkaniemi to suggest he deserves to hold this favourable spot all year, so he's not someone I'm targeting in fantasy formats.
Dmitry Orlov tallied two goals against his former club, beating Charlie Lindgren high glove on both occasions. Orlov is more of a factor in fantasy leagues this year than he was last year, that's largely thanks to an increase in ice time that's seen him jump from 17:19 per game to 19:43.
If you're looking at shots per game this season, it's tempting to conclude that Sebastian Aho is displaying an increased willingness to shoot as he's up at 3.6 after hovering around 2.9 in recent years. However, that average seems to be boosted by two outliers – a nine-shot outing against the Oilers and seven shots against Washington on Sunday. Volume aside, Aho seems like a decent buy low candidate given his low individual and team shooting percentages.
A player with a more believable increase in shot volume is Andrei Svechnikov, who's posted 4+ shots in seven of 10 appearances thus far. That explains why his shooting percentage isn't out of the ordinary even though Sunday's empty-net goal was his fifth of the season.
39-year-old Alex Ovechkin scored career-goal #860 on Sunday and is now 34 away from tying Gretzky's record. With his vintage power-play one-timer tally, Ovi extends his goal-streak to four games.
Dylan Strome also stayed hot on Sunday. With the secondary assist on Ovi's goal, Strome is up to 17 points through 11 outings, which ties him for 10th in league scoring. Like Ovi, Strome's current production won't last all season, so sell high if you can.
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The biggest story coming out of the Bruins-Kraken clash was Jim Montgomery benching David Pastrnak for the third period, presumably as a result of a careless turnover at the end of the second. Pastrnak has had a slow start to the season by his standards and was already due for some corrections given an unsustainably low team 5on5 shooting percentage, but perhaps this statement from Montgomery motivates Pasta to elevate his play sooner.
A secondary assist for Charlie McAvoy finally breaks a 10-game point drought. Only 5% of the shots Boston has taken with McAvoy on the ice at 5on5 have gone in – which is about half the rate we saw last season. That would suggest he's suffered from some bad luck thus far, with teammates not capitalizing on opportunities as frequently as they normally do. I'm not a big believer in Boston's offense, but the numbers suggest better fortunes are on the horizon.
Jeremy Swayman posted a 23-save shutout over a stumbling Seattle team that's managed one goal in three games since scoring eight against the Habs. Swayman has had a slow start to the season, but that isn't surprising considering he missed training camp due to contract negotiations. He's a talented 'tender and his numbers should improve as the season progresses.
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Pitted against last month's hottest netminder, Arvid Soderblom put on a show and outduelled Lukas Dostal on Sunday. Soderblom stopped 37 of the 39 shots Anaheim threw his was and was four seconds away from it being 38 of 39 before Mason McTavish potted a meaningless power-play goal.
Connor Bedard racked up three assists on Sunday, breaking out of a dry spell that saw him tally just two points in his previous seven appearances.
Speaking of breaking dry spells, Teuvo Teravainen's power-play marker against Anaheim was his first point in seven games. It's amazing how cold he went after starting the year with seven points in his first five outings.
Seth Jones also scored on the power play as Chicago went two for two against the Ducks. Jones is up to five PPPs through 13 games, which is roughly three times the rate he managed last season. He's recorded a point on 71% of power-play goals scored while he's on the ice – up from 38% last year. It's early, but this might suggest that more of Chicago's offense with the man advantage is involving Jones, which could help him flirt with the 50-point mark this year.
With a gritty goal on Sunday, Ryan Donato now has six goals in his last seven games. His strong play has recently earned him a top-line role beside Bedard and Philipp Kurashev at even strength, as well as some top unit power-play time. Donato puts up a decent number of hits and shots, making him a solid add in deeper leagues while this hot streak lasts.
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Leon Draisaitl heard the haters talking about him being a product of Connor McDavid – saying the Oilers were cooked without their captain. He took that doubt and used it to elevate his game, now boasting back-to-back three-point performances since McDavid got injured.
Vasily Podkolzin made a nice play to set up the game's opening goal. He's riding shotgun beside Draisaitl and has points in back-to-back games. Podkolzin saw 16 minutes of action on Sunday, which is the most he's skated this season.
Zach Hyman now has goals in back-to-back games after registering just one point in his first 10 appearances. There was understandably chatter about Hyman being overrated in fantasy formats after last year's 54-goal showing, but he may now be underrated after a ridiculously slow start where he's creating chances without appropriate reward. Perhaps the floodgates will open now that the monkey's off his back.
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Thanks for reading! If you ever have any fantasy hockey questions, follow me on Twitter @BrennanDeSouza and shoot me a message!