Saturday NHL Picks: November 12, 2016

Coretti

2016-11-12

Picking the winners of Saturday's NHL contests.

And the run continues. 89% is not sustainable, however, who is complaining? The board tonight is quite tough to be honest and this weekend will be very difficult to call. Here we go.

Record: 16 – 2

Detroit @ Montreal (7pm ET)

Was there ever any real doubt that Carey Price is the best goalie on the planet? Not for me. It is safe to say that the king is back and nothing going forward will dethrone him barring another injury. When I bet on the Canadiens it is completely contingent on Price starting. Without him I would never sprinkle on the Habs. Why? For one Price is unbeatable on most nights but more importantly the Habs play with swagger when Carey is in the crease. The Canadiens currently sit atop of the league with 25 points and Carey has yet to lose this season. I really don’t think the Red Wings will be the first to give Carey his first lose. This could come down to a goaltending battle as Jimmy Howard has slowly inched his way back into the picture in Detroit with his recent stellar play. Although a win in Montreal would do wonders for Howard and his case at reclaiming his #1 gig, Price is just too good. Give me the Habs.

Key Stat: Red Wings are 0-5 in the last 5 meetings in Montreal.

Pick: Montreal – Home Team Win – H

Toronto @ Pittsburgh (7pm ET)

The Pens continue to look like the defending Stanley Cup champions as they are 7-2-1 in their last 10 games. At home the Pens have been rather solid with a 6-1-1 record although they are coming off their first regulation home loss. Sidney Crosby continues to score at a ridiculous rate with nine goals in eight games. Life is good for the Pens. On the other end the Leafs are right where most of us expected them and that is just outside the wild card spot. The rookies have been standout for the Leafs and the goaltending was starting to heat up until Frederik Andersen fell off again allowing seven goals in his last two games. It is interesting to note however that Auston Matthews has only scored two goals in his last 12 games since his four-goal eruption to start the season. The Pens should get a routine win here and rebound from their recent 4-3 loss to the Wild two nights ago. 

Key Stat: Maple Leafs are 1-7 in the last 8 meetings.

Pick: Pittsburgh – Home Team Win – H

Minnesota @ Philadelphia (7pm ET)

The Flyers come into this matchup having dropped a 6-3 loss last night against the Leafs. The main issue for the Flyers this season seems to be goaltending as both Steve Mason and Michael Neuvirth have been horrendous. Luckily for me I own Mason and he has single handily destroyed my goalie category. To make matters worse the Flyers are on the tail end of a back-to-back against a surging Wild squad. But for some reason I like the Flyers here. With Neuvirth set to start I think the Wild will get the W. Possibly a high scoring game with Philly getting the last laugh. 

Key Stat: Wild are 1-4 in the last 5 meetings.

Pick: Philadelphia – Home Team Win – H

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St. Louis @ Columbus (7pm ET)

Boy oh boy are the Blue Jackets playing some great hockey. The scoring has been rather balanced and the PP has been bonkers running at 32.4%. To top it all off the goaltending has been superb as Sergei Bobrovsky owns a .935 SV% and 2.16 GAA on the season. The Blues head into Columbus having scored 33 goals on the year which is good for 24th in the league. Colorado is the only team that they have managed to score more than two goals against in their last 10 games. So why am I taking the Blues? For one, Bobrovsky was pulled in his last game allowing four goals on nine shots against the Bruins. Second, the Blues are a much better team on paper. Third, these are the games that the Blues need and will continue to win until their offense finds its groove. Take the Blues in a tight contest.   

Key Stat: Blues are 14-6 in the last 20 meetings.

Pick: St. Louis – Visitor Team Win – V      

Boston @ Arizona (8pm ET)

I should write refer to Carey Price here because Tuukka Rask has been equally valuable to the Bruins this season. How does a .938 SV% and 1.76 GAA sound? Superb. The Bruins continue to try and find some consistency to their game as they battle for a wild card spot. One of the main issues for the Bees this season has been the lack thereof a power play that currently runs at 14%. That number will go up as the season progresses and as it does so will the wins column for the Bruins. There is not much to say about the Yotes as they currently sit at the bottom of the Western Conference. Boston seems to play Arizona really well and the Bruins should get the W on the road tonight.

Key Stat: Bruins are 8-0 in the last 8 meetings.

Pick: Boston – Visitor Team Win – V

New York @ Calgary (10pm ET)

What a disaster in Calgary. Obviously, I own both Dougie Hamilton and Mark Giordano who have been abysmal to start the season. I am confident that Giordano will bust out of this slump but the same cannot be said about Dougie. A combined minus-9 and two PPP on the season between the two… yucky!  The Flames PP has been really bad connecting at an 8% clip. Sean Monahan has started off the season on the wrong foot with only six points and a minua-10. Will things turn around in Calgary? At least not tonight. The Rangers are no joke this season as they have only lost twice in their last 10 games. The scoring has come from all over and the Rangers will be a tough task for the Flames tonight. Give me the Rangers who will manage to keep Johnny quiet.

Key Stat:  Rangers are 6-2 in the last 8 meetings.

Pick: New York – Visitor Team Win – V

 

10 Comments

  1. John Koten 2016-11-12 at 09:06

    I’ve been reading this series for awhile, but the predictions are getting less interesting. So far this year there hasn’t been a single pick that’s gone against the Vegas line. I love reading the explanations and think they’re great, but the picks themselves I could get by just looking up the favorite on Bodog or any other betting site.

    • Cam Robinson 2016-11-12 at 13:18

      Sadly, I agree. Picking winners isn’t an easy job with the parity in the league these days, but picking favourites is no recipe for earning any cash.

      • Diffusion 2016-11-16 at 11:43

        With the string of wins they are on I have made a nice chunk of change. The current format is great. Just keep picking the winners.

  2. Jonathan Coretti 2016-11-12 at 09:49

    What’s interesting to me is $$$ and a 16-2 record. Why would I bet against the Vegas line if my brain is telling me otherwise? If there was a game I felt confident on that was against the line and worth a shot I would mention it…but I’m in the business of making money and sometimes you have to lay the juice to achieve that. Pretty sure Flyers at -110 is not bad… Blues at -125…. Rangers at -135… If I was hammering teams at -300 with no value I would agree with you.

    I could potentially include a DOG of the night… but why would I bet on a dog if I have a “favorite” that I like much more…

    • John Koten 2016-11-12 at 12:16

      Sorry. I didn’t mean to come off quite so harsh. I didn’t mean it to sound like there’s no value in the column. It might just be that it’s getting harder and harder to find favorable lines, because the book is getting better and better at setting them. I guess maybe the best value is the favorites that are left out? It could be the time has passed when you can get a sneaky favorite at +150.

      • Jonathan Coretti 2016-11-12 at 13:04

        The time hasn’t passed but to be honest.. Vegas puts them as an underdog for a reason so there is always higher risk involved.. I like to minimize risk as much as possible.

        No need to be sorry though I understand your point… I really try to find those nice + plays but it’s been really tough.. Tonight for example, you could sprinkle on the Isles in Florida at +150… But that game can truly go either way.

        My VALUE pick for tonight would be NYI @ FLA TIE or NYI ML…

  3. kech 2016-11-12 at 12:51

    enjoying your picks. keep it up

  4. wonko 2016-11-12 at 15:17

    Would you trade Dougie Hamilton for Torey Krug. I have that offer right now and I am tempted.

    • Jonathan Coretti 2016-11-12 at 15:26

      I don’t expect Dougie to continue to play so horrid… however, Hamilton does have competition in CGY for PP time whereas Krug is pretty much the man. I need to know more details in order to pick one.. but in most standard leagues I’ll take Krug over Hamilton.

      • wonko 2016-11-12 at 16:21

        Thanks Jonathan. The league in question is a customized roto with added points for D men scoring (+1 for goals and +.5 for assists). HIts, blocks, shots, STP.

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