Welcome back to Puck Picks, my weekly column on NHL betting. Last week in Part 1, I introduced the philosophy behind this space: patience, discipline, and looking for edges rather than forcing action. We also covered bankroll management, how to read lines and implied probabilities, and I shared some of my favorite season-long futures plays.

This week, we're going to build on that foundation. I'll walk through some of my favourite types of NHL bets, explain how I approach parlays (and where they actually make sense), share the areas where I consistently find edges, and of course, add more futures picks to the portfolio.

In-Season Bet Types

Not all bet types are created equal. Sportsbooks are sharpest on moneylines, pucklines, and totals — the high-volume markets where they take the most action. That doesn't mean you can't find value there, but I've had much more success digging into markets that move slowly or don't get as much attention.

Here are the spots I'll be leaning on most this season.

Team Shots on Goal: My bread-and-butter last year. Books tend to key in on player shots but can lag behind on team totals, especially in favorable matchups (weak defensive teams, high shot-volume offenses). We can analyze team Corsi trends For and Against, teams on a back-to-back, and previous matchup history to find edges. This is usually all baked into the Moneyline odds, but not always in the team shot matchup odds.

Goalie Saves: These bets are very similar to team shots, but are usually offered on more sportsbooks. Books adjust saves to team strength in shots against, usually allowing for 3 Goals Against. If you are taking the under on team shots, taking the goalie saves under may be favourable as there is always a possibility of a Really Bad Start (15% of the time), or a goalie getting injured helping you hit the under. If you are more inclined to take the over on a team's shots, I would prefer the team shot bet rather than the opponent's goalie saves over. You can also look for a discrepancy between these two. If New Jersey's team shot line is at 30.5 against San Jose, you'd expect Askarov's save line to be at 27.5. If the save line is at 29.5, you should be taking the team shot over rather than the saves over. This discrepancy also points to potential value on either of the books.

Player Shots Unders vs. Overs: Everyone loves rooting for overs, but the unders often hold more value. Depth players lined at 2.5 shots but skating on the third line, or top players against elite defensive teams, can be great under targets. Examining the past 5-15 games of Corsi For, Fenwick For (unblocked shot tattempts), and Shots For can help us find edges, even for overs. Lineup changes, in particular promotions for depth players to a top line with an elite passer can be a great sign to take an over. Player shot props provide great laddering opportunities if you like the over. If someone has a good matchup and is firing the puck lately, you may want to take their 3+ line, their 4+ line, and their 5+ line.

Points, Goals, and Assists: Player production markets can offer value when usage changes — moving onto a top line or PP1, playing with a hot line mate, or getting extra ice time. Goals are the swingiest of the three, but points and assists can be a steadier way to take advantage of those trends. Examining trends in expected goals can help provide an edge in goal props. Examining microstats like scoring chance assists can help us gain an edge in assist props. These props are props I usually like to include in a same-game parlay, but I will discuss that below.

These are the types of markets I'll highlight most often in Puck Picks. Moneylines, pucklines, and totals will show up too, especially in spots where I see edges (travel, rest, injury mismatches), but props and secondary markets are usually where you'll find the most opportunity.

Parlays and Same-Game Parlays (SGPs)

Sportsbooks love when you play parlays. Why? Because that's where their edge is biggest. It feels exciting to string together five legs, risk $1, and dream about hitting $1,000 — but in reality, books are padding their margins every time you do it, especially in SGPs.

Here's a quick example: say you parlay Martin Necas over 3.5 shots at -110 (implied 52.4%) with Filip Forsberg to record 1+ point at -200 (implied 66.7%). If these events are uncorrelated, the true probability of both hitting is 0.524 × 0.667 = 34.95%. That equates to +186 odds. But sportsbooks almost never give you the fair price. Instead of +186, you'll usually see something like +150 — or even +120. That difference is their profit. That's why books push parlays and Same-Game Parlays so aggressively with "boosts" and flashy promos. They're not giving away free money; they're padding their margins.

Now, I'm not saying never play them. If you enjoy them for entertainment, that's fine — just know the math behind what you're getting into. If you do want to play a parlay, use a calculator (like Action Network's: https://www.actionnetwork.com/betting-calculators/betting-odds-calculator) to check whether the price you're being offered is anywhere close to the true probability. Occasionally you'll find fair pricing across games, and in those rare spots, the added variance can actually be worth it. But blindly chasing long-shot parlays is a bankroll killer.

Although I warned you about parlays and Same-Game Parlays being long-term bankroll killers, there's one exception: when you're betting on highly correlated events. Player point props are the best example. If two players share heavy minutes together at even strength and on the power play, their scoring is naturally linked. If one hits the scoresheet, there's a strong chance the other does too. By parlaying those props, you're leaning into that correlation instead of fighting the odds.

For instance, if Brayden Point picks up a point, there's a good chance Nikita Kucherov was involved. If both are playing on the same line and top PP unit, you can parlay their point props together. The odds drop similarly to a non-SGP parlay, but the correlation makes the reduced price more reasonable.

Now here's the catch: sportsbooks know this too. They'll adjust their Same-Game Parlay payouts downward when events are obviously connected. Even so, I've consistently found NHL spots where the correlation still provides value — if you shop around. One book might offer Kucherov/Point both to score a point at +110, while another lists it at -200. That's a massive swing. Always take the time to compare and grab the best price. This is one of the few areas in hockey betting where the SGP format can tilt in your favor.

Futures Picks

Now let's get into some more futures picks for the 2025-2026 season.

Lane Hutson Under 65.5 Points (-115) – 1.1 units

Hutson is one of the NHL's most hyped sophomores this season, but oddsmakers may be getting carried away with his offensive ceiling, a ceiling he reached last year. While he put up 66 points in his rookie season, there are trends to point to that not occurring again this season. Montreal as a whole got a tad lucky last season, scoring at high SH% rate, while not generating many chances. Looking at Hutson's numbers, his on-ice SH% was a bit inflated at both even strength and the power play, and the team scored more goals for than expected goals for when he was on the ice. This may regress slightly as Montreal returns to earth a bit in the midst of a successful rebuild. There is always a risk of a player not playing 82 games as well. If Hutson misses any time, the under should hit with ease. Even if he plays 82, I think 66 points is hard to come by again.

Patrick Kane 60+ Points (+190) – 0.7 units

Kane has not played more than 73 games in the past three seasons. His aging body makes him a band-aid boy trainee. He did have 59 points last year in just 72 games. He was exceptional last season and his deployment with Alex Debrincat and the top Detroit power play makes this 60+ number achievable. Even if he misses some games, he can hit it. The injury risk is why I am taking the alternative total for better odds, rather than the o/u of 54.5. If Kae has a significant injury, he'll miss both over lines anyways.

Matt Boldy 30+ Goals (+170) – 1 unit; 40+ Goals (+2000) – 0.1 units

Matt Boldy has quietly become one of the best scoring threats in the league. He scored 27 goals last year and 29 the year prior (in just 75 games). Last season he played most of the season without the new highest paid player in the league, Kirill Kaprizov. This pre-season, he looks to be playing a lot of minutes with the superstar. This raises Boldy's ceiling greatly. Last season he only shot a 10% shooting percentage. If he plays all season with Kirill the Thrill and can be a tad more efficient with his shots, he can cruise past 30 goals and possibly reach the 40-goal mark.

Alex Tuch Over 60.5 Points (-110) – 1.6 units

Tuch has established himself as a consistent top-six producer in Buffalo, finishing with 67 points last year and having a 65-point pace the year prior. This has been achievable without great deployment. He has been relied upon usually on a line without Tage Thompson and on the second power play unit rather than the top unit. Training camp suggests that Tuch may finally find a secure role on the top power play unit. This is great news for Tuch owners in fantasy, but even better news for us in the betting markets. His 60.5 line is far too low. If he stays on PP1 all season, he could easily get 70 points. We'll take the over on 60.5 and we can still hit it if he misses a few games.

Nikita Kucherov 120+ Points (+350) – 0.8 units

Kucherov is coming off back-to-back Art Ross Trophys. He had 121 points last season after having a career-high 144-point season the season prior. Books have his main over/under around 113.5, but rather than paying juice on that, the value lies in the alternative totals. He's cleared 120 points the past two seasons, and Tampa Bay's offense still runs entirely through him on the league's most dangerous power play. 120 remains realistic if he plays 78+ games. At +350, this is a bet on Kucherov's elite floor as much as his ceiling — there's just too much value to pass up. I'd also like to point out some honourable mentions of other superstars at this 120+ alternative point total: Nathan Mackinnon (+350) and Connor McDavid (+140).

Now that the season is set to begin, the weekly Puck Picks column will commence next Thursday. Each week, I'll highlight the best Thursday night games to target and break down some of my favorite props. All plays will be tracked here with full transparency so you can follow along with the record throughout the season.

Please gamble responsibly and never wager more than you are willing to lose. DobberHockey does not accept responsibility for any losses incurred.

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