DFS Saturday: Leafs Break Slide Against Hot Habs
Andrew Santillo
2025-01-18
Good morning DFS squad! Did anyone out there have Alex Nedeljkovic in their lineup last night? I honestly didn't play yesterday but saw the highlights from the Pens game. If anyone out there wants a chuckle, go back and watch the empty net goal and take a look at Sidney Crosby's face once the puck crosses the blue line. Awesome stuff! For those out there who aren't sure what I'm talking about I'll bring you up to speed – Alex Nedeljkovic got an assist, then an empty netter last night against the Sabres. The Buffalo Bills need to win their playoff game for the sanity of all Sabres fans.
Today we have a loaded slate here which means that there's going to be multiple paths to the cash. For example, the person who won my tournament on Thursday had some Islanders, Dylan Larkin, Shane Doan's kid whose name escapes me right now (editor's note: Josh Doan), with Jakub Dobes in net. That lineup just screams optimizer but that's just my point, on large slates you can have a mixed bag and still do well.
Slate Preview:
Toronto versus Montreal
I watch a lot of Toronto and because I'm encapsulated by all things NHL right now, I usually find myself listening to different hockey shows out of Leafsland. If the show is an hour long, it's 50 minutes on the Leafs and maybe ten on the rest of the league. You guys get my point here. I think I have a pretty good pulse on Toronto. What the club is going through right now is their January slump. It's not a real thing on paper, but in a way for those who follow closely, this seems to happen each season. Even with going 6-4-1 in the last ten games, something is just a touch off here.
Here's what's drawing me to the Leafs tonight, even with all that said. I watched the opening game of this season where Toronto had close to 50 shot attempts (may have been more than that), while Sam Montembeault stood on his head and stopped everything that came his way. The Leafs top line is back to what it was last week and fully correlated with Matthew Knies ($4,300), Mitch Marner ($7,800, please shoot the puck), and Auston Matthews ($9,300). Even if I don't get to Toronto, I will absolutely be watching this game side-by-side with whatever football game is on at that same time. Let's have an A+ spots watching day, all.
For the home Habs, I have some interest in this matchup, particularly a Cole Caufield ($6,300) and Nick Suzuki ($5,300) two-man. Going back to that crazy playoff series in the COVID year, these two teams just always play close, and Montreal just outside looking in gets up for these games. If you want to add Patrik Laine here as well at $5,900, I'm fine with it, but my interest is maybe shifted more to the top line than anywhere else here. I haven't built my lineup just yet and might even go three-max to try and get to some Montreal on the board.
San Jose versus New York Islanders
San Jose is probably not where most people are going on an 11-game DFS slate, but I can say that I have some interest here. The Sharks second line right now is William Eklund ($3,900), Tyler Toffoli ($4,600 and always forget he's on this team), and of course, Macklin Celebrini at $6,700 with the Sharks logo as his player picture on DK. This line is going out at even strength and power play, and it's the power play that's drawing my interest as the Islanders have an historically bad PK so far this season. I get it, it's a risky play on a night where there's plenty of chalk spots, but no risk, no Porsche. I can't say in multi-entry that I would be all-in on San Jose, but if they get into your mix, that's fine. For me, I'm going back and forth in my head right now on what I want to do with them…this may be a game-time decision for yours truly.
Alright. Islanders are at home against the Sharks. Anyone out there remember being a kid and saying this phrase – "Oh, do we have to?" That's what going back to a near last-place Islanders team is like who again, find themselves in a great matchup at home. How is this club not in the running for a Presidents' Trophy? It feels like every night they're in another stellar matchup that they somehow lose 5-3. If I'm going to play this club, which I'm about 50/50 on right now, I'm just power-play stacking them and calling it a lineup. I don't really want to look at shift charts on how they're not using Anthony Duclair today. I just my build to be easy… or lazy. Either one. In all tournaments, lineups, walks of life, yes, the Islanders are in play. I'll see you all out on the battlefield with my Islanders lineup if I get to them.
Don't look now, friends, but home Columbus and home Philadelphia are on this club's schedule next week. I'm going to go with…2-1 loss (OTL) to Columbus and but give me a 4-3 win against Philly where we're all on the wrong Islanders line. Congrats to Jean-Gabriel Pageau next week on his two goals, two assist performance at 0.14% drafted on DK.
Minnesota versus Nashville
We just saw this matchup where the Wild won 5-3. Eyebrow raised; interest piqued. It feels weird to me going to a Wild club with no Kirill Kaprizov, but this is Nashville at the end of the day. Matt Boldy ($6,500) is at a price that I'm fine playing him and adding in Joel Eriksson Ek ($5,400), Marco Rossi ($5,100), and maybe another wing to go with them, is a decent play on a large slate. You avoid all of the very chalk matchups and if Minnesota is going to go into Nashville and win, I'd think that the top six of this Wild club would be in the mix. I wish that this was on home ice, but it is still the Predators after all.
For Nashville, they seem to always carry high roster numbers and I've been off them for a while now. Tonight though, they're going to see a Minnesota club that is missing a good portion of their blueline. With Marc-Andre Fleury in net instead of Filip Gustavsson, going to the Predators may be in play. This is also a Minnesota team that recently has losses of 5-3, 4-1, and 6-1, on their record. Granted, that was all against Edmonton, Vegas, and Colorado, but this Nashville team has some good scoring wingers that I don't mind getting to. You could even two-man Filip Forsberg at $7,500 and Roman Josi at the same price and build around them. I don't even mind just single-entry Josi if you want Nashville exposure on this slate.
Defensemen:
For defensemen, again Josi is a fine play, along with Noah Dobson at $6,200 and Moritz Seider at $6,100. Just below them, I like my guy Jake Walman at $6K to go along with any Sharks build that you make tonight. Tonight, I really don't think you have to spend up much for defensemen if you don't want to as I might be living more in the $4,300 and below range. Jake Middleton at $4,200 is in a good spot, and going even further down, Matt Grzelcyk may play more minutes if Kris Letang is unable to go tonight.
Goalies:
This feels like a make-or-break night for goaltending…here we go. If you're spending up, Igor Shesterkin at $8,100 back at home is fine. Even with a couple goals he maybe should have stopped against Utah the other night, I like him on this slate. Darcy Kuemper at home against Seattle is in an excellent spot at $7,900, and if he starts, he may just be where I end up in single entry. If you want to get spicy, Joel Blomqvist for Pittsburgh against the Capitals is going to see volume and in DFS, volume is king. This may be a night where you have to save some salary to get up to a $7,900-$8,300 goaltender. It's hard to swallow but might be the optimal play for this slate. (Check GoaliePost for the latest starting goalie information.)
Good luck tonight everybody!
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