November 06, 2013

Dobber Sports

2013-11-06

Today marks DobberHockey’s eighth anniversary! Thank you everyone for making this work, and big thanks to all the writers and contributors over the years who helped this site succeed!

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Update: Attention new forum users – anyone who registered to DobberHockey since 10/16 did not get registered to the forum and this is still an issue. Rather than fix this issue, we are going to move forward with upgrading the forum. Once upgraded, we’ll fix the issue at that point. If you login and can’t access the forum and would like to – email me and I’ll manually set you up.

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In my Forecaster league (with the guys who do the magazine), keep 12 and I’m the back-to-back defending champ – but I’m off to a terrible start. Three things have hurt. One, Claude Giroux. Enough said there. Two, James Neal/Kris Letang. Enough said there. Three, I have too many good goalies. What? Yep. Never thought this would be an issue, but I have four goalies who I would rank in the Top 15 – Smith, Anderson, Bishop and Bobrovsky. And my poor decision-making as to which two to dress every week has cost me about 20 points in a pretty tight league in which first is about 50 ahead of me. So those 20 really matter. I mean, I sat Anderson when he had his best week. Ditto for Smith.

Anyway, I’m a patient man and I know I have a fabulous team. So I waited. And waited. And I’m still 11th out of 14. So beginning Saturday, I stepped up my activity in a big way – waiver bids, trade offers right/left/center. Here are the steps I’ve taken to right the ship. If you want to skip ahead to the games analysis and news, scroll down.

1. First, I shopped Bobrovsky trying desperately to land a quality winger and a good draft pick or two. It took a few rejections from about five different teams, and lots of back and forth, but I ended up trading:

Sergei Bobrovsky, Clarke MacArthur, Dan Hamhuis

For

Devan Dubnyk, Jonas Brodin, Dustin Brown, 8th round pick (13 rounds in the draft).

This move a) makes my G decision easier. Because it will be a long, long time (if ever) before I dress Dubnyk. But in the meantime, he’s the perfect No.4 G to sit on my bench because the last two years he had excellent second halves. I upgraded Hamhuis and I upgraded MacArthur. Brodin might even be a final 12 keeper, if he picks it up a bit more.

2. Second, I went to the wire. I wanted Mats Zuccarello. But I was outbid and wound up with my No.2 bid which was Tommy Wingels. Dropped Troy Brouwer.

3. Third, I shopped Elias Lindholm like crazy. Lindholm is a great prospect, but with carrying four goalies I don’t have the roster space to carry a guy for ‘next year’. The problem is, everyone in my league seemed to feel that Carolina is ruining him. I finally got a good offer for him – Weiss and a 9th rounder for Lindholm and a 13th. The problem is – I have no wingers to spare. This would short my roster. So this deal is on hold.

4. Finally, I traded Tobias Enstrom for Mats Zuccarello. Big price to pay, but I have three defensemen on my bench out of four spots. This move freed me to accept the offer noted in 3) above.

So we’ll see if this shakeup does anything. My team:

C – Barkov, Giroux, Johnson, Kopitar

W – Benn, Brown, Brunner, Gerbe, Ovechkin, St. Louis, Wingels, Zuccarello

D – Brodin, Carle, Green, Carlson, Letang, Petry

G – Bishop, Smith

Bench – Weiss, Brodie, McBain, Anderson, Dubnyk

IR – Neal

Minors – Aittokallio (take note!), Rattie, Severson

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And if one of those deals don’t work out, I’ll just say I was in a drunken stupor. That excuse is a slam-dunk!

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I didn’t expect to see this – Martin Brodeur would apparently consider waiving his no-trade clause. I’m shocked. He has a no-trade clause?

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I’m not much of a rumor-monger – I’ll leave that stuff to my friends at Spectors Hockey and MyNHLTradeRumors – but sometimes they catch my interest. Such as this one involving the Rangers and Oilers. So many reasons to like it. Not just the history between the old pals in the offices of both clubs, but also because Edmonton’s trade is so overdue. They need to move a young stud and bring in some grit. Not potential grit and not past-his-prime grit. First on the block for me would be Sam Gagner. But the hyperlinked trade above is pointing to Nail Yakupov. That works too. I’m sure the Rangers would prefer to move Michael Del Zotto, given his terrible start, but that’s not a fit. We’ll see what the two teams come up with, if anything. But Yakupov (or Hemsky) going to New York would hurt Hagelin owners.

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Jason Arnott has announced his retirement.  His third-best season was his first one – so he was untouchable in a lot of fantasy leagues (I remember trying hard to acquire him back in ’94). But after his fantasy value dwindled to ‘depth option, he had a resurgence when he topped 70 points twice in three years between 2006 and 2008 at the age of 32-34. He was the last Nashville Predators player to top the 70-point mark.

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David Desharnais was a healthy scratch for the Habs. If this doesn’t get him going, nothing will. He is in the NHL because he overcomes adversity and when he had pretty much zero chance of getting there…he made it happen through sheer willpower and clutch, timely offense. So if he doesn’t turn it around – as my poll shows he will not – then that’s it for him. I’ll give him two games after this scratch.

By the way, Lyle Richardson says he’s on the trading block.

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Cam Atkinson has just one point in his last nine games and is minus-5 in that span. Poolies are getting frustrated. I am too, but I’m not even close to giving up on him. Reasons are several:

1. Expectations for him are modest this year. I was aggressive at 53 points, but I still think 45-50 is fair. He’s on pace for about 30. Two consecutive two-point games puts him right back in the proper range.

2. Watching the games. Almost every game he is the top offensive threat for CBJ. They’re just not going in.

3. Coach’s confidence. Last night he saw over 21 minutes of ice time, nearly four minutes of PP time and over two minutes of PK time. This is a forward with 75 career games under his belt.

4. Just 75 career games under his belt. And 37 points is pretty damn good.

5. He leads the team in shots on goal. By a wide margin – 49 to the next highest at 36. Just three goals to show for it. Yet the sample size is so small that scoring on his next two shots puts him right in the above-average range.

I’m not saying “buy low”. I’m saying, if you have him hang in there. An injury would change everything, but as long as he’s healthy I have full confidence.

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Tommy Wingels has had a fabulous season so far, but there is reason to believe that he will slow down. Several reasons, actually:

1. He is seeing PP time these last seven games. Brent Burns has been out for seven games. Burns is back skating with the team.

2. The Sharks are on a roll, just like last year. That roll will end at some point.

3. He was nearly a point-per-game guy in NCAA action in his final year, but otherwise there is nothing to indicate that he is a potential 65-point player. In fact, in that final year he was outscored by teammate Andy Miele, who has yet to make his mark at the NHL level.

4. Wingels is playing with Joe Pavelski, which is a good thing. But Pavelski is on pace for 94 points. Think he gets there? Seven of Wingels’ 10 points have come with Pavelski on the ice. Per Frozen Pool:

Total Points for Tommy Wingels : 10

Str

On Ice Line Combination

Points

%Total
Points

EV

NIETO,MATTHEW – PAVELSKI,JOE – WINGELS,TOMMY

3

30%

PP

NIETO,MATTHEW – PAVELSKI,JOE – WINGELS,TOMMY

1

10%

EV

DESJARDINS,ANDREW – PAVELSKI,JOE – WINGELS,TOMMY

1

10%

EV

HAVLAT,MARTY – PAVELSKI,JOE – WINGELS,TOMMY

1

10%

SH

📢 advertisement:

COUTURE,LOGAN – WINGELS,TOMMY

1

10%

EV

MCCARTHY,JOHN – PAVELSKI,JOE – WINGELS,TOMMY

1

10%

EV

COUTURE,LOGAN – WINGELS,TOMMY

1

10%

EV

DESJARDINS,ANDREW – SHEPPARD,JAMES – WINGELS,TOMMY

1

10%

That being said, he’s a great pickup for the short term (as you see, I did it myself in the above ramble on my Forecaster league). But it’s not sustainable. Give it two more weeks before he slowly floats back and eventually finishes with around 35.

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Valeri Nichushkin has four points in his last eight games and has averaged 18:45 of ice time over the last two games. He played with Seguin and Benn last night.

If Alex Goligoski gets just one more assist, he’ll reach the one-assist mark. I don’t know what to say. I wish I could project when it ends. His healthy scratch inspired him to score two goals in four games and go plus-2 in the five games since (after starting the year minus-13). So that’s something, I guess. Desharnais owners hope for better results.

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Tom Wilson picked up his first NHL goal and his first NHL assist last night. By the time he scored, the game was already put away. That’s why he was out there on the power play. But for those rare people who did have him active – he also had 12 PIM, took four shots and was plus-1.

Alex Ovechkin returned from his minor injury to tally three points. He’s back on the Crosby hunt for sure.

If you had patience with Braden Holtby – it’s paying off. He’s won five of six and has allowed just 11 goals in those six games.

Washington/Islanders score five times in five minutes:

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Five games without a point for Josh Bailey now. The Isles are losing games because they’ve lost the secondary scoring (other than Frans Nielsen, who’s still getting it done).

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Robin Lehner finally got enough offensive support last night to earn the W. His SV% (0.943) as been stellar this year, but that was his first win of the season.

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Mark Arcobello is still stuck with the pluggers, while Sam Gagner lives the high life on quality lines. Yet Arcobello still scored his first two career NHL goals last night and has 12 points in 16 games (plus-1). Gagner is minus-6 in three games. Gagner is the better player of course, but the gap isn’t to the extent that the ice time shows and when one player is getting it done and the other player is not – it’s time to reward the guy getting it done.

Devan Dubnyk was back in the lineup and got the win. It gives him three wins in his last four decisions.

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Aleksander Barkov has zero points in his last five games. Ice time has been declining as well. But he’s playing with Fleischmann and Huberdeau so keep faith in a turnaround.

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How low can Nail Yakupov go? He’s at minus-13 now. #YakupovWatch

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Great game for Steve Mason, but the Flyers – again – couldn’t find the net. Mason stopped 36 of 38. Claude Giroux, still looking for that first goal.

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Carolina line combos last night:

Frequency

Strength

Line Combination

22.42%

EV

28 SEMIN,ALEXANDER – 12 STAAL,ERIC – 19 TLUSTY,JIRI

15.15%

EV

14 GERBE,NATHAN – 16 LINDHOLM,ELIAS – 11 STAAL,JORDAN

12.42%

EV

39 DWYER,PATRICK – 20 NASH,RILEY – 15 RUUTU,TUOMO

12.12%

EV

21 BOWMAN,DRAYSON – 18 DVORAK,RADEK – 22 MALHOTRA,MANNY

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Jonas Brodin is pointless in three since returning from injury.

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Reto Berra’s second outing, not as nice as his first. He gave up five goals on just 24 shots. So…back to Square 1?

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Did you see this ad from the NHL? Rangers vs. Bruins. Cam Neely’s line was great:

 

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UPCOMING GAMES

Apr 18 - 19:04 MIN vs SEA
Apr 18 - 20:04 WPG vs VAN
Apr 18 - 21:04 CGY vs S.J
Apr 18 - 21:04 COL vs EDM
Apr 18 - 22:04 VGK vs ANA
Apr 18 - 22:04 L.A vs CHI

Starting Goalies

Top Skater Views

  Players Team
LANE HUTSON MTL
JURAJ SLAFKOVSKY MTL
AUSTON MATTHEWS TOR
CONNOR MCDAVID EDM
SIDNEY CROSBY PIT

Top Goalie Profile Views

  Players Team
MARC-ANDRE FLEURY MIN
SEMYON VARLAMOV NYI
JET GREAVES CBJ
KAREL VEJMELKA ARI
FREDERIK ANDERSEN CAR

LINE COMBOS

  Frequency WPG Players
23.9 TYLER TOFFOLI SEAN MONAHAN NIKOLAJ EHLERS
19.0 COLE PERFETTI RASMUS KUPARI MASON APPLETON
14.7 GABRIEL VILARDI BRAD LAMBERT ALEX IAFALLO

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