Welcome back to Puck Picks! Each Thursday, I'll be breaking down some of my favorite NHL bets. The goal of Puck Picks isn't just to share picks, but to explain the why behind them, helping you recognize similar value spots on your own throughout the season. I'll be tracking every pick transparently in this column, logging units won and lost as the year progresses. I'll also point out trends worth watching, like shot attempt surges, role changes, and evolving power play usage, so you can anticipate market shifts before they happen. We are in week 3 of the hockey season. Last Saturday, we filled in with an extra Puck Picks, so we have three Puck Picks articles in our season recap:

17-9 for +9.36 units

Average bet ROI: 27% (44.06u returned on 34.7u staked)

We are rolling along this NHL season so far with a 27% average bet return on investment. Let's see if we can keep the momentum with tonight’s picks:

Sam Rinzel 2+ shots (+105, 1u)

Rinzel's been quietly emerging as a volume play from the blue line. He's hit this total in 4 of 7 games so far, but what really stands out is the recent trend — over his past three games, he's averaging just over five shot attempts per game while playing heavy minutes on the top pair and the first power play. That's elite usage for a young defenseman still priced like a depth piece.

Tampa Bay hasn't been suppressing shots this year, allowing an average of 31 shots against per game, and their penalty kill has struggled to clear traffic from the slot. Tampa also allows more shots from Defenseman compared to other teams, ranking 3rd last in that regard. At plus money, this is a great buy spot for a player seeing top-unit minutes and strong recent volume. I have this line closer to -150.

Trevor Zegras u1.5 shots (+102, 1.2u)

Same-Game-Parlay (SGP) of Zegras u1.5 shots and Owen Tippett 3+ shots (+219, .5u)

Zegras just hasn't been generating volume this season. He's gone under 1.5 shots in 4 of 6 games, with only one shot on goal in his past three games. Zegras continues to defer as a distributor on the rush rather than shooting himself and his second-unit power play role doesn't help. At plus money, this is simply a value fade on a player whose usage and mindset don't match the line.

Additionally, pairing him with Tippett's over shots is a nice correlated same-game look where both sides make sense individually, but gain value together as they are correlated. Zegras' lack of shot volume pairs well with Tippett's aggressive shooting profile — they have played on the same line together, and Tippett is taking pretty much every shot. If Zegras decides to shoot, Tippett will likely shoot less, but if Tippett keeps shooting, it is likely at the expense of Zegras shots. Tippett is averaging seven shot attempts and 4 SOG per game with decent TOI with power-play minutes.

San Jose Sharks team shots o25.5 (-115, 1.2u)

This number is simply too low for a team that's quietly trending up in shot generation. The Sharks generated fewer than 24 shots in each of their first four games, but then put up 31 against the Penguins and 36 against the Islanders.

They're facing a team that allows plenty of zone time and doesn't block a ton of shots, so even modest offensive pressure should push this total over. San Jose might not be winning games, but they're getting pucks on net.

Jeff Skinner 2+ shots (-180, 2u)

On the same note of San Jose, Skinner has been a big contributor to San Jose's shots on goal. He has hit 2+ shots in each of his first six games with the team with a whopping 6 in his last game. His ice time is increasing alongside his shot rates. Even if we miss the San Jose team shot total, Skinner is much more likely to hit. We like the 2-unit play with steeper odds (suggesting a 65% chance of occurring), but only because we have this event occurring at closer to -300 (a 75% chance). I wouldn't be surprised to see his odds climb up to this number and his shot line over/under switch to 2.5 soon.

SGP – Dylan Larkin and Lucas Raymond 1+ point each (+110, 1.4u)

Detroit's first line has been on fire to start the season, even playing with rookie Emmitt Finnie. This is a play where if you like either Larkin or Raymond to get a point, you may as well parlay them together as their point props are highly correlated with them playing on the same even strength line and top power play unit together. Sometimes the same-game-parlays give you terrible odds because they account for this correlation, but Larkin and Raymond are still valuable here. Only 1 of Raymond's six points have come without Larkin involved so far, that is too good of a correlation to pass up this SGP opportunity.

Seattle Kraken/Winnipeg Jets under 55.5 total combined team shots (-125, 1.3u)

Both of these clubs play controlled, possession-heavy styles that naturally suppress total shot volume. The Jets are methodical in transition and rely on quality over quantity, while the Kraken generate plenty of zone time without necessarily funneling pucks to the net.

We could isolate Winnipeg's team under 28.5 but given they're at home against a low-volume opponent, there's a real chance they edge slightly past that number. If that happens, it likely comes at the expense of Seattle's shot totals, keeping the combined total under the mark anyway.

Bottom line: Two teams that prefer patience over chaos, facing off in a pace-controlled matchup. This is a solid spot to back the under on total shots rather than picking a side.

SGP of Ilya Mikheyev Goal / Frank Nazar Assist (+1150, .1u)

SGP of Mikheyev Goal / Teuvo Teravainen Assist (+1300, .1u)

Alright, here's a fun one. It is unlikely to happen, but my expected probability of this is much better than the implied probability of the sportsbooks' lines. Ilya Mikheyev has been thriving lately with expanded minutes on the Blackhawks' second line alongside Frank Nazar and Teuvo Teravainen. He's getting consistent opportunities, posting solid expected goal (xG) and shot-on-goal rates.

His goal prop at +550 already offers value on its own, but by stacking it with an assist from either Nazar or Teravainen, we capture the strong correlation that comes with even-strength linemates. If Mikheyev finds the back of the net, odds are high that one of these playmakers had a hand in setting it up.

These are small-unit, high-upside sprinkles, but the logic is sound — we're pairing real offensive chemistry with undervalued odds while taking advantage of how slowly books adjust to emerging line trends.

Final Thoughts

We're starting to get enough of a sample size now to see which early trends are real and which are noise. This is the point in the season where books are still catching up to new roles, evolving team identities, and player usage changes, making it slightly harder to find value. The big-name players are usually where the value is lost as the season goes on, and that's why you'll see guys like Jeff Skinner, Sam Rinzel, and lots of team shots in here. Don't just chase last game's box score; look for sustainable indicators like consistent shot attempt volume, time on ice trends, and power-play deployment. As always, stay disciplined with unit sizing, trust your process, and enjoy the ride. Let's keep the momentum rolling into another profitable week.  As always, I'll be updating results every Thursday for full transparency. Please gamble responsibly and never wager more than you're willing to lose.

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