Frozen Tools Forensics: Fantasy Stock Increases for Byram, Lafrenière, Nemec, Bourque, and Others
Chris Kane
2026-07-17
Last week we did a quick survey around the league to take stock of the impacts of all of the player movement we have seen this summer. We focused on players who potentially saw their fortunes dip. This week we are taking a look at players who hopefully saw theirs increase.
The research for this article comes mainly from our Frozen Tool options with the player profile pages providing the significant source of history. We are also using the line tools to review deployment and access to high quality players. Finally, the Dobber editing team also published trade/player movement reviews indicating which players benefitted and were hurt by each significant change.
We have to start with one of the biggest contracts of the off season with Bowen Byram. He signed for six years at $12.5-million after Chicago traded their 4th overall pick for him. Clearly they saw something they liked and were willing to move a lot to get it. Byram presumably becomes the number one D in Chicago, finally out from behind the shadows of Cale Makar and Rasmus Dahlin. Being the main guy is clearly going to be a good thing, the question is more about ceiling than anything else. It isn't like Byram hasn't been getting ice time, he has averaged about 22 and a half minutes over the last two seasons in Buffalo, but has never seen more than 30 percent of the team's power-play and has never exceeded seven power-play points in a season. He should get the top power play in Chicago so his production should change, but again it is a question of expectations. Seth Jones, the last power-play quarterback in Chicago, never exceeded 19 power-play points while there. Jones certainly wasn't there for long with Connor Bedard, so maybe we can look at San Jose for a D comp. Unfortunately, they rotated the D a bit, but Dmitry Orlov did end up seeing quite a bit of the top time and ended the season with 18 power-play points. Give Byram the benefit of the doubt compared to Jones and Orlov and maybe he can hit 25 power-play points which would bring his total from the past two seasons close to 60. We will also have to see if the change helps his peripherals as he has historically blocked less than 1.5 times per game and shot a little over once per game. He used to be a bigger hitter, but the last two seasons in Buffalo were well below a hit per game. Moral of the story, it seems like a successful season would be 55-60 points and slightly improved peripherals.
Mackie Samoskevich should be better, right? He is moving from the Florida Panthers where he got a career high of only 14 and a half minutes a night, and less than 40 percent of the team's power play. Clearly there is some room to grow here. The challenge is figuring out exactly where he is going to line up for the Seattle Kraken. Thus far there are only two players not returning in Jaden Schwartz and likely Eeli Tolvanen (who isn't signed anywhere yet), but neither of them were fixtures in the top six. That is also part of the problem in Seattle – what exactly is the top six? The line with Matty Beniers seems to usually get top minutes but Jordan Eberle, Jared McCann, and Bobby McMann (all off Beniers' most common linemates last season) are back. There is definitely some untapped potential with Samoskevich, and this could be a good opportunity for him, but it is not a guarantee as third-line, second power-play on the Kraken certainly is not an improvement from his depth role in Florida.
Alexis Lafreniere reached a career high with a 57-point pace in 2025-26. He did it with a career high 15 power-play points. Unfortunately, during much of the season he was battling with Vincent Trotchek for the last power-play spot. Artemi Panarin getting traded opened up one spot, and then Vincent Trocheck leaving over the summer opened another, but then the New York Rangers went and added Pavel Dorofeyev. Still, it should mean that Lafreniere gets a shot on the top power play. In 2025-26 other members of the top power play saw 70-75 percent of the team's total power-play time and averaged about 24 power-play points. In practical terms that would be an increase of about a minute a night for Lafreniere and possibly 10 additional power-play points. If he sticks, he should be able to translate that to 60-65 points, and with a little good fortune (and some increased shooting) might be able to hit a 70-point pace for the first time.
On the flip side, Pavel Dorofeyev is a consistent power-play merchant getting 30 power-play points with Vegas in 25-26. He signed a big contract with the Rangers this offseason, so clearly they are willing to make a bet on him. Likely it means he is penciled in on the top power play, so any changes in value will depend on where he lines up at even strength. He bounced around the lineup a bit, but generally got to play with strong linemates, even if the total time on ice wasn't that significant.
There are question marks for Simon Nemec, but it is clear he, like Byram, is in a much-improved deployment situation. In New Jersey, he never broke 20 minutes a night or 30 percent of the team's power play. Those roles were typically given to Dougie Hamilton and Luke Hughes. In Calgary he is the highest paid D, and with Mackenzie Weegar and Rasmus Andersson no longer in the picture, seems poised to step into a big role. Zayne Parekh is the clearest competition for power-play time, though Parekh struggled in his first taste of NHL action so it isn't clear what kind of role he will actually have in 2026-27. Like with Byram, all signs point to Nemec being a go-to guy in Calgary, but the exact role, and the production we can expect given the surrounding cast are a bit of a question.
Mavrik Bourque showed some flashes in Dallas of what he might be able to do in the top six. Overall, he only averaged about 15 and a half minutes of ice time, and less than a quarter of the team's power-play time, but after about January 20th, he averaged closer to 17 and a half minutes a night and put up a 62-point pace while playing with some top linemates. That was all still without meaningful power-play time. By the end of last season players like Matthew Wood and Luke Evangelista were getting power-play or even strength minutes with Filip Forsberg, Ryan O'Reilly, and Steven Stamkos. There is no reason Bourque should not be in that mix, and if he is, particularly if he wins the top line, top power-play lottery he should see a big jump in production.
That is all for this week.
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