Welcome back to Puck Picks! Each Thursday, I break down some of my favorite NHL bets, explain the reasoning behind them, and track performance transparently. The goal isn't just to share picks, but to help you recognize why certain spots have value so you can identify them throughout the season. I'll be tracking every pick transparently in this column, logging units won and lost as the year progresses.

With that said, last week was a good one, where we went 6-3 returning 4.74 units. The Edmonton power play stack crushed it for us. Joseph Woll's injury was unfortunate as he was on track for hitting his saves line, but it's a good lesson if you haven't thought about a player getting injured mid-game. Injuries are always baked into the odds from the sportsbooks perspective, and need to be accounted for in our models. Overall, that brings the season record to 45–36 for +5.24 units. Now let’s dive into tonight’s Puck Picks. Let’s have a night!

Edmonton Top Unit PPP Stack… again – 1.4 units

Connor McDavid (+130, 0.4u)/ Leon Draisaitl (+130, 0.3u)/ Ryan Nugent-Hopkins (+210, 0.3u)/ Evan Bouchard (+190, 0.2u) / Zach Hyman (+330, 0.1u)

We're going right back to the well after last week's success. Edmonton once again returns home, where they draw 3.2 power plays per game, compared to just 2.0 on the road. Their power play has been scorching—1.4 PPG per game over their last five with a 47% conversion rate in that stretch. Detroit's penalty kill isn't the pushover Seattle was last week, but it's still league-average and ill-equipped to handle Edmonton's momentum and concentrated deployment.

With PP2 receiving virtually no ice time, the top-unit stack remains the highest-EV angle compared to EDM's team PPG prop of -135. Edmonton also has real potential to score two PPGs here, which could cash four or even all five of these props. As with last week, I'm adding a 0.2u bet on Connor McDavid 2+ PPP at +650—he's the main driver of the play on this power play with the highest IPP (82%) and if they score two, he is likely involved in both.

BUF 1+ PPG (–105, 1.4u)

Continuing on the PP trend, Vancouver continues to struggle on the penalty kill, allowing the most power-play goals per game in the NHL this season. Buffalo's power play, meanwhile, is quietly heating up—ranking 6th in PPG per game over the past month.

While the top unit has looked sharp, Buffalo is still giving too much time to PP2 for me to justify a full top-unit player stack like Edmonton's. Instead, I'm taking the team angle and targeting certain players like Josh Doan and Josh Norris on their point props.

Team Shot Over Parlay (+273, 3u)

I am combining the following two team shot plays into a parlay, but the reasoning is being limited on how much I can bet on single plays on this sportsbook. They allow me to get more units down in parlays. I also really like the value of both these plays. Combining them might increase variance and risk of losing in a given night but can increase the rewards greatly. I would still suggest taking these as singles, unless you are fine with the increased risk, as I may be writing next week explaining how just one of these hit and singles are the way if you're limiting your plays to a few per day.

Ottawa Over 29.5 Team Shots (–115)

Columbus is allowing 30.74 shots against per game, the third-worst mark in the league. Even in games where they outshoot opponents, they still end up in track meets where both sides break the 30-shot barrier. Ottawa didn't start the year firing, but they've been surging recently, ranking 6th in Shots For per 60 at even strength over their last five games and 4th in Corsi%. They're dictating play, controlling possession, and generating high-volume shot attempts. Columbus is also one of the rare teams performing worse at home this season in terms of suppressing shots. Ottawa is rolling right now and should be able to push past 30 shots.

Anaheim / NY Islanders Total Team Shots Over 59.5 (–106)

Anaheim continues to be involved in wide-open games, and the shot totals reflect it. Their last two outings tell the story: 53 shots on goal against Chicago, followed by 47 allowed against Pittsburgh. Whether they're attacking or defending, chances pile up quickly. The Islanders bolster this angle as well, giving up the most shots against per 60 over the past five games while being significantly stronger offensively at home.

The total shots over has hit in 11 of Anaheim's last 15 games, and this matchup sets up for another up-tempo environment. If Anaheim doesn't drive the volume, the Islanders almost certainly will. This should be one of the more entertaining, chance-heavy games of the night.

Team Shot Under Parlay (+226, 2u)

I'm also building a team shot under parlay for tonight's slate. As always, I recommend playing these individually if you prefer lower variance, but the combined parlay offers strong value given how both teams profile offensively right now. These aren't "lucky unders"—the underlying numbers firmly support both sides staying below their listed totals. I'm also releasing this before Goalie lines drop, but I'm expecting both Goalie's save lines to be 4 or 5 points under the team shot lines, pointing to the team shot prop being valuable.

San Jose Under 27.5 Team Shots (–125)

San Jose remains dead last in the NHL in shots per game, and nothing about their offensive environment suggests improvement. They've cleared 27.5 shots just once on the road all season, and that number came in a rare outlier performance. The Sharks generate very few sustained offensive-zone sequences, and the lack of play-driving talent shows up in every metric—from shot attempts to controlled entries to expected goals.

Toronto does tend to allow shots in certain matchups, but they play much more structured, low-event hockey at home compared to on the road. Their defensive scheme under Berube suppresses rush chances effectively in their own building, forcing opponents to dump pucks in and settle for low-danger attempts that are easily blocked. For a Sharks roster that struggles to create clean looks, 27.5 is simply too high.

Dallas Under 27.5 Team Shots (–124)

Dallas has been excellent offensively this year—but that excellence comes from efficiency, not volume. The Stars rank 7th-fewest in the league in shots for per game, buoyed instead by an elite 13.33% shooting percentage, the best in the NHL. They don't need a lot of shots to score, and that's reflected in their totals staying low despite their goal output.

They've actually been worse at generating shots on the road, and this matchup doesn't help. In their most recent meeting with Minnesota, Dallas was outshot 41–25, even in a comfortable 5–2 win. Dallas can absolutely put goals on the board—but getting to 28 shots is a very different ask. Given the matchup and their season-long playstyle, this under remains a strong value spot.

Nikolaj Ehlers 3+ Shots (+136, 1u)

Ehlers may technically skate on the second line, but this isn't a traditional "second" unit. Alongside Logan Stankoven and Jackson Blake, Ehlers is part of a trio that has been driving play at an elite level, posting a team-best 66.5% CF% at even strength. With the Sebastian Aho – Seth Jarvis – Andrei Svechnikov line likely seeing the toughest Washington matchups, Ehlers' line should have more freedom to generate offense.

He's also seeing PP2 usage, but Rod Brind'Amour has been generous with second-unit minutes whenever PP1 fails to convert in the opening sequence. Washington is generally strong defensively, but their structure tends to funnel attempts from the outside—allowing more shots to wingers than centers or defensemen. Ehlers is averaging 7 shot attempts and over 4 shots on goal across his last three games. With his current volume and this matchup context, he has a clear path to three tonight.

Sidney Crosby Under 2.5 Shots (–137, 1.4u)

Crosby remains one of the league's smartest offensive players, but he's never been a pure volume shooter. He consistently waits for premium chances or looks to set up teammates in high-danger areas. That was on full display last game: the Penguins fired 47 shots against Anaheim, yet Crosby finished with zero shots and zero attempts. Skating with Tommy Novak and Bryan Rust, Crosby has been distributing more—Novak scored last game and Rust generated strong xG totals. Montreal also suppresses shot volume effectively, allowing just 26.5 shots against per game this season. Combined with Crosby's playstyle and recent trends, this is a strong spot for the under.

Luke Hughes 2+ Shots (–168, 2u)

Hughes has been in full green-light mode, hitting this prop in six straight games while averaging 7.5 shot attempts per game over that stretch. His confidence and involvement in the Devils' transition game continue to grow, and so does his willingness to fire from the point and the rush.

Tampa Bay's defensive profile also leans in his favor—they allow more shots to defensemen than forwards, and Hughes already recorded 2 SOG on 6 attempts in both prior meetings with the Lightning this season. His role has only expanded since then. Given the volume and matchup, this number feels short. 2+ should be closer to –190, making this a strong value play.

Colorado 30+ Team Shots (+120, 1.5u) & 35+ Team Shots (+430, 0.3u)

Colorado continues to be a shot-generation machine. They rank 1st in the NHL in shots on goal per game this season and have widened that gap even further over their past five games, where they've consistently overwhelmed opponents with volume. The Avs have hit 30+ shots in 11 of their last 15 games, and an even more impressive 9 of their last 10 at home. Their ceiling has also been strong—they've cleared 35 shots in 8 of their past 15, making both lines attractive at their prices.

Florida is a strong defensive team, but their shot-suppression splits are heavily skewed by venue. At home, they keep opponents quiet, but on the road they allow roughly five more shots per game. That difference is enough to give Colorado a meaningful edge, especially with how dominant their top six and defense have been in driving play. Getting plus money on 30+ shots is excellent value, and with the way Colorado has been pushing the pace lately, the 35+ at +430 is worth a smaller sprinkle.

No PPP Parlay – Oliver Ekman-Larsson, Brandon Hagel, Victor Olofsson (−213, 3u)

We're going right back to the well with another No Power Play Point parlay, which has been one of the most dependable angles this season. All three players here are being priced as if they have meaningful PP roles—but the usage tells a very different story.

Oliver Ekman-Larsson continues to be treated by sportsbooks like he's locked into Toronto's top power-play unit. In reality, Morgan Rielly was taking those PP1 reps in their most recent practice, and OEL has seen his PP role gradually fade. His value on this parlay hinges on outdated perception rather than actual deployment.

Brandon Hagel remains on PP2, and that looks unlikely to change anytime soon. Tampa keeps giving Oliver Bjorkstrand the heavier PP usage, while Hagel shoulders significant minutes at even strength and on the penalty kill. His all-situations workload actually works against him, as Tampa prioritizes more specialized players on the man advantage.

Victor Olofsson is an auto-include in the No PPP parlay at current pricing. Even with the occasional rotation, he is still fourth in line for PP1 minutes behind Gabriel Landeskog, Brock Nelson, and Valeri Nichushkin. He simply doesn't have a reliable path to meaningful power-play time, even if Colorado were to pull their goalie with a 6-man unit.

Given all three players' actual deployment—not their name-recognition or past roles—this parlay remains significantly mispriced. It's a strong play at −213.

Good luck if you're tailing! As always, results will be updated in next Thursday's column for full transparency. Please gamble responsibly and never wager more than you're willing to lose.

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