Eastern Conference Real or Imagined: Forwards (Part Two)

Eric Daoust

2015-12-22

Why you want to buy Datsyuk and stock reports on other Eastern Conference forwards.

After covering forwards from Boston to Columbus last week, the “Real or Imagined” series continues with the focus on forwards from Detroit to New Jersey. Forwards will be given a recommendation to buy, sell, hold or waive based on a number of factors and there will be additional comments about players of interest. First, what they have done so far will be taken into account along with how things might play out in the coming months, both statistically and in terms of opportunity. But more importantly, the analysis will put everything in the context of each player’s value in one-year fantasy leagues with a primary focus on points-only settings but with an eye on the world of multi-category formats.

Note: There are instances where the line between “hold” and “waive” can be blurry. Sometimes forwards that fall short in offensive production offer multi-category appeal. In those cases they will get a “hold” recommendation.

Detroit

Player

GP

G

A

SOG

PPP

PPTOI

TOI

SH%

5on5SH%

Status

Henrik Zetterberg

33

6

20

75

11

3:11

19:25

8.0

8.9

HOLD

Dylan Larkin

33

12

11

94

1

2:03

16:56

12.8

11.8

HOLD

Tomas Tatar

33

11

11

77

7

2:29

15:07

14.3

8.7

HOLD

Gustav Nyquist

33

12

9

78

8

3:00

15:59

15.4

6.7

HOLD

Justin Abdelkader

33

11

8

59

6

2:50

17:40

18.6

8.5

SELL

Teemu Pulkkinen

24

6

5

45

3

1:36

12:25

13.3

6.5

HOLD

Pavel Datsyuk

18

3

7

48

1

2:37

19:30

6.3

7.2

BUY

Brad Richards

20

3

5

58

2

2:39

15:06

5.2

8.7

HOLD

Darren Helm

29

3

5

59

0

0:34

14:40

5.1

5.7

HOLD

Riley Sheahan

33

3

4

50

0

1:31

15:41

6.0

5.0

SELL

Tomas Jurco

12

1

1

12

0

0:22

9:00

8.3

8.3

WAIVE

 

 

Dylan Larkin – Sure, Larkin has some numbers that are high and due for regression, most notably his five-on-five on-ice shooting percentage. However, he is also due to cash in a few times on the power play as he has only found the score sheet once with the man-advantage. Whatever decline in production he might experience down the stretch should not be significant so there is no real point trying to sell high. After all, his true value lies in keeper leagues.

Justin Abdelkader – Abdelkader has been solid as the Red Wings’ gritty forward complimenting their skilled players.  Unfortunately, his current goal-scoring rate is a red flag as his shooting percentage is up over 18 percent. Look for him to take a hit in this area and fall closer to the 40-point range when it is all said and done.

Pavel Datsyuk – Statistically, it is pretty easy to see Datsyuk is capable of much more than he has provided to date. His age makes him even more of a buy-low candidate. Too often owners are quick to write off veterans after any sign of trouble and it does not take much for a player’s perceived value to fall well below his true value. A declining Datsyuk is still very fantasy-relevant when healthy.

Florida

Player

GP

G

A

SOG

PPP

PPTOI

TOI

SH%

5on5SH%

Status

Jaromir Jagr

31

10

14

58

7

2:34

16:48

17.2

9.5

SELL

Jussi Jokinen

34

7

16

65

5

2:31

17:42

10.8

9.1

HOLD

Vincent Trocheck

34

10

11

60

8

2:29

16:30

16.7

8.6

SELL

Jonathan Huberdeau

34

4

17

75

7

2:35

18:33

5.3

7.8

BUY

Reilly Smith

34

11

8

67

5

2:24

18:00

16.4

7.6

SELL

Aleksander Barkov

24

7

11

65

6

2:41

19:31

10.8

7.5

HOLD

Brandon Pirri

34

7

11

82

7

2:19

15:14

8.5

6.0

HOLD

Nick Bjugstad

23

7

5

55

5

2:39

17:02

12.7

9.3

HOLD

Connor Brickley

21

1

4

12

0

0:09

8:51

8.3

7.8

WAIVE

Quinton Howden

29

3

2

25

0

0:08

10:50

12.0

8.5

WAIVE

Dave Bolland

25

1

4

26

3

0:47

14:06

3.8

6.4

BUY

 

 

Jaromir Jagr – At 43, Jagr has to be considered a risk each year especially in the second half. Besides the age factor, he also has a very high shooting percentage considering he has been hanging around 10 percent in each of the last two years. He is also not getting top-line minutes. Jagr might be difficult to sell but if someone buys into his name value then try to acquire an underachiever who is set to see better days.

Jonathan Huberdeau – There were high hopes for Huberdeau heading into this season after a big second half last year. To date, he is on pace for just 50 points, mainly due to a low shooting percentage. Look for Huberdeau to get back on track in the near future as he is getting 2.2 shots per game and is getting top-line minutes.  

Aleksander Barkov – Barkov has had a strong year to date with 18 points through 24 games. Amazingly, he is doing so while not having any red flags among his numbers. This has the makings of a breakout year. If you own him then he is a must-hold. If his owner in your league is clueless enough to not believe in Barkov then by all means grab him.

Dave Bolland – Bolland has been a massive disappointment since signing in Florida and should not be considered in points-only leagues. That said, he still provides good peripherals and could be a nice depth center in the right deep-league format. Additionally, there is room for a bit more offense from him. Not much, but it all adds up in multi-category leagues.

Montreal

Player

GP

G

A

SOG

PPP

PPTOI

TOI

SH%

5on5SH%

Status

Tomas Plekanec

34

7

20

75

📢 advertisement:

9

2:57

18:53

9.3

7.2

HOLD

Max Pacioretty

34

14

12

139

7

3:14

18:49

10.1

5.8

HOLD

Alex Galchenyuk

34

7

14

66

7

2:27

14:39

10.6

7.9

HOLD

Brendan Gallagher

22

9

10

70

5

2:49

16:10

12.9

6.8

SELL

Dale Weise

34

10

8

80

5

1:37

14:35

12.5

8.8

SELL

David Desharnais

34

7

11

47

4

2:13

15:41

14.9

8.3

HOLD

Tomas Fleischmann

34

8

9

65

1

0:47

15:50

12.3

8.6

HOLD

Lars Eller

34

7

4

56

1

0:46

14:17

12.5

7.5

HOLD

Torrey Mitchell

23

5

5

25

0

0:06

12:04

20.0

6.0

SELL

Brian Flynn

34

4

5

48

0

0:06

11:54

8.3

7.8

WAIVE

Devante Smith-Pelly

26

3

5

30

0

0:08

11:40

10.0

8.3

WAIVE

Paul Byron

22

5

2

16

0

0:04

13:00

31.3

3.7

WAIVE

Sven Andrighetto

12

4

0

15

0

0:27

11:47

26.7

10.9

BUY

 

 

Brendan Gallagher – Gallager’s numbers look great but they were obtained before the Canadiens came back down to earth. Plus, he has historically not been a great point-producer. While he will remain a good producer in all formats upon his return, do not expect him to stay in the point-per-game range. Being an important player on a team that receives a lot of coverage might help his value on the trade market.

Dale Weise – The peak of Weise’s sell-high window has obviously passed already but there could still be time to cash out once he gets going again. He is getting more ice time than in past years and should eclipse his career-high of 29 points. But with 18 already in the bank, his production down the stretch would be quite mediocre even if he was to reach 35 points.

Sven Andrighetto – Andrighetto gets the “buy” label as more of a gamble than a sure thing. The fact he has been scratched the last two games does not help matters but he has had success this year with the Canadiens and the team desperately needs offense. Scoop him up if he can get back in the lineup and put a few points on the board. It could be enough to carry him to being a decent depth option in deep leagues for the second half.

New Jersey

Player

GP

G

A

SOG

PPP

PPTOI

TOI

SH%

5on5SH%

Status

Mike Cammalleri

34

12

20

95

9

3:09

19:41

12.6

12.2

SELL

Lee Stempniak

34

8

18

71

9

2:46

19:25

11.3

10.7

HOLD

Kyle Palmieri

34

13

12

84

12

2:25

16:34

15.5

7.1

SELL

Adam Henrique

32

13

11

68

3

2:54

20:04

19.1

12.1

SELL

Travis Zajac

26

6

9

39

6

2:24

20:08

15.4

6.5

SELL

Jordin Tootoo

33

2

4

43

5

2:00

12:58

4.7

0.7

BUY

Sergey Kalinin

32

4

2

32

3

1:28

12:45

12.5

4.5

WAIVE

Jacob Josefson

34

1

5

48

4

2:22

15:38

2.1

2.1

BUY

Patrik Elias

13

1

4

17

2

3:25

15:39

5.9

7.6

HOLD

Jiri Tlusty

22

2

2

28

2

1:04

13:52

7.1

3.6

WAIVE

Bobby Farnham

19

3

1

17

0

0:07

8:29

17.6

6.7

WAIVE

Stefan Matteau

13

1

0

16

0

0:37

9:15

6.3

2.2

WAIVE

 

 

Mike Cammalleri – The Devils have a few players who have benefited from luck but none more than Cammalleri. His on-ice five-on-five shooting percentage is very high and due for a drop. Not to mention, he has missed a lot of time over the years with injuries. He should remain the Devils’ best offensive player down the stretch but not at the point-per-game level.

Kyle Palmieri – Palmieri is in the midst of a breakout season as his 25 points are just six shy of his personal-best. However, continuing to produce at this clip will be very difficult. Not only is his shooting percentage very high, he is also relying very heavily on the power play for points. Nearly half of his output has come on the man advantage. With power plays usually going through stretches of hot and cold play, any prolonged drought would severely impact Palmieri.

Jordin Tootoo – Tootoo has been having a remarkable year from a fantasy hockey perspective. Not only is he doing well in peripheral categories, he is also a regular on the power play where he has scored five of his six points. In fact, his personal shooting percentage and on-ice five-on-five shooting percentage are both amazingly low at this point meaning he is capable of producing a few extra points. Do not consider him in points-only and be wary if your league counts plus/minus (Tootoo is league-worst minus-17) but in most multi-category settings he is a must-add for across-the-board production.

Jacob Josefson – To be clear, Josefson has proved this year he is not worth of consideration in points-only or any other offense-heavy format. Even if his percentages were normal it would not be enough to make him fantasy-relevant. Meanwhile, in multi-category leagues he has value provided the league has a lot of categories and includes faceoff wins. Chances are he can be had for cheap and could serve as a decent depth option in the second half.

*

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