Welcome back to Puck Picks! Each Thursday, I'll be breaking down some of my favorite NHL bets. This Saturday, I'll be filling in for Flip Livingstone's Saturday Picks column. The goal of Puck Picks isn't just to share picks, but to explain the why behind them, helping you recognize similar value spots on your own throughout the season. I'll be tracking every pick transparently in this column, logging units won and lost as the year progresses. I'll also point out trends worth watching, like shot attempt surges, role changes, and evolving power-play usage, so you can anticipate market shifts before they happen. As we are in week 2 of the hockey season – a quick recap from the first two Thursdays:

12-4 for +7.18 units

Average bet ROI: 35% (27.68u returned on 20.5u staked)

We had a killer Week 1, followed by a pretty even Week 2 to bring us down to earth. I have 10 picks for today. Let's get into today's picks!

SGP (1+ point from Tage Thompson and Zach Benson) +200 (0.7u)

SGP (2+ points from Tage Thompson and Zach Benson) +1300 (0.1u)

SGP (Tage Thompson Goal, Benson Assist) +420 (0.2u)

The Sabres' new top line looks dangerous again. Benson has earned his spot into top-line minutes beside Thompson, and the chemistry has been instant. Benson came up with four assists in his first game with the Sabres this season! He is a great playmaker. With Thompson's elite finishing ability, these two are directly correlated. Books haven't fully adjusted Benson's pricing to reflect his role on the top line and PP1, so stacking these correlated outcomes makes sense while the value lasts. We're heavier on the single point outcome, but if they can go off against the Panthers, we'll hit big on the +1300. PSA, please shop around for these odds. Don't go taking Tage and Benson both to get a point at +150, when +200 is sitting around out there!

Total Team Shots: Ottawa/NYI Over 56.5 (-118, 1.5u)

This total is too light for these teams. Both teams have been playing fast, north-south hockey early in the year, with Ottawa pushing pace through their top six and the Islanders generating more volume than expected under Roy. Both the Islanders and the Senators are near the tops of the league in Corsi-for teams per 60. Expect a steady stream of pucks at both ends with closer to 60+ shots.

Kyle Palmieri 2+ shots (-200, 2u)

While we expect a high shooting affair in Ottawa, Palmieri should be able to get this total. He's averaging seven shot attempts per game and 3.75 SOG. He has hit at least two in all four of the Islanders games so far and he'll need some extenuating circumstances to not get at least two. We'll take the steep odds representing a 66.7% chance and put 2 units on it as I have this closer to 80%.

SGP – Jack Roslovic Goal + Leon Draisaitl Assist (+651) – 0.1 units

After finally getting signed, Roslovic moved right into the lineup alongside Draisatl and has great exposure to top offensive situations. In his first game, the Roslovic-Draisaitl-Nugent-Hopkins line was Edmonton's best at even strength and Roslovic fired 4 SOG, with three scoring chances, and two high-danger scoring chances. He has a great shot to score in this situation and if he does, Draisaitl is likely to be involved. This is a correlated longshot. It's a sprinkle for value, not volume.

Minnesota Wild Power Play Goals

Over 0.5 Power Play Goals (+100) – 1.3 units

Over 1.5 Power Play Goals (+550) – 0.1 units

With Kirill Kaprizov healthy and Matt Boldy looking like a true superstar alongside him, this unit has been absolutely killer so far, scoring 10 PPG in just 23 opportunities. Philadelphia doesn't have the worst penalty kill, but they keep taking penalties, averaging 3.75 power-play opportunities against so far this season. If Minnesota can get four opportunities tonight, they should capitalize. +100 is far too good to pass up on for the Wild's killer power play to keep succeeding. We'll take a bit of upside for them to get 2 PPGs at +550 while the odds are great.

Matias Maccelli Under 1.5 Shots (-115) – 2.5 units

This has been my favorite prop of the season so far. So much so that I was extremely disappointed to see it not offered in the Maple Leafs' last game on any book. Well, it's back today! Maccelli is an excellent playmaker — but that's exactly the point. He's a pass-first winger who is in a puck possession system. He has no SOG in four of five games so far hitting 2 SOG in the one game against Detroit. He does have two shot attempts in each of the past three games, but even if this continues, it is unlikely he'll hit the net on all shot attempts. Until the books adjust, this line is mispriced. It's not sexy, but this is the kind of volume-based edge that wins long-term.

Winnipeg Jets Team Shots Under 28.5 (-115) – 1.7 units

The Jets are often priced like a high-volume team, but they play a slower, controlled style and rely heavily on efficiency. Winnipeg has yet to surpass 27 shots on goal in a game, while consistently getting outshot by their opponents. Facing a team that limits shot attempts, this total is too high. A disciplined, structured game keeps their shot count modest.

Michael Bunting – Under 1.5 Shots (-115, 1.3u)

We're going right back to Bunting. Prior to last game, Bunting had no shots on goal in the past three games. He had one shot on two attempts last game. Again, his game revolves around net-front positioning rather than shot generation, and relies heavily on his teammates to generate chances. The books adjusted this line slightly from the +115 we took advantage of on Thursday, but it's still worth taking at -115.

Macklin Celebrini & Jeff Skinner SGP

Celebrini & Skinner 1+ Point Each (+240) – 0.6 units

Celebrini & Skinner 2+ Points Each (+1800) – 0.1 units

Celebrini has had a slow start to this NHL season, but looks great and is still generating tons of chances. Skinner joined him at even strength and on the top power play last game and they both had two points. It looks like they have some good chemistry and the books are slow to adjust the odds for this correlation. If Celebrini succeeds, Skinner will be along for the ride.

No Power Play Point Parlay

No PPP – Marco Rossi, Gabriel Landeskog, Shea Theodore (-182) – 2 units

This is one of my favorite early-season plays. All four players are on secondary power play units with minimal usage — typically 25–35 seconds per opportunity. Books are STILL pricing them too aggressively as if they're PP1 guys. It is still possible PP2 scores, but it is unlikely. We are getting fair parlay odds here, according to Action Networks betting calculator, so it is worth parlaying a bunch of highly likely events together.

Final Thoughts

I want to let you know that variance makes betting on the NHL have big swings. Some days we'll get super lucky (like in Week 1 when we were 7-0), and some days will be dreadful. On average, expect a successful gambler to return around 5% ROI per bet. Tempering expectations will keep you from chasing big losses. As always, I'll be updating results every Thursday for full transparency. Please gamble responsibly and never wager more than you're willing to lose.

Follow me on X (@fantasycheddar) for more daily betting picks and fantasy hockey analysis throughout the season.

Ryan Brudner

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