For the last few weeks, my Ramblings have been reviewing my projections for the 2026-27 fantasy hockey season. On Tuesday, we evaluated players with LW/RW designations and which of them are good draft values. Before that, we covered those with C/LW designations and their draft values. In the handful of Ramblings prior to the positional write-ups, we discussed draft values for:

With the final fantasy draft weekend upon us, yesterday's Ramblings covered forwards I'm targeting or avoiding, and today's Ramblings will cover defencemen and goalies. We are going to use ADP data from Fantrax and the data for my projections come from Evolving Hockey, Natural Stat Trick, All Three Zones, and Frozen Tools. The fantasy categories are goals, assists, shots, blocks, hits, and power-play points.

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My projections use a value method called 'Z-Score' which just reflects how far above/below a player's projection is in a given category compared to a replacement-level player in a 12-team league. The further above/below, the higher/lower the Z-Score value. We will start with the players to draft, and having completed nine fantasy drafts thus far, each player on my Target List are guys I've drafted at least twice.

Defencemen/Goalies to Target

There won't be a chart for every player mentioned, but rather one chart for those I'm targeting and one for those I'm avoiding. The chart below will show the overall Z-Score fantasy value along with their position rank in my projections compared to their position rank by Fantrax ADP. That intersection gives us their total fantasy and ADP value. The red lines are the cut-offs for those with positive fantasy value and positive draft value. These are some of the defencemen I've been focusing on:

Let's discuss them.

Rasmus Dahlin (Buffalo Sabres)

The very top of my board has for overall fantasy value among blue liners has Cale Makar and Zach Werenski, which makes sense. Dahlin is my third defenceman, ahead of both Quinn Hughes and Evan Bouchard. Once Buffalo came alive last year, so did Dahlin, posting 58 points in 55 games from December 1^st onward. My projections have him with his first career point-per-game effort, and that makes him a draft value this season.

Charlie McAvoy (Boston Bruins)

What concerns me with McAvoy is that he has a six-game suspension to start the season, which means his maximum games played is 78. Over the last five years, he's missed 17.5% of his games, which would take him from 78 games to 64 games. The good news is he finished 11^th in this setup last year even while missing 13 games. If McAvoy can stay above the 70-game mark, he should be a good draft value.

Shea Theodore (Vegas Golden Knights)

This is a weird one because Theodore brings so little for hit and block peripherals that it should completely nuke his fantasy value. However, with the expectation that he takes a full-time top power-play role wildly changes his production output as he's a 70-point threat in a healthy season. He isn't a great fantasy value, but there are plenty of later picks who can fill the hit/block columns, and few have defencemen drafted outside the top 10 have the production upside that Theodore does.

Filip Hronek (Vancouver Canucks)

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There is a real chance that Zeev Buium runs the Canucks' top PP unit from start to finish this season, and that would be a big problem for Hronek's fantasy value. My projections assume it's closer to a 50/50 split, and that gives Hronek double-digit PP points, and puts 40 points, 125 shots, 125 hits, and 100 blocks well within reach once again. Regardless of the power-play split, Hronek is going to get a lot of ice time, and the Canucks should be better offensively at 5-on-5 (not good, but better).

Luca Cagnoni (San Jose Sharks)

Full disclosure that I have yet to draft Cagnoni, but it's only because most of my leagues are shallow-ish and I don't need more than four defencemen. In any type of fantasy format that requires more than 50 defencemen being drafted, he should be on the list. He rates just inside my top 60 blue liners, and the news that he's been running San Jose's top PP unit in training camp is a very good sign for his fantasy potential. Maybe he ends up like Buium last year, where he starts on the power play, struggles, and then has his role minimized, but in fantasy hockey, opportunity is critical and he has the opportunity right now.

Jet Greaves (Columbus Blue Jackets)

Last year, Greaves was my most frequently drafted goalie. This season, he is once again my most frequently drafted goalie. He has 73 career starts across four seasons and has been nothing short of good-to-great. With the injury to Elvis Merzlikins, there is a clear path to Greaves exceeding the 53 starts he made last year, and it makes him a top 10 goalie on my board, and a good draft value.

Joel Hofer (St. Louis Blues)

Using wins, save percentage, and goals against average, Hofer was a top 20 fantasy goalie last season. He did that with just 43 starts, and with the Blues being a bottom 5 team through the first half of the season. If Hofer gets closer to 50 starts, and the Blues are the mid-range team they were in the second half of the season, he has the skills and the situation to be a top 12 goalie. That he's being drafted outside the top 20 goalies makes him a target.

Defencemen to Avoid

Below are four defencemen that I have yet to draft this fantasy season, and unless something changes, it is unlikely that I draft them at all:

Let's go through why.

Evan Bouchard (Edmonton Oilers)

The time to get maximum draft value for Bouchard was last year. He is now often going as a top 3 defenceman in drafts this year, and that's too high. Last season, he registered a point on 54.5% of even-strength goals when he was on the ice; he had never reached 50% in any prior season and had a three-year average of 41.5%. Just being at 45%, which is still higher than any season from 2022-2025, would knock 10 points off his total from last season. He needs 95 points to repeat his fantasy value from a season ago, and my projections have him for 86, making him a player to avoid.

Adam Fox (New York Rangers)

My projections have Fox getting back to the 70-point plateau for the first time in three years. The problem is he brings very few hits and shots, meaning he's a drag in one-third of the fantasy categories. It has also been hard to rely on him staying in the lineup as he's not reached 75 games played in any of the last three campaigns. With his inability to contribute to shots and hits, and that he's not a super-elite point producer like Quinn Hughes, it is hard to take Fox as a top 10 defenceman.

Bowen Byram (Chicago Blackhawks)

There are two things that are true about Byram:

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His new team will afford him the opportunity to be a true #1 defenceman, both at even strength and on the power play.
His lack of shots, hits, and blocks effectively make him a three-category defenceman.

The good news is that Byram is not being drafted anywhere near the ADP that Fox is, often going somewhere in the 20-25 range. The bad news is that to reach that value with his low rate of peripherals, he probably needs at least a 60-point season. It is just a lot to ask and makes me shy to draft him.

Brock Faber (Minnesota Wild)

What worries me about Faber is a drop in PP production thanks to a full season from Quinn Hughes, and that he loses some ice time if the Wild blue line – namely Jonas Brodin and Jared Spurgeon – stays healthy. My projections have Faber reaching double-digit goals and 45 points, which is a very good season for a non-PP1 defenceman, but not enough to pay off an ADP that is in the same range as Shea Theodore, who has a top PP role.

Ilya Sorokin (New York Islanders)

This isn't much to do with Sorokin so much as it is his situation. There are few goalies who've been consistently excellent as him for several years, but the Islanders did nothing to improve their roster in the offseason, and it appears they may start the season with a three-goalie rotation. That probably won't last long, but regardless of how good Sorokin is, taking him as a top 5 goalie when he's on a (likely) non-playoff team and part of a three-goalie rotation, however brief, is putting too much faith in any goaltender.