June 26, 2014

steve laidlaw

2014-06-26

Make sure you pick up the 2014 Dobber Prospects Report. It’s exactly the tool you need for your keeper league.

 

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With draft time swiftly approaching I think it's worth taking a look at "NHLe", a metric for which Byron Bader at NHL Numbers makes a case for:


NHLe is an equivalency formula used by some in the hockey analytics community.  It's a method of standardizing scoring across various major and junior leagues.  Standardized scoring gives an idea of how players, generally younger prospects, perform at the NHL level. Some argue its merit as a valuable metric in assessing future performance.  The following provides a framework of how it can be used as a possible drafting qualifier.

 

There's a whole lot of math and explanations for why these models are good but let me get to the punch line:


This year, there’s five players (North American skaters anyways) that fit the “can’t miss” 35+ NHLe mold in the draft class. They are: Sam Reinhart (43.1), Leon Draisaitl (40.4), Sam Bennett (39.3), Nikolaj Ehlers (39.3), Robert Fabbri (36.9). Dal Colle (34.9) is right there as well. Over-ager Louick Marcotte (35.5) also fits the bill but he’s two years older than the rest of the crop.  He could be worth a late-round flier though. I bet we hear a lot about all of these guys in the coming years and they turn into very productive players for their respective teams.

 

Now those are the big names we've all been talking about anyway but you can be pretty confident selecting any one of those guys based on the NHLe metric.

 

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A few signings to talk about from yesterday…

 

Marian Gaborik re-upped with the Kings for seven years and $34.1 million. Fantastic deal for the Kings. The term is a bit ridiculous for a player his age and given his injuries but the AAV is splendid. Even with his injuries factored in, Gaborik just became a risk worth taking in cap leagues.

 

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The Kings also signed defenseman Matt Greene for four years and $10 million. This is much ado about nothing on the fantasy side of things. Pretty reasonable deal if you ask me.

 

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Ryan Callahan re-signed in Tampa Bay for six years $34.8 million. This is pretty much what was expected considering his UFA status. It's basically impossible to sign a big-name UFA without over-paying. So considering the context, this deal isn't horrible, even though Callahan is likely on the downside of his career.

 

I don't besmirch his poor playoff performance. He only got to play four games, anyone can go on a bad run in a sample that small. Plus, you may not recall but Callahan did in fact have a goal disallowed on a really miserable goaltender interference penalty. So he actually did put something on the board in the playoffs. It just got wiped off. I'd look for him to be reasonably productive in Tampa.

 

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