Welcome back to Puck Picks! Each Thursday, I break down some of my favorite NHL bets, explain the reasoning behind them, and track performance transparently. The goal of this column isn't just to share picks, but to help you recognize why certain spots have value so you can identify them throughout the season. I'll be tracking every pick transparently in this column, logging units won and lost as the year progresses.

Last week, we went 3-3 for -0.62 units. That brings the season record to 21-15 for +3.07 units, with an average bet return of 5.7%.

Let's dive into tonight's picks:

Logan Cooley 2+ Shots (175, 1.8u)

Cooley has really stepped up his play over the past couple of weeks, scoring five goals in his last four games. He's much more confident shooting the puck right now and is even dumping it on net from distance.

Over those four games, he's averaging 3.25 shots on 6.25 attempts, and he's hit 2+ shots in eight of his last 10 games. He's also a rare player who shoots more on the road than at home, so tonight's spot only helps.

Andrew Copp Under 1.5 Shots (-135, 1.5u)

Copp is being counted on for big minutes, but mostly in a shutdown role. Even when he's in the offensive zone, he's a pass-first player.

He's stayed under this line in seven of his last 10 games, including five straight, and he's posted just two shot attempts in each of those five games. For this to lose, we'd need him to hit the net on 100% of his attempts or suddenly change his approach. At -135, the book has this under at about 57%, while his recent hit rate sits at 70%. This is a great spot for the under.

Marc Gatcomb 2+ Hits (-113, 5.2u)

Hit props are rare to find on most books, but they are out there. I don't usually love sharing them because the big books often don't offer them, but this line is too good to ignore. It should be closer to 3.5 than 1.5.

Gatcomb doesn't get a ton of ice time, but he makes it count with his physicality, especially lately. He's recorded 3+ hits in each of his last 12 games and is averaging 4.1 hits per game over his last 10. At -113, the book is giving him about a 53% chance to reach two hits, a number he's cleared with room to spare in every game for almost a month.

I usually don't love putting this many units on one play, but when a line is this juicy, you have to take advantage.

John Carlson No Power-Play Point (-400, 4u)

Some might tell you that betting something with odds this short is crazy. Well, I disagree. This line is being priced as if Carlson is on the top power-play unit, but Jon Cooper has been experimenting with alternating Brandon Hagel and Anthony Cirelli there, not Carlson. Carlson isn't getting a lick of time on PP1, with Charles-Edouard D'Astous thriving in that spot.

At -400, the book is giving Carlson an 80% chance of going without a power-play point. Stuck on the second unit, he's much closer to a 91% chance, which would put this line closer to -1000. When the gap between the price and the true probability is this big, short odds don't scare me off.

Dylan Holloway 1+ Point (+115, 1u), Anytime Goal (+340, 0.3u)

It seems like I keep targeting the Blues' top line on Thursdays… Well, Holloway was reunited on the top line with Robert Thomas and Jimmy Snuggerud last game, and the line generated five scoring chances at even strength. All five came from Holloway, who totalled six individual scoring chances and five shots in the game.

He's not on the top power-play unit, but he's still getting ample power-play time on the second unit. That's why I like his individual props here rather than parlaying him with Thomas or Snuggerud, which is an option. Holloway is the one driving the offense on this line right now, so we don't need his linemates to get involved for this to cash.

At +115, the book has Holloway at about a 47% chance to record a point, and his goal prop at +340 implies just 23%. For a player creating every one of his line's chances and firing five shots a night, both prices offer plenty of value.

Anaheim Ducks @ Edmonton Oilers Over 6.5 Goals (-142, 1.5u), Over 7.5 Goals (+150, 0.5u)

Both of these teams have been red-hot lately. They're each in the top 10 in goals scored per 60 over their last 10 games, and Anaheim ranks first over its last five. The power plays are clicking, and there's plenty of chance generation at even strength on both sides.

What makes me love this play even more is the goalie situation. As great as Tristan Jarry has been lately, it's still Tristan Jarry, who has consistently been one of the worst goalies in the league over the past few seasons. And whichever goalie Anaheim starts tonight isn't going to be much better.

At -142, the book has the over 6.5 at about 59%, and the over 7.5 at +150 implies 40%. With two hot offenses, clicking power plays, and shaky goaltending at both ends, expect a shootout.

Good luck if you're tailing! Results will be updated in next Thursday's column for full transparency. Please gamble responsibly and never wager more than you're willing to lose.

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