Welcome back to Puck Picks! Each Thursday, I break down some of my favorite NHL bets, explain the reasoning behind them, and track performance transparently. The goal of this column isn't just to share picks, but to help you recognize why certain spots have value so you can identify them throughout the season. I'll be tracking every pick transparently in this column, logging units won and lost as the year progresses.

In the last article, we went 3-4, for a net of +1.53 units. We got snake bitten by a Mason Marchment injury and it seems like Mikey Eyssimont reserves his 1 shot on goal games strictly for when I bring him up in these Puck Picks articles. Overall, that brings the season record to 75–62 for +20.04 units. The average bet return is  7.8%. Let's see if we can keep up the winning tonight! Let's dive into the picks:

Jackson Blake 2+ shots (-167, 1.5u) and 3+ shots (+185, 0.3u)

Rod Brind'Amour is no stranger to spreading out even-strength ice time in Carolina, and the Hurricanes' top nine has been getting fairly even deployment lately. The second line of Logan Stankoven, Taylor Hall, and Jackson Blake has been consistently dominating its competition in Corsi For percentage at even strength, with Blake emerging as the primary trigger man. He's averaging 3.25 shots on goal and five shot attempts per game over his last four contests, clearing the 2+ line in all four and the 3+ line in two of them. As an added bonus, Blake averages roughly 0.33 more shots on goal per game at home compared to when he plays on the road.

Alexander Nikishin 1+ point (+145, .8u) and Power Play Point (+425, 0.1u)

With Shayne Gostisbehere out tonight, Alexander Nikishin, a DobberProspects favourite (https://dobberprospects.com/player/alexander-nikishin/), appears to be the next man up to quarterback Carolina's top power-play unit, where he already scored a goal in the previous game. While the power-play point prop is appealing, Nikishin also received a large share of offensive zone starts last game, leaving the heavier defensive deployment to Jalen Chatfield and Jacob Slavin. He seems to have stepped directly into Gostisbehere's offensive role, which means an even-strength point is also very much in play if the power play doesn't convert.

Cutter Gauthier 4+ shots (-133, 1.5u)

Ladder: 5+ (+165, 0.5u) | 6+ (+330, 0.2u) | 8+ (+1050, 0.05u)

Gauthier's shot props are always enticing because he leads the league in shot attempts (Corsi For) per 60 minutes. He has been firing the puck relentlessly lately, averaging over eight shot attempts per game across his last six contests. During that stretch he cleared four shots in five games, reached five shots in four of them, and surpassed six shots twice, including a nine-shot performance. Tonight, he faces Toronto, a team that has allowed the most shots against in the league this season. Given the matchup and his recent volume, this is a strong spot to ladder his shot totals.

Team Shots Under Parlay (+255, 1u)

Calgary Flames Under 27.5 Shots (-115) and St Louis Blues Under 24.5 Shots (-115)

Calgary has struggled badly in puck possession lately, while New Jersey remains one of the stronger teams in that area, ranking top five in the league in fewest shot attempts against over their last 10 games. Calgary has recorded fewer than 27 shots in each of their past five games and has only even cleared 24.5 shots twice in that span. With New Jersey likely to control possession, Calgary should have difficulty generating enough volume to threaten this number.

St Louis is in a similar situation, up against the best Corsi and Shot domination team in the league in the Carolina Hurricanes. Over their last 10 games, St Louis is in the bottom 6 at generating shot attempts at even strength, while Carolina is clearly the league's best.

Luke Hughes 2+ shots (-200, 2u) and 4+ shots (+400, 0.4u)

Luke Hughes has become noticeably more willing to shoot lately. He's averaging seven shot attempts per game over his last four contests, posting four shots in three of those games and three shots in the other. That's well above his season averages of 5.7 shot attempts and 2.2 shots on goal per game. The 4+ ladder offers strong upside if this increased volume continues, but the 2+ line remains the safer play. Even if Hughes regresses slightly toward his season norms, the probability of reaching two shots still appears higher than the implied odds of -200. Calgary tends to allow a greater share of shots to forwards than defensemen, but Hughes' current usage and recent shot volume still make these odds attractive.

Patrick Kane 1+ point (-122, 0.67u)

Kane has turned things around after a brief cold spell, picking up four points over his last three games. With Dylan Larkin out, Kane has taken on a larger offensive role alongside Alex DeBrincat. Their even-strength line has been generating more chances than they allow, and Detroit's top power play still carries plenty of offensive talent despite a recent slump. Given Kane's role and recent production, this line should likely be closer to -140, making -122 a solid price.

Connor Garland + Sean Monahan 1+ point Same Game Parlay (+275, 0.4u)

Garland has been an excellent addition in Columbus, quickly finding chemistry with Sean Monahan. Garland has scored four goals in his first three games with the club, while Monahan has quietly recorded at least one point in five of his last six games. We've already had success with this same prop over the last two games when it was priced around +320. Even at +275, this remains strong value given the correlation between the two linemates producing offense together.

Mavrik Bourque 1+ point (+116, 1u)

Since returning from the Olympic break, Bourque has been elevated into a larger role on Dallas' top line alongside Wyatt Johnston and Jason Robertson. While he isn't currently on the lethal top power-play unit, he has still managed to record at least one point in five of those seven games. He draws a favorable matchup tonight against an Oilers team that has allowed a league-worst 4.2 goals per game over their last 15 contests, giving Bourque another strong opportunity to extend his point streak.

Good luck if you're tailing! As always, results will be updated in next Thursday's column for full transparency. Please gamble responsibly and never wager more than you're willing to lose.

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