Roos Lets Loose

 Roos investigates players who will disappoint ... or improve in the West next season

Welcome to Part 2 of my series about non-playoff teams, focusing on two players from each team – one who I think is a good bet to improve next season, and another who I feel will disappoint. In last week’s column I tackled the Eastern Conference, so this week it’s time for the West. For my “Final Verdict”, I’ll again go over some keys to identifying guys like these, plus talk about how this really all boils down to value versus expectations.

Roos takes a look at non-playoff teams and gives suggestions on which players will improve and who will disappoint in 2013-14. First up - the Eastern Conference

This time of year, most fantasy hockey enthusiasts are either closely following their guys in the playoffs or taking a break until free agent signings begin during the summer. The problem is that both approaches ignore the players on the 14 teams which didn’t make the NHL playoffs, and risks an “out of sight, out of mind” situation where you won’t be able to remember enough about these players when the time comes for retentions or offseason deals.

Here is the first of a two-part column about players on non-playoffs teams (this week covering the Eastern Conference teams, next week the Western Conference), focusing on two players from each team – one who I think is a good bet to improve next season, and another who I feel will disappoint. 

Cage Match – Alex Goligoski vs. Roman Josi

This week will feature a matchup that was debated a bit in the DobberHockey forums in a thread I replied to. There were some valid points made on both sides so I felt like a deeper look was warranted. So Goligoski vs. Josi it is.

Cage Match – Zach Bogosian vs. Erik Johnson

The trend with the recent Cage Match articles is about giving the people what they want so by request we will get our bust on this week looking at Zach Bogosian and Erik Johnson. Now you might argue that the bust label is unfair so allow me to qualify. It’s completely unfair to label a guy who skates over 20 minutes a night for his team a bust, regardless of his draft position but from a fantasy perspective well that gets a bit more reasonable. When a defenseman gets drafted that high we assume he has some offensive acumen and we hope he’s going to be the next Chris Pronger. The problem is that there’s only one Chris Pronger and even with him the dividends were slow to arrive.  So even when considering fantasy hockey you have to be really careful when applying that bust label to a defenseman because they can take forever to develop.

Roos takes a look at declining forwards who should no longer be considered 60-point players

In last week’s column,  I looked at forwards who should no longer be projected to score 75+ points in a season during their career, as this is a great time of year to identify guys to finally write off as never being able to achieve a certain level of production – what I call the “time to downgrade” guys. There were lots of great comments and good debates in response to last week's Part 1 article, so hopefully that momentum will carry into this week, when in Part 2 we look at several forwards who should now be ruled out as 60+ point scorers.

Laidlaw's latest cage match - PK Subban vs. Kris Letang

I have been waiting for months, nay years, to spring a Kris Letang vs. Erik Karlsson Cage Match. It feels like it should be a compelling matchup. The problem is every chance Letang gets to sneak ahead he goes and gets hurt. He’s now officially on Dobber’s Band-Aid Boy list. Injuries are always going to be a problem with him – there’s just no avoiding that now. So as much as I would love to spout on about how Letang could be a better bet than Karlsson in a fantasy league I can’t because he can’t stay healthy long enough for that to be a reasonable possibility. And yes Karlsson is out with that gross Achilles slicing incident, which caused us to demote him from god-status to demi-god, but the freak of nature may actually play on Thursday! He’s back up to god status – nothing can hold him back. It feels like it’s taken Karlsson less time to get back from this Achilles cut than it has for Letang to get back from his groin pull (and that’s only part hyperbole). Seriously, I would love to do this Cage Match, but Karlsson is in-human. We’ve got to find a better comparison.

Enter Pernell-Karl Subban.

Time to downgrade Pavelski, Ryan, Staal, Sharp and Koivu says Rick Roos

Every year right before the playoffs, while information is still fresh on our minds about players from all 30 teams, it’s good to take stock of what happened during the season and how it might impact the future. Some people like to make mental notes on which guys are trending upward or might be poised for a breakout next season; but I find that doing the opposite actually can be more useful and reliable at this point in time.  So instead, I figure out which guys I can finally write off as never being able to achieve a certain level of production – I call it my “time to downgrade” guys.

After a brief Stamkos vs. Tavares discussion, Laidlaw looks at Eric Staal vs. Anze Kopitar

I recently asked for suggestions for my next Cage Match article. From the sounds of it you guys really, really, really want to see a Steven Stamkos vs. John Tavares matchup. Here’s the problem – it’s too damned simple. Seriously, the only acceptable answer is Stamkos. I get that Tavares has similarly great pedigree and is really starting to shine but to this point Stamkos has a far better track record of NHL production. Why go out on a limb?

 Roos investigates the fantasy impact of teams changing philosophy down the stretch...

As if fantasy hockey isn’t challenging enough, we’ve now entered the final stretch of the regular season. This means that NHL teams have changed their focus and approach, depending on where they are in the playoff hunt. Of course this will impact players on those teams, and fantasy owners who are in tight races will need to factor in even more variables than usual in setting their lineups. So this week, let's discuss the ways that three types of teams will alter their game plans, and how that in turn will affect the fantasy value of their players: 

1. locks for a playoff spot

2. actively fighting for a playoff spot

3. out of the playoff hunt.

This week's fantasy hockey cage match: Anisimov vs. Matthias.

Post-hype sleeper is a term you don’t hear often in fantasy hockey (it’s more of a fantasy baseball term) but I feel like it’s a term every poolie should get acquainted with regardless of his fantasy sport of choice. The reason is that the post-hype sleeper is quite possibly the best bang for your buck you can find. For instance, if you were patient or savvy enough to acquire any of Sam Gagner, Nazem Kadri or Jakub Voracek you’d have landed yourself a player far exceeding his projections and his draft slot if only because some of the shine had worn off because of exposure. These guys pop up every year though – after disappointing us for years they finally “get it” and produce. Joffrey Lupul and Blake Wheeler were two fine examples from last year and if you still aren’t convinced that the post-hype sleeper is a real thing well then I guess you can just keep on hitting the snooze button. This week’s Cage Match features two such post-hype sleepers, Artem Anisimov vs. Shawn Matthias.