Welcome back to Puck Picks! As this is Week 1 of the NHL season, I’ll quickly review what you can expect from this column. Each Thursday, I break down some of my favorite NHL bets, explain the reasoning behind them, and track performance transparently. The goal of this column isn’t just to share picks, but to help you recognize why certain spots have value so you can identify them on your own throughout the season. I’ll be tracking every pick in this column, logging units won and lost as the year progresses.

Last season, we finished with +21.84 units in profit, averaging an 8% return per article. The approach this year stays the same. Expect a mix of shot props, point props, team shot props, and correlated same-game parlays, with the odds guiding exactly which bets I take. The goal is long-term profitability and disciplined wagering, not chasing long-shot parlays.

Early in the year, lines are still adjusting to new line combinations, ice-time distributions, and systems. That’s where we want to strike before the market fully corrects.

Let’s dive into tonight’s picks:

Leon Draisaitl Anytime Goal (+105, 1u)

We’re starting the season by attacking a matchup we literally just watched, and wow was it entertaining! Edmonton and Vancouver met on Tuesday, and Draisaitl was all over the puck. He fired 11 shot attempts, rang one off the post, and had several other high-quality looks that just didn’t find the back of the net.

Draisaitl has also historically owned this matchup. Across 50 career regular-season games against Vancouver, he has 29 goals and 62 points, which is close to 0.6 goals per game. Recently, he's even more efficient, scoring in 10 of his last 13 games against them (including last game where he failed to bury one).

Getting plus money on a goal from a player with this kind of track record against this opponent, coming off a game where the chances were clearly there, is a spot I’ll take every time.

Leon Draisaitl 3+ Shots (-155, 1.3u), 5+ shots (+340, .2u), 6+ shots (+750, .1u)

Eleven shot attempts in the opener suggests Draisaitl isn’t shy about shooting the puck this year, at least against this opponent. Even with some of those attempts getting blocked or missing the net, that kind of volume makes three shots on goal a very reachable number. If he comes out with the same approach tonight, this line should clear comfortably. We are shooting for upside with the high ends of the ladder here with 5+ and 6+ shots on goal, but will still profit if he just gets 3 or 4.

Vancouver Canucks Under 25.5 Shots (-111, 2u)

Staying in the same game, this is one of my favorite plays of the night. The Oilers dominated Corsi For percentage on Tuesday, and that was the story for Vancouver all of last season. The Canucks finished bottom three in the league in shots for per 60 at even strength.

Through one game, not much looks different in their puck possession or shot share. Team shots were my most consistent edge last season because they’re less volatile than individual props, and this one checks every box. A weak shot generation team, facing an opponent that just controlled play against them, makes 26 shots a tough number to reach.

Dylan Guenther 4+ Shots (+146, 1u)

Guenther is a shooter, plain and simple. He ranked second in the league in shot attempts per 60 last season and carried that right into the preseason with 16 shot attempts across his two games.

The matchup helps too. Chicago just allowed 36 shots against Vegas on Tuesday, so there should be plenty of offensive zone time for Utah. When you combine an elite volume shooter with a defense that’s already showing it can get caved in, the 4+ line at plus money offers real value.

New Jersey Devils Over 28.5 Shots (-125, 1.5u)

New Jersey was a top five team in shots for last season, averaging 29.3 per game. On paper, Philadelphia’s reputation as one of the league’s best shot suppressors makes this look like a tough spot. But that profile hasn’t shown up so far this year, as the Flyers allowed 38 shots against Pittsburgh last night.

Now they’re on the second half of a back-to-back. I don’t expect them to do a complete 180 and shut down one of the league’s highest volume offenses on tired legs. This line is leaning too heavily on last season’s numbers.

Tampa Bay Lightning @ New York Rangers Under 55.5 Total Shots (-117, 2u)

Tampa Bay was one of the better teams in shot share last season, but they did it in a way that kept games low event. They limited their opponents’ shots and held onto possession until a prime scoring opportunity opened up, rather than throwing everything at the net.

The numbers back that up. The Lightning averaged 27.8 shots for per 60 last season, while the Rangers averaged just 24.9, second worst in the league. Combined, that’s 52.7, well below tonight’s line of 55.5.

New York also just played in a low-event game with 47 total shots. I expect another one here, especially if Tampa gets a lead and settles into its possession game.

SGP: Nico Hischier & Luke Evangelista 1+ Point Each (+150, 0.7u)

This is really the only type of same-game parlay I target: highly correlated scoring events with fair odds. Hischier and Evangelista showed immediate chemistry in the preseason, connecting on two goals together already. They’re skating on the same even-strength line and share the top power-play unit, so if one of them hits the scoresheet, there’s a strong chance the other is involved.

As the season goes on, books tend to tighten these correlated lines once the chemistry is obvious. Spots like this +150 are worth targeting before that happens.

Good luck if you’re tailing! Results will be updated in next Thursday’s column for full transparency. Please gamble responsibly and never wager more than you’re willing to lose.

Follow me on X (@fantasycheddar) for more daily betting picks and fantasy hockey analysis throughout the season.