This week's Frozen Pool Forensics Takes Its Final Look At Bounce Back Candidates.

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After some popular demand we’re back for one final installment of Frozen Pool Forensics’ Bounce Back Candidates. This week, we’ll take a look at a handful of players due for a return to former glory or perhaps take a step back in the right direction after a stumble or stagnating season.

Instead of discussing why they may not rebound, we’ll look closer at why they should. You can just consider the opposite of why they will bounce back as your explanation of why they may not. Got it? Good.

First up…

Eric Staal

Average point-per-game output the last three seasons: 0.65

The former second overall pick from arguably the greatest draft class of all-time has fallen on hard times. As one of the very few players to record a 100-point season in recent memory, Staal has seen his point-per-game output drop in each of the last three seasons, culminating with 13 goals and just 39 points in 83, that’s right, 83, games during the 2015-16 season.

What Went Wrong in 2015-16?

Staal was tasked with trying to prop up a forward group that lacked much punch. At age 31, he was also shuffled around the lineup for the first time in his career, spending a good deal of time on the wing, which was foreign and obviously not a great fit for the natural power center.

His 2.4 shots per game were over half a shot less than he’s been accustomed to, and his conversion rate took a big dip as well. Over the previous three seasons (2012-2015), Staal scored on 10.1 percent of his shots, last season he converted on just 6.5 percent.

Carolina’s 24^th ranked power play didn’t help matters either, as Staal recorded a career-low seven points with the man-advantage.

NHL Stats – Last 5 Years

SEASON	GP	G	A	P	PntPG	+/-	PIM	Shots	SH%	HITS	PPG	PPP	SHG	BLKS	FOW	FO%	PPTOI	%PP	%SH	TOI/G	%TOI
2015-2016	83	13	26	39	0.47	-2	34	199	6.5	74	1	7	0	33	446	53.0	02:35	51.7	7.7	18:33	30.6
2014-2015	77	23	31	54	0.70	-13	41	244	9.4	65	7	17	0	27	343	51.3	02:36	52.9	2.7	18:51	31.0
2013-2014	79	21	40	61	0.77	-13	74	230	9.1	67	1	12	2	28	754	52.7	03:20	59.6	18.3	20:17	33.4
2012-2013	48	18	35	53	1.10	7	54	152	11.8	35	3	9	1	24	527	52.0	03:33	63.2	23.4	21:00	34.8
2011-2012	82	24	46	70	0.85	-20	48	262	9.2	48	7	23	3	35	882	52.5	03:38	62.4	29.9	21:33	35.4
Average	82	22	40	62	0.75	-9	56	242	9.1	64	4	15	1	33	656	52.4	03:07	57.8	16.8	19:58	32.9

Why He’ll Bounce Back

A new team, a new coach, and a new lease on life.

The eldest of the Staal brothers left the only franchise he’s ever known and moved to the hockey hot-bed of Minnesota by signing a three-year pact worth just 3.5 million annually. There he will be joining new bench boss, Bruce Boudreau who brings a notoriously offensive-minded scheme to his teams.

When asked about Staal on a radio hit earlier this month, Boudreau was quick to explain why he believes the soon-to-be 32-year-old will be successful. He will be given an opportunity to centre the team’s top line next to Zach Parise and Charlie Coyle, and feels the new environment should excite, and energize the former NHL All-Star.

Seeing ample time with the man-advantage next to Parise and witnessing his shot rates and conversion percentages return to even his post-peak averages will go a long way in seeing Staal record 60 or more points for the ninth time in his career.

Clarke MacArthur

Average point-per-game output the last three seasons: 0.61 (Stats taken from 2012-13 to 2014-15 seasons.)

MacArthur has always been a bit of a forgotten entity. Another member of that illustrious 2003 draft class, the former Sabres’ third round pick has bounce around a bit in his career. He always seems at home as a complimentary winger in a team’s top-six. There, he uses his mix of skill and fantastic two-way play to produce at both ends of the rink. However, health has become a very concerning issue with the 31-year-old

What Went Wrong in 2015-16?

I guess this should be titled What Went Right? MacArthur missed all but four contests last season when attempting to play through a concussion suffered during the preseason, a mere bump from Blue Jacket’s Brandon Saad produced another, and brought forth long-term mental effects.

MacArthur has been cleared by the medical staff and has been training hard to return this fall and once again stabilize the Senators top-six. The true indicator of his success will first be measured in games played. Can MacArthur shake the rust of an entire year off and return to the high-level of stress that NHL hockey puts on the body and mind, and keep his post-concussion symptoms away?

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Advanced Stats

Year	PDO	5 on 5 SH%	Off. Zone Start %
2015-16	941	5.88	56.52
2014-15	1011	8.44	48.86
2013-14	1022	8.57	49.1
2012-13	1021	9.69	45.7
2011-12	1019	9.52	53.11
2010-11	1020	9.44	48.22

Why He’ll Bounce Back

Since coming to Ottawa in 2013, the Saskatchewan native has scored 40 goals and 92 points in 141 games. He takes about two shots per contest and has converted on 13.3 percent of those shots over the past five seasons. His Individual Points Percentage (IPP) of 70-percent while a Senator is representative of his value to his line mates while on the ice, and puts him squarely among the NHL’s top 150 forwards in that regard.

MacArthur is going to be lining up next to either Kyle Turris or newly acquired, Derick Brassard with Bobby Ryan flanking the right side. Ottawa may have some holes in their lineup but their top six forward group is full of scoring potential and with Erik Karlsson on the ice for 30 minutes a night, there will be enough points to go around.

As far as value goes, you likely won’t a find a better option than MacArthur. His ADP will likely be microscopically-low after the missed season and if he can stay healthy and get up to speed quickly, a return to the 50-point range is quite attainable. With a cap hit of 4.65 million for the next four seasons, the Senators will surely give him every opportunity to get back into a scoring role.

Ryan Strome

Average point-per-game output the last three seasons: 0.5

Taken fifth overall in 2011, The Islanders have taken their time with Strome. He was sent back to junior for his full four seasons, spent a year ripping up the AHL to the tune of 49 points in 37 games back in 2013-14 before finally posting 50 points in 81 games for New York in 2014-15. Expected to take the next step offensively, unfortunately, 2015-16 was a big step back for the talented forward.

What Went Wrong in 2015-16?

After struggling to earn the trust of coach Jack Capuano early on, questions around his defensive responsibility and work ethic swirled. The result was a surprise re-assignment back to Bridgeport for a couple weeks as the organization hoped the demotion would act as a wake-up call.

Strome managed just 23 points in 59 games upon being recalled in late November, but saw limited action, receiving 15:39 minutes on average and just 1:28 with the man advantage – about 40 seconds fewer than the year previous.

His shooting percentage dipped by three percent, as did his shots per game. Despite seeing far more starts in the offensive zone, his five-on-five shooting percentage dropped down to under eight percent from a high of 10.34 in 2014-15.

Strome ended up being a healthy scratch in three of his team’s 11 playoff contests, but did mange four points, all at even strength while seeing just 13:49 per contest.

Why He’ll Bounce Back

The Islanders cleaned house a bit this offseason, letting Kyle Okposo and Frans Nielsen walk away as unrestricted free agents. Those holes in the top-six will offer a new found opportunity for Strome. It is expected that newly-signed Andrew Ladd and P.A. Parenteau will get the first opportunities to flank franchise centre, John Tavares, but Strome could easily find himself on

Tavares’ right side at some point in 2016-17 as he was his most common line mate last season.

Freq	Line Combination
28.6%	GRABOVSKI,MIKHAIL – STROME,RYAN – TAVARES,JOHN
19.1%	BAILEY,JOSH – STROME,RYAN – TAVARES,JOHN
18.6%	LEE,ANDERS – STROME,RYAN – TAVARES,JOHN
17.1%	GRABOVSKI,MIKHAIL – KULEMIN,NIKOLAY – STROME,RYAN
16.6%	NELSON,BROCK – STROME,RYAN – TAVARES,JOHN

The other opportunity will be for Strome to center the second line. In order to hold that spot, he’ll have to improve on his career face off winning percentage of 44.8.

As mentioned by Michael Clifford in a Ramblings about a week ago, there is an opening on that top power play unit as well, and the sublime distribution skills of Strome could be a nice boon coming from the off-side half wall.

Things could go very right for the fourth year pro, and he could end up back in the 50-point area. However, if he cannot earn the trust of his coaching staff, his opportunities will become limited and his end result may be similar to that of 2015-16.

There is still plenty of skill and potential in the recently-turned 23-year-old, but of all the players discussed thus far, a bounce-back for him is truly needed.

Steve Mason

Average save percentage the last three seasons: 0.921

Here is a goaltender who knows all about peaks and valleys. Drafted in the third round back in 2006 while playing as the back up for the London Knights, Mason burst onto the NHL scene, starting 61 games, winning 33 of them and recording 10 shutouts en route to being named Rookie of the Year as a 20-year-old. Fast forward eight seasons and Mason has swapped teams, produced a top three save percentage finish and lost his starting gig to Michal Neuvirth.

NHL Stats – Last 5 Years

SEASON	GP	Win	L	OTL	SO	GA	SHA	GAA	SV%
2015-2016	54	23	19	10	4	132	1602	2.51	0.918
2014-2015	51	18	17	11	3	107	1485	2.23	0.928
2013-2014	61	33	18	7	4	145	1751	2.50	0.917
2012-2013	20	7	8	1	0	47	561	2.59	0.916
2011-2012	46	16	26	3	1	143	1355	3.39	0.894
Average	46	19	18	6	2	115	1351	2.62	0.915

What Went Wrong in 2015-16?

Consistency. The Flyers’ goal keeper just could not put together a solid roll of games in 2015-16. His final save percentage of .918 was respectable, but a significant drop from the .928 he posted the season before. He was also diagnosed with a case of the “soft goal syndrome,” giving up inopportune goals that he and his team mates would surely like back. None more back breaking than the 100-footer he gave up in game two of the Capitals-Flyers first round matchup.

Mason ended up losing his crease for long stretches of time last season, eventually ceding the net the end the Flyers’ playoff hopes after posting a 0-3 record with a 4.09 goals against average and 0.852 save percentage.

Why He’ll Bounce Back

Well for one thing, his bank account will be a motivator. Mason is heading into the final year of his contract. He’ll earn 4.1 million next season and at just 28 years of age, will be a very sought after commodity if he can find a consistent performance throughout the entirety of the season.

Another factor trending in his direction is that Philadelphia appears to be building the right way. Their defense, which allowed 2.56 goals/game still has some blemishes, but top prospect, Ivan Provorov is coming to camp ready to start his NHL-career, and the pipeline has a wealth of other talented defensemen. On top of that, the Flyers should be back in a position to fight for a playoff spot and will offer a solid amount of run support for the Oakville, Ontario native.

Bounce-Back Candidates: Part One

Bounce-Back Candidates: Part Two

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Thanks for reading and feel free to follow me on Twitter @CrazyJoeDavola3 where I’ve suddenly become an expert in obscure Summer Olympic sports.

12 Comments

puckman 2016-08-19 at 11:45Log in to Reply

for Part 4, how about Turris??? He started last season well before he got injured and decided to play through it, with miserable results… And now with Brassard on board, I think Kyle will benefit from playing second-line, not having to face the likes of Crosby’s, Stamkos (yet will face the Malkins and Johnsons ;) ) Bounce back. Honorable mention to H. Sedin as well, he will back to his usual J.Thornton kinda like production. 15goals and over 50A
- Cam Robinson 2016-08-19 at 14:14Log in to Reply
  
  Turris is another nice example of a potential bounce back guy. I think he’ll do well enough next season; somewhere in the 50-55 point range.
  
  Hank Sedin is going to have a bit of an increase as well, but I don’t think we’re going to see him bounce too much higher than the numbers he’s posted the last campaign. He’s still a fantastic player, but the Canucks’ lack any offense from the back end and that’s a main contributor to creating goals. low-60’s is doable for sure, but I think he’ll live in the 55-65 point range from here on out.
james 2016-08-19 at 13:27Log in to Reply

I just don’t see how adding Ladd, Parenteau and Chimera (all total downgrades) AND adding more pressure to Strome and Lee is a recipe for anything but losing. I predict the same old Islanders where they shake up the top 3 lines every 3-4 games.
- isle b. 2016-08-19 at 14:13Log in to Reply
  
  Ladd, on balance, is an upgrade over Okposo; KO’s ceiling may be a few inches higher than Ladd’s but his floor is a few feet lower. He may be one of the most inconsistent players I have ever seen and the Isles need consistency from their top line out someone else besides Tavares.
  
  Chimera is an upgrade over Martin: I love Matt Martin, but their usually potent 4th line was neutralized by the Panthers’ speed in the playoffs and putting the faster, more skilled Chimera with Cizikas and Clutterbuck ought to solve that and even elevate that group to more of a 3rd line.
  
  Parenteau is certainly a downgrade from Nielsen, but committing to Nielsen long-term when they have Strome, who is much better as a center than a wing, Nelson and Cizikas plus Barzal in the pipeline, would be tough to do. A short-term natural winger like PAP makes a bit more sense.
  - Cam Robinson 2016-08-19 at 15:31Log in to Reply
    
    I agree on all fronts. I’d like to see them provide JT with a true number one defenseman and a dynamic winger. Shouldn’t be too difficult, right?
    - isle b. 2016-08-19 at 15:45Log in to Reply
      
      The Isles don’t have a true #1 D, but they have depth; of all their positions, I think their D is the most set w/ Leddy, Hamonic, Boychuk, deHaan, Hickey and now Pulock (at least until the expansion draft scuttles that!). Yes, a dynamic winger is a perennial need. I think they are hoping Barzal could be that guy in the very near future (and essentially replacing a RW in Okposo w/ a LW in Ladd certainly opens the door for Barzal as opposed to, say, Dal Colle).
      - Cam Robinson 2016-08-19 at 15:58
        
        I think they have designs on Barzal to be a centre. He’s a natural centre and his playmaking abilities are sublime. I suppose you could move him to the wing and allow Strome and Nelson to battle for 2C duties, but I don’t think that’s the long term goal.
        
        Dal Colle, as a natural winger, could be a perfect fit next to Barzal in the top six not too far down the road. One great distributor + one hell of a shooter.
      - isle b. 2016-08-19 at 16:18
        
        You are probably right about Barzal. In the near term, either he or Strome will have to adapt to wing and Strome struggled miserably playing RW with Tavares last year. Strome clearly needs to be the primary puck carrier on whatever line he is on and he’s not going to be in that role playing with #91.
- Cam Robinson 2016-08-19 at 14:16Log in to Reply
  
  I didn’t like what they accomplished this off season either. And like I said, Strome could have the right recipe for a bounce back, or things could go a little sour throughout their lineup causing another middling campaign.
  
  NYI appears to be wasting Tavares’ prime years.
  - isle b. 2016-08-19 at 14:25Log in to Reply
    
    The Isles’ forwards, as a group with exceptions of Tavares and the 4th line, have long been soft and inconsistent. You could see that with the way late-season additions Prince and Quine came out of nowhere and rocketed to the top of the depth chart in the playoffs. Nielsen typifies that softness somewhat, while Okposo absolutely personifies that inconsistency. Changes clearly had to be made and letting their UFAs walk and signing replacements was the most expedient way to do that. A bigger waste of time would have been to maintain the usual Isles’ operating procedure of keeping the status quo even when its clear it isn’t working (exhibit A: Coach Capuano).
Ken Landry 2016-08-19 at 15:56Log in to Reply

You need to fix the location of Mason’s stats. They are located in Strome’s part. It confused me and I had to double-check whether you were talking about another Strome that was a goalie. :)
- Cam Robinson 2016-08-20 at 10:44Log in to Reply
  
  Great catch! Thanks for that

UPCOMING GAMES

Dec 22 - 12:12	NYR	vs	CAR
Dec 22 - 17:12	T.B	vs	FLA
Dec 22 - 17:12	UTA	vs	ANA
Dec 22 - 17:12	WSH	vs	L.A
Dec 22 - 20:12	EDM	vs	OTT
Dec 22 - 20:12	COL	vs	SEA