Welcome back to Puck Picks! Each Thursday, I'll be breaking down some of my favorite NHL bets. The goal of Puck Picks isn't just to share picks, but to explain the why behind them, helping you recognize similar value spots on your own throughout the season. I'll be tracking every pick transparently in this column, logging units won and lost as the year progresses. I'll also point out trends worth watching, like shot attempt surges, role changes, and evolving power play usage, so you can anticipate market shifts before they happen. As we are one month into the season, I have some sufficient data that may be of interest. In this article and a few to follow, I'll highlight some specific bet types and how I have fared in each category so far this season. I'll also share my thoughts on if I think that some of these trends will change or continue. Before that, let’s recap how we're doing on Puck Picks this season after going 5-3 for +1.4 units last week:

23-18 for +4.0 units

Average bet ROI: 7.2% (59.7u returned on 55.7u staked)

Let's look at different betting categories and see how I'm doing. I'll be using data from all of my bets this season (over 1000), not just the bets in Puck Picks.

Positive vs Negative Odds

Let's start with one of the simpler splits. Bets with +100 Odds or greater, implying a less than 50% chance of occurring, vs bets with minus odds (like -150) implying a greater than 50% chance of occurring. I have returned a total of 8.7 units of profit on negative odds for a 2.1% average bet return. Positive odds have been better so far returning 19.5 units for a 6.3% average bet return. Although I am finding success at the implied "favourites", the underdogs, or long-shots, are yielding a better return. I'll win fewer total bets of these, but I am having a larger edge here. An example of this is jumping on bottom-six players' point props who may find themselves elevated to the top line. Emil Heineman's +145 point prop was an example this past week when he was skating on the top line with Mathew Barzal and Bo Horvat and having some power play time. Another example is the same-game parlay (SGP) point combinations that aren't fully juiced yet. For example, Macklin Celebrini and Will Smith's point SGP was +135 last night (and their 2+ each prop was +725!), where Clayton Keller and Nick Schmaltz' point combo was juiced to -120. I'll also note that a lot of the heavily favoured over props, like Tim Stutzle to get a point at -200, or Zach Werenski to get 3+ shots at -180 are usually properly priced and it is harder to get an edge on these superstars, unless there are recent trends the books aren't accounting for.

I'll dive into another category of bets next week. Now let's get into tonight's Puck Picks!

SGP 1+ point from Cole Caufield/Nick Suzuki (-115, 1.1u), Caufield Goal/Suzuki Assist (+220, .3u)

Speaking of point combo SGPs, of Nick Suzuki's 19 points, Cole Caufield has gotten a point on 12 of them. They've both picked up at least a point in 9 of their 13 games played. These players are some of the most highly correlated in the NHL when it comes to getting points together. We are taking advantage of the odds at -115 tonight, when they are usually -150 or worse. New Jersey is being priced as a defensive juggernaut, but they rank middle of the pack in Goals Against and expected Goals Against in their last 10 games. Suzuki and Caufield should continue to produce together. Caufield's goal paired with Suzuki's assist prop is also valuable here. Caufield has 10 goals on the season and Suzuki has assisted on seven of them. In each of the six games that Caufield has scored at least 1 goal, Suzuki has actually picked up an assist in all six of them! We're also sprinkling in 0.05 units on Suzuki to get 3+ points and an assist with Caufield to pick up 2+ points at +918.

Boston Bruins under 26.5 team shots (1.4u, -115)

Looking at the past 10 games played, Ottawa ranks 4th in even strength Corsi Against (Shot Attempts Against) per 60 and Shots Against per 60. Conversely, Boston is in the bottom 10 in Corsi For and Shots for, while being 6th last in shots for over their last 5 games. Boston being at home should cause some caution, as home teams generally experience a 5-10% boost in Shot rates, goal rates, and win rates. Although this season Boston is scoring more at home, they are not showing an increase in shot attempts. On the other side, Ottawa is actually giving up less shot attempts and shots when away this season compared to being home. Even if Boston can outshoot Ottawa tonight, it should be a very low volume affair.

As an aside, I want to quickly touch on Team Shots and Goalie Save props. They are essentially the same thing. In a goalie's save props, you're mainly looking at the opposing team's shots. As a general rule of thumb, expect three goals against. So, a goalie's save prop should be three less than the team's shot prop. If it is more or less than that, you may be able to take advantage of the discrepancy, depending which side you like. If it is a difference of 3, I generally like taking the goalie's under rather than the team shot under because it adds some possible events to your side winning – a goalie having a Really Bad Start (around 15% of the time) and a goalie getting injured. Even if the goalie plays lights out, your thesis is on the opposing team's shots being low. So, If Linus Ullmark's save prop is at 23.5 and -115 or better, I'd prefer to take that. If it's at 22.5, take the team shot under at 26.5.

Sean Walker 2+ shots (-215, 2.2u)

Some people may not agree with this bet due to the high odds at -215, but the odds don't matter to me as much as how different I see the odds to be. -215 implies a 68.3% chance of occurring. This is right in line with the number of games he has hit this line in (8 of 12 – 67% of the time), but Walker's role on the Hurricanes has changed of late, getting more offensive zone draws, more ice time, and the most important point, the QB role on the top power play unit. He is averaging 5.8 shot attempts in the past 5 games, getting 2 on goal in each one. On top of this, Minnesota ranks 5th last in shots against over the past 10 games. Carolina's team total is at 31.5 shots. Walker should get at least two of them.

If you're still reading, I've almost surpassed 1200 words, so I will add a few more picks with no deep dive.

Trevor Zegras 2+ shots (-180, 1.8u), 3+ shots (+172, .2u), 4+ shots (+425, .2u)

Robert Thomas Assist (-108, 1.1u), 2+ points (+260, .3u), 3+ points (+950, .1u)

Andrei Kuzmenko 2+ shots (+135, 1u), Kuzmenko Goal/Danault Assist (+1300, .05)

No PPP Parlay – Marco Rossi, Andrei Kuzmenko, Thomas Harley (-182, 2u)

2+ Shots Parlay – Seth Jarvis, Viktor Arvidsson, Cutter Gauthier, Jason Robertson (+105, 1.2u)

Next week, I'll examine my returns in other categories of bets alongside my picks. See you next week. Good luck if you're tailing! As always, results will be updated in next Thursday's column for full transparency. Please gamble responsibly and never wager more than you're willing to lose.

Follow me on X (@fantasycheddar) for more daily betting picks and fantasy hockey analysis throughout the season.

Ryan Brudner

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