Ramblings: Gostisbehere; and key goalie situations (Dec.16)

Dobber

2015-12-16

Rambling Gostisbehere, the goalie situations in PIT and ARI and how you should tackle them. And of course much more …

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Patrick Kane’s streak ends at 26! That is all.

Now that things are back to normal with Kane and he truly is a mere mortal, it’s time to pull back and take a look at Artemi Panarin and Artem Anisimov. Let’s face it, Kane is a great player but he’s not ‘that’ great. He could win a scoring title, maybe, if healthy…but not by ‘that’ much. So let’s consider him what we thought of him in the summer – a guy who will finish around fifth in scoring with some hot stretches and some cold stretches. And let’s face it, the streak was running on fumes for the past two weeks. Cheesy second assists on empty-net goals, magical third assists that turned into a second assist the other day, etc. A streak like this is good for the league’s image, so naturally some leeway will be given on awarding points (and rightfully so, I absolutely agree with that). But that leeway is gone now. Kane has 50 games left and let’s assume 50 points. So his paces slows from 1.44 per game to 1.00 per game and he finishes with 96 points. What does this mean for Panarin and Anisimov, his linemates?

In the case of Anisimov, he’s only on pace for 46 points and is pointless in his last six. He’s no longer what we would consider “overachieving” so to me it’s status quo. The 46 points sound about right.

In the case of Panarin, he’s on pace for 74 points. I think he stays on the Kane line through thick and thin. Sure, there may be the odd one- or two-game “sampling” on different lines, but for the most part he’s there to stay. So if Kane’s production drops by 30%, we should probably take Panarin’s down by the same amount.  So instead of 45 points going forward, make it 32 points. That would finish him with 61 on the campaign.

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Marc-Andre Fleury is out for one to two weeks with concussion symptoms and Mike Smith is out for 10 weeks after surgery to a core muscle injury. I’ve seen a lot of chatter about Anders Lindback this, and Matt Murray that, blah blah blah blah.

Wrong.

First of all, in the case of Fleury, the guy is only out for one to two weeks. Knowing him, it’s closer to one. So he’s probably back after the Christmas break, which means we’re talking about four games. Jeff Zatkoff is playing at least two of those games. So should you really be scrambling for Murray? For one, maybe two games? In keeper leagues, he should already be owned. But in one-year leagues he’s not the answer over Zatkoff. In fact, neither goaltender is the answer. Who is? More on this below as meander my way to my point.

In the case of Smith…well, Anders Lindback sucks. He’s just horrible. I’d rather claim an usher and activate him as my G. No, the guy you want to get is Louis Domingue, a promising young prospect whom I’ve mentioned several times before – and for this very circumstance. Lindback will start the next game and probably the one after that. But at some point, his suckiness will overwhelm and Domingue will get his start. And when he gets one start, the second one will follow. And the third. He’ll impress. Of course, the Coyotes are not a good team so temper expectations based on the team itself. But considering the weak team, Domingue will do well.

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Still with goalies, Joonas Korpisalo got his second straight start. It was in back-to-back games, too. Really dumb coaching move there. Two career NHL starts on back-to-back evenings? So yeah, Korpisalo got chased after two periods (four goals allowed on 27 shots).

Ryan Johansen caught another case of Tortorellitis. Benched in the third period. Not seen again after the 15:25 point of the second period. Until now, I would have bet against a trade. But now I can’t see him staying. Not even three full games without a point and he gets benched? I know it’s about more than just offense, and I didn’t see the game. And I don’t have a coach’s eye. But you play your player to their strengths you don’t try to mold them into a player you would prefer.

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My daily check-in on the Devils’ defensemen – Moore and Schlemko again the top PP pairing. Again pointless. Severson/Larsson combine for 16 seconds of PP time. Eric Gelinas a healthy scratch. But the Devils won so…

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Jaromir Jagr missed Tuesday’s game with the flu, but that didn’t stop Aleksander Barkov from having a three-point game. Brandon Pirri took Jagr’s spot. Dave Bolland was sent to the minors for “conditioning”, so the Florida lines looked like this:

#1           28.7%    BARKOV,ALEKSANDER – HUBERDEAU,JONATHAN – PIRRI,BRANDON

#2           27.6%    JOKINEN,JUSSI – SMITH,REILLY – TROCHECK,VINCENT

#3           18.2%    GRIMALDI,ROCCO – HOWDEN,QUINTON – SHAW,LOGAN

#4           11%        BRICKLEY,CONNOR – KNIGHT,CORBAN – THORNTON,SHAWN

 

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After three points in 14 games, Aaron Ekblad has 12 points in his last 17.

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John Tavares has three points in his last 10 games. Those in one-year leagues would have a pretty easy time acquiring him. I suggest doing so. Kick some tires. His numbers are going to bounce back in a big way.

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Count on Mats Zuccarello’s hot/cold ways. He has five points in his last three games after he had just one point in nine games. He started the year with 21 points in 20 games.

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Cam Talbot had a real strong game Monday when he stopped 47 of 49 for an impressive win. Anders Nilsson finally had a “so-so” game Tuesday and lost. This, after winning six of seven. This ain’t much – Nilsson is still the guy. But it’s the first time all season that a bounce has gone Talbot’s way. Or more specifically, the way of Talbot’s owners (of which I am one). So hold onto that shred of hope, and pray he builds on it. Unless you own Nilsson, in which case – go to hell!

I’m kidding , of course. I just hate being wrong. So when I am wrong, as is the case with Edmonton goaltending, I hope that the situation fixes itself over time.

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Jordan Eberle is back on his horse now. He has eight points in his last six games. Last night’s line combos:

#1           25.3%    DRAISAITL,LEON – HALL,TAYLOR – PURCELL,EDWARD

#2           17.2%    EBERLE,JORDAN – KLINKHAMMER,ROBERT – NUGENT-HOPKINS,RYAN

#3           15.6%    HENDRICKS,MATT – KORPIKOSKI,LAURI – LETESTU,MARK

#4           5.4%      EBERLE,JORDAN – GAZDIC,LUKE – NUGENT-HOPKINS,RYAN

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Jeff Skinner was on fire before. He’s gone beyond that now. With the hat trick last night – his second hat trick in three games – he has 10 points in six. Before that, he had 38 points in 102 games. That’s how long things have been terrible for him. The one situation that this reminds me of the most is that of Patrice Bergeron. Bergeron put up big numbers before suffering a concussion. Upon his return, he was a shadow of his former self offensively before eventually finding his form again. Though he never did get back to where he once was, until this season. However Bergeron was more proven, put up bigger points, and when he returned his reduced production didn’t last nearly as long as Skinner’s.

Can we say Skinner is “back” after six games? Well, it’s promising that he has 21 shots in that span (3.5/game). He averaged 3.0/game in the prior 102. I think he’s back. But what does “back” really mean? First of all, he’s still an injury risk. And these days, even a healthy season for him means 75 games. His career best is 0.77 points-per-game and next is 0.76. So you’re looking at a 55- to 60-point pace going forward. So 34 points for a total of 51 at season’s end.

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Shayne Gostisbehere is looking like every bit the Flyers’ savior. The John Klingberg to Giroux’s and Voracek’s Benn/Seguin. Yes he’s young and yes he’ll have his slow times, but he scored his third OT goal last night and he’s only played 15 games. Six of his 11 points have come on the power play. The Flyers are 8-4-3 with him in the lineup.

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Interesting – Carolina prospect Phillip Di Giuseppe has points in four straight and he has five points in six games on the season. Learn more about him here. I had him ranked 234 on my Fantasy Prospects List, due to his modest upside (low 60s). But I’ll be adjusting him upward for next month.

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Jonathan Bernier was back between the pipes for the Leafs after posting back-to-back-to-back shutouts in the AHL. He finally got that “give up a goal on the first shot” monkey off his back. Nope, he didn’t give up a goal until the second shot. Overall he stopped just 22 of 27 and is still looking for his first win and it’s now the latter half of December.

The Lightning placed Tyler Johnson on IR and they still have Jonathan Drouin and Ondrej Palat sidelined.

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You may have noticed that last Friday we put out our first newsletter. Not my usual “Announcements” one. But the Fantasy Hockey Weekly. You can sign up for either of these two newsletters (or unsubscribe) by going here. Right now, we list four articles from the week that are “must reads”, as well as list the Top 5 profiles visited in the past week on Frozen Pool, as well as DobberProspects. That’s a cool little thing we add and it’s great for indicating to you who the average fantasy owner is looking up. Any more suggestions?

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Goalie Post has a great new feature. Now all the goalie stats are right there on the Goalie Grid to help you with your research, as well as a hyperlink to the goalie’s Frozen Pool player profile. So you get your starting goalies and all your last-minute research right there for you.

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I'm updating my Band-Aid Boys list and need your help. Make your voice heard and vote here.

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And finally – Office Pools. The next trade window has opened in the DobberHockey league. Get on it! Trade window lasts until January 15 and you can make four moves. My team is doing so poorly that I need about 10 moves per trade window. Instead, I have to keep injured players active (McDavid) and hope for other players to turn it around (Andersen) or get called up (D. Pouliot) while I use my moves to address "serious" issues. And please visit our sponsors:

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6 Comments

  1. Cory 2015-12-16 at 11:49

    I don't share your confidence that Domingue will impress.  Based on his stats, he looks like a middling prospect.  Maybe he'll do well, but I think it's just as likely that he looks out of his league (which, he very well may be).

    • Dobber Sports 2015-12-16 at 12:41

      Oh, he’s no Hellebuyck by any stretch. But I have a knack for finding “situations” that are perfect. I sourced out Cory Crawford for you readers years ago. And Jimmy Howard. Not because they were good. Far from it. They were middling prospects in a perfect situation. I identified Domingue late last spring as in the perfect spot, and in the Guide I mentioned him as one to watch if Smith were to get hurt. With goalies, it’s as much about opportunity and coaching as it is talent.

      Example of mostly talent, but some opportunity and coaching advantage too: Carey Price

      Example of mostly coaching, but some opportunity and talent too: Braden Holtby

      Example of mostly opportunity, (but some of the other two factors): Cory Crawford.

      Domingue falls under the third category, but also the second one.

  2. Jim Phair 2015-12-16 at 12:00

    this about Kane's streak "A streak like this is good for the league’s image, so naturally some leeway will be given on awarding points"

    Specifically, your statement: "(and rightfully so, I absolutely agree with that)" 

    How can you possibly agree with any fudging at all with awarding points (G, A) in a the most important hockey league on the planet? Give leeway because its good for the league's image and media attention? I'd propose integrity is much more important. 

     

    • Dobber Sports 2015-12-16 at 12:36

      If it’s just pushing the grey area in one direction just a little bit to keep a streak going, then sure. Example – if a ref isn’t sure if the other team touched the puck just a little and the decision makes a difference as to whether or not Player X gets that second assist. If it’s during a well-publicized streak, then the right thing to do is to err on the side of the player getting that assist.

    • Cory 2015-12-16 at 12:54

      I would compare it to a pitcher who's pitching a no-hitter in the sixth or seventh inning.  If there's a play that's kind of a toss up between scoring it a hit and scoring it an error, I think the scales might just tip a bit more in one direction, based on circumstances. As a scorekeeper, you don't want to be the one who ended the 'streak', or whatever it is, when maybe you're making the wrong call.

  3. philip Kamhi 2015-12-16 at 12:18

    Phillip Di Giuseppe is playing well, and I believe he is a talented prospect.  That said, please keep in mind his PDO (1155), 5on5 SH% (25), and SH% (28.6). He is benefitting from red hot Skinner (and Rask), and unsustainable luck.

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