April 28, 2014

Dobber Sports

2014-04-28

My Stanley Cup pick – the St. Louis Blues – are out in the first round. No shame in that, since they lost to the defending champs and in my opinion the fourth best team in the league. It does drive home the fact that you can’t put a price on experience.

With the Blues out in six – and Ryan Miller winning just two playoff games for them – I think there is very little motivation for the Blues to re-sign him this summer. Hell, as long as Jaroslav Halak was healthy, he probably would have performed better than Miller did. What do you think? Miller is not the same goalie that he once was. They didn’t lose the series because of him – nor would they have won it with Halak between the pipes. I’m just saying that when healthy Halak is a better goalie that what we’ve seen out of Miller these last three or four weeks.

Miller’s playoff numbers: 2-4, 2.70 and 0.897. And in 25 games with the Blues his save percentage hovered around 0.901. That’s a big enough sample size to give it the ol’ thumbs down.

Miller owners hit the jackpot when he was traded to St. Louis. The best defensive system in hockey, other than maybe the Kings. All he had to do was win a round and get re-signed. Now that it’s looking like he won’t – his fantasy value has plummeted. I’m sure he’ll find a starting job somewhere, but it’s not going to be as sweet as the St. Louis job would have been.

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So who do the Blues turn to? I can’t see them going for an unproven or trusting in Elliott. So that leaves Miller, Hiller, Thomas, Brodeur. Or Door No.2 – trading for one. It will be an interesting summer to say the least.

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David Backes played with a broken toe. He had a point in four games. The big bust was Patrik Berglund – no points and minus-7 in four games after returning early from his shoulder injury. Probably should have stayed out.

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Kris Versteeg was a healthy scratch for the Blackhawks. Derek Roy was back in the lineup, after being a healthy scratch, for the Blues. Roy was a minus-2 in nine minutes of action. A 37-point year and healthy scratches when it matters most. Safe to say that Roy’s quadriceps injury in late 2010 dramatically degraded his skill level. He’s barely been an NHL player since. And that’s a shame because he was a good one.

Versteeg could be in the same boat – he had a couple of different (serious) injuries a year ago and hasn’t been the same since. Versteeg still has two years left on his contract, while Roy is a UFA this summer. I don’t see Roy getting a contract – look for a training camp invite. The Hawks cannot buy out Versteeg as part of the compliance, as the team already used both of their buyouts. Great discussion on that in the forum – including a full list of which teams have two buyouts, one buyout and none – right here.

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Trevor Daley had three points for the Stars Sunday and he has five points in six playoff games now. The 30-year-old defenseman had 25 points on the season which was just shy of a career high – but he did it in 67 games, giving him a career high points-per-game average. He ended the campaign with nine points in nine games (so 14 in his last 15 overall). His power-play time topped five minutes Sunday. Sergei Gonchar has lost his PP time and Daley has picked it up. Daley was a big scorer in junior and was at one time considered a very promising offensive prospect, but sort of fell into a defense-first role. Odd that he’s coming into his own at the age of 30, but it happens. As long as Dallas does not sign an offensive rearguard in the summer – and that’s key to my point – then Daley is looking like a very good dark horse for next year. I’m sure they’ll transition Kevin Connauton, but not enough to take the luster off of what I think Daley could do.

Look at this amazing goal by Daley and tell me he doesn’t have the ability to post 40-plus points next year:

 

 

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So the Stars are eliminated in a wild one last night, in which the Ducks tied it late and won it in overtime. Each team who has tied a game late in these playoffs have gone onto win in OT.

Ray Whitney was a healthy scratch. We have probably seen his last NHL game. He tallied 1064 career points in 1330 NHL games and topped 76 points four times. His best season was 83 points in 2006-07 for Carolina when he was 34, and he had a 77-point campaign just two years ago at 39.

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Besides Daley, the big surprise for the Stars in the playoffs has to be Shawn Horcoff, who led the club with six points. It will take him until December to get six points next season.

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Alex Chiasson had just two points and was minus-7 in the playoffs. Since October 24 he managed just 28 points in 76 games and was minus-26.

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The Ducks go into the next round and it’s because their best players have been their best players – Getzlaf and Perry lead the team in points. And their dark horses have been dark horses – Perreault, Maroon and Cogliano have been solid with four points each. And their secondary scoring have provided as needed – Nick Bonino had four points. Really just Saku Koivu and Jakob Silfverberg have disappointed, and you get the sense that they’ll kick in their points when some of the other players falter.

Teemu Selanne picked up two assists and had five shots on goal, willing his team into the next round. His assists kept the Ducks in the game.

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Jonas Hiller got his job back, methinks. He’s been sitting on the bench, just being pissed off. Watching as some snot-nosed brat comes in and takes his job from him when he’s in a contract year. So when Frederik Andersen got pulled for the second time, Hiller came in and shut the door. And his team rallied around him and won. Now Hiller is about as motivated as it gets. Chip on his shoulder.

Andersen’s playoff numbers – 3.40 GAA and 0.892 SV%.

Hiller has stopped all 13 shots he’s faced.

This certainly puts a twist on what the Ducks will do in the summer. It seemed certain that they would ride Andersen and John Gibson next season and let Hiller walk.

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It’s looking more and more as though Matt Duchene will play tonight – but it will be on the fourth line and on the power play.

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Another possible – and very impactful – lineup change, this one by the Sharks. I think they start Alex Stalock. They need a win, do you think Todd McLellan cares about hockey politics at this point? Nope. And if he starts Niemi and Niemi loses – he can’t expect Stalock to go in for Game 7 and pull one out of his ass. No way. Not a rookie with minimal NHL experience. If you’re going to play him, you put him in Game 6 where there isn’t the ‘do or die’ pressure. So my hunch is that Stalock gets in. And if he gets in and wins, they ride him to the Cup Final.

And with Niemi’s final year of his contract coming in 2014-15, I can see the Sharks re-signing Stalock and start 55% of next year’s games.

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The other series was the Rangers taking a 3-2 series lead on the Flyers. It looks like the Rangers will play the Penguins in the second around, assuming they take this (which is not a done deal by any stretch). But I just get the sense that this team is sneaky good and that they could get to the final four. Martin St. Louis has finally found his comfort zone and is leading the team with six points in five games.

Brad Richards actually has five in five, and is tied with Nash for the team lead in shots on goal with 23. There’s still some life (and I still don’t want him in any of my keeper leagues)…

So now that the big names are finally producing, the leaders of the team throughout the regular season – Mats Zuccarello and Derick Brassard – are taking a back seat. That’s the downside of getting a really nice dark horse on your keeper league team one year – he doesn’t have the big name or the big contract, so it’s not assured that he’ll repeat what he did next season. After all, the ‘name’ players will still get all the ice time and PP time.

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