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The Carolina Hurricanes are now one win away from a Stanley Cup thanks a 4-2 win over the Vegas Golden Knights in Game 5 on Thursday night. The Hurricanes' top line finally showed up in a big way as Andrei Svechnikov scored a pair of power play goals while Sebastian Aho scored his first goal of the series, and just his second goal since the first round. Getting the party started was Jordan Staal, who tallied in the first period to give him goals in five straight games.

Nikolaj Ehlers kept his hot streak going with a trio of helpers in the game, adding four PIMs and a hit. He has 16 points in his last 13 games dating back to Game 1 of the second round.

Brandon Bussi was in net again for the Hurricanes and stopped 22 of 24 shots in the win. He has been steady for the 'Canes since entering for Frederik Andersen in Game 3.

 Pavel Dorofeyev scored both goals for the Golden Knights as he's up to 12 markers for the postseason. Goaltender Carter Hart allowed four goals on 20 shots in the loss.

Carolina has a chance to lift the Cup when these teams meet up for Game 6 on Sunday night.

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Across my last four Ramblings, we have been reviewing the fantasy production of some top performers to see whom they compared to from recent seasons, and if we can draw any kind of conclusions from that comparison. We had:

• Some top forward performers in Macklin Celebrini, Nick Suzuki, Vincent Trocheck, Sidney Crosby, and Leon Draisaitl.
• Some top defence performers in Cale Makar, Darren Raddysh, Charlie McAvoy, Moritz Seider, Jakob Chychrun, and Roman Josi.
• Some young forwards including Wyatt Johnston, Juraj Slafkovsky, Lucas Raymond, Beckett Sennecke, and Logan Cooley.
• Some young defencemen including Matthew Schaefer, Lane Hutson, Brock Faber, Brandt Clarke, and Luke Hughes.

We have two more comparisons to make. Today, we're returning to forwards and looking at lower-tier options. Which forward wasn't a high-end performer, but showed some similarities to a player who went on to have high-end seasons? Let's dig in.

Again, these comparisons are made with two adjustments. The first is that the parallels we're drawing are on a per-game basis at the same position, so it's relative to other forwards, with defencemen being excluded entirely. The second is that we're evaluating each forward relative to a 'replacement level' fantasy option. In short: on a per game basis and among forwards only, how did a forward's fantasy production compare to top waiver wire options? A more in-depth breakdown of these adjustments can be read here.

The eight stats we use for forwards are goals, assists, power-play points, shots, hits, blocks, penalty minutes, and face-off wins. Data is from Evolving Hockey and Natural Stat Trick. We are also considering only players who played at least 41 games in a season, and we're covering the last five regular seasons.

Dylan Holloway (2025-26) and Andrei Svechnikov (2022-23)

We see Svechnikov with a big edge in PIMs, and we see Holloway with a big edge in blocks. The real difference was power-play points. That has been a problem for Holloway, who has 21 power-play points in 136 regular season games as a member of the St. Louis Blues, or a little under 13 PPPs every 82 games. That is solid, but it's not great, and turning in seasons with under 15 PPPs makes it hard to have elite multi-cat seasons, especially when he doesn't take many penalties. It also highlights how Holloway's value is elevated in multi-cat leagues that don't count PIMs.

Holloway just finished his age-24 season while Svechnikov's 2022-23 campaign was his age-22 year. However, Holloway was late establishing himself as an NHLer whereas Svech was a regular from the age of 18. Holloway just crossed the 200-game plateau, totaling 225 career games, which is a much lower number than what Svech had accumulated by the end of the 2022-23 campaign, as he had totaled 347 games by that point. Now that Holloway is in his mid-20s with over 200 appearances to his name, he should really be hitting his prime production years.

When it comes down to it, Holloway's fantasy value is at the mercy of the players around him. Over the last two seasons, the Blues are 27^th in the league by total power-play goals, worse than teams like Seattle and Calgary. Because Holloway can post good shot and hit volumes, he will always have good multi-cat value. To take that next step in the fantasy realm, he needs to be able to push to, or past, the 20 power-play point plateau. To do that, he needs help from his teammates, but it remains to be seen when (or if) that happens.

Matthew Knies (2025-26) and Mason Marchment (2021-22)

Here we see Marchment's breakout season in Florida contain a healthy amount of penalty minutes, where Knies had a large edge in power-play production. Everything else was relatively similar, and I'm sure if fantasy managers were told that Knies' next four seasons would be reminiscent of what Marchment has done over the last four seasons, they would be disappointed.

We do have to keep two things in mind, and the first is the age difference. Knies just finished his age-23 season, which is three years earlier than the breakout campaign from Marchment. The second is that Marchment's fantasy value problem isn't that he's not productive, it's that he doesn't get a lot of ice time. Over the last four years, his primary points per 60 minutes at 5-on-5 (goals and first assists) is 1.58. That is higher than Matt Boldy, Mathew Barzal, Nick Suzuki, Bo Horvat, and Brad Marchand. However, Marchment has just had one season with over 16 minutes a game (this past 2025-26 campaign), and it was his first season with at least 2:00 minutes per game in PP ice time. Knies has back-to-back seasons with at least 18:30 per game and averaged between 2:25 – 2:50 per outing in PPTOI. That greatly differentiates his fantasy profile compared to what Marchment has typically had.

It is an interesting summer for the Toronto Maple Leafs as a new General Manager is hoping to turn them back into a playoff team, and that begins with having the top pick in the Draft. As with Holloway, Knies just crested the 200-game plateau during the 2025-26 campaign and is heading into his age-24 season. He has already been a very good across-the-board multi-cat performer, and his best days are still ahead of him.

Adam Fantilli (2025-26) and Sam Bennett (2024-25)

This is a duo where this kind of exercise can be very useful. Almost across the board, this performance from Fantilli was similar to the year prior from Bennett, except for PIMs, and that difference made Bennett's 2024-25 campaign much more valuable in multi-cat formats. On the flipside, in leagues without penalty minutes, Bennett's fantasy value takes a massive hit, and the edge would go to Fantilli. However, even in leagues without PIMs, they would have ended up close in value, and that helps highlight how two very different players can arrive at the same place.

The age difference is notable, with the two seasons being Fantilli's age-21 year and Bennett's being his age-28 campaign. The real reason why this comparison is important is the power-play points column. Neither was awful – Fantilli with 13 PPPs in 82 games this season and Bennett with 11 PPPs in 76 games last season – but neither was high-end. And the thing about power-play points is because most players don't accumulate much, a healthy total can create a huge edge in fantasy value and make up for deficiencies elsewhere. For example, Jake DeBrusk didn't have a great 2025-26 as he saw declines in five of the seven fantasy categories covered (excluding face-off wins). However, 24 of his 42 points came from the power play, and in leagues without FOWs, it takes him from a below-replacement level player to a top-125 forward. Here is a 42-point forward who put up 113 hits, blocks, and PIMs combined, but because he had such a high level of PPPs, he ended up more valuable than Jesper Bratt, who had 71 points with 110 hits, blocks, and PIMs.

That brings us back to Fantilli. If we leave all else from his 2025-26 season the same, but with 25 PPPs instead of 13, his fantasy value is similar to names like Jason Robertson and Tage Thompson. Bennett has the same ability, but given Florida's depth (when healthy), it seems unlikely he ever reaches the 25 PPP mark. Fantilli has the chance to do that, and when he does, that is when his fantasy stardom will become obvious.

Cole Caufield (2025-26) and Valeri Nichushkin (2023-24)

The season we're using for Nichushkin was the year he had 16 power-play goals in 54 games, leading to 28 total goals. He has missed 30% of his regular season games over the last five seasons, which might be why we never think of him as a high-end producer. He had years of doing very well on a per-game basis, he just didn't play a lot of games; from 2021-2024, he averaged 34 goals, 40 assists, 241 shots, and 22 PPPs every 82 appearances.

What this comparison should make us think about is what Nichushkin did after that 2023-24 season. Over his last two campaigns, his 82-game average is 27 goals, 32 assists, 198 shots, and 9 PPPs every 82 games. It is still solid, but not near what he did across the prior three seasons, and the uneven power play of the Colorado Avalanche means guys that don't get heavy minutes with a lot of puck touches – Nathan MacKinnon, Martin Necas, and Cale Makar – are less reliable for good power-play production.

Caufield is younger now (turned 25 in January) than Nichushkin was then (it was his age-28 season), and Caufield has a better track record of health, even with the shoulder issues a few years ago. He and Suzuki are still in their primes, so there's no immediate concern of a 20-50% decline in various fantasy stats across the board. But Caufield has played in six seasons and has over 400 games when including the postseason. He isn't a developing player anymore – he has reached his apex. It is just a matter of how long he can stay there.

Marco Rossi (2025-26) and Dylan Strome (2021-22)

This is an interesting duo because Strome's first full season was at the age of 21 and then at the age of 24 he was traded to the Washington Capitals, where his career really took off. Rossi's first full season was at the age of 22, and then at the age of 24 he was traded to the Vancouver Canucks, where his career…?

In his 2021-22 season, Strome managed 2.98 points per 60 minutes when he skated next to Patrick Kane. Across the 2024-25 and 2025-26 seasons, Rossi managed 2.81 points per 60 minutes when he skated next to Kirill Kaprizov. The real difference is that Strome was traded to a team that had Alex Ovechkin and John Carlson, whereas Rossi was traded to a team that is starting a rebuild. There is talent in Vancouver, but at his best, Elias Pettersson is their top forward, and Rossi won't skate with him at 5-on-5. Their best wingers are nowhere near the goal scorers that Ovechkin is and Zeev Buium is not yet at Carlson's level. However, as with others we've seen earlier in this article, Rossi crested the 200-game plateau in 2025-26 and should be ready to take the next step.

Whether Rossi can follow in Strome's footsteps will be up to Vancouver having a competent power play, Buium ascending as an offensive defenceman, the wingers playing up to their potential, and so forth. Rossi has the talent to average 25 goals and 45 assists every 82 games as Strome has over the last three years, it's just a matter of how long this rebuild takes, and the quality of the team until the rebuild is over. Those are very much open questions.