Devils Steal Draft Lottery, Pageau, Holtby

With the fifth-best odds entering Saturday’s draft lottery, the Devils are the grand prize winners of the draft lottery and will receive the first overall pick. The Flyers and Stars also bucked their odds and won the second and third overall picks, respectively.
 

Officially adding "NHL lottery ball specialist" to my hockey resume.

— Taylor Hall (@hallsy09) April 30, 2017

Finishing a full 21 points behind the next-worst team, the Avalanche deserved a better fate and will have to settle for the fourth overall pick. But the fact that a team could epic tank and still not receive the first overall pick proves that this whole draft lottery thing works. I’ve heard all kinds of weird alternatives to the draft lottery, including a tournament for non-playoff teams that would give the winner the first overall pick. But then the teams that really need the help don’t get it. And that could mean the end for franchises that struggle at the gate.

My prediction is that the Devils pick Nolan Patrick, then the Flyers pick Nico Hischier (although those two picks could be flip-flopped). Then after that it’s anybody’s guess. So if teams like the Avs, Canucks, Knights, and Coyotes are disappointed in the lottery results, then at least they don’t have to agonize since this season’s draft doesn’t feature a true franchise player like the last two did. Plus the choices after Patrick and Hischier seem to be all over the map, so there doesn’t appear to be much of an advantage to picking third as opposed to, say, tenth.

Speaking of the Devils, GM Ray Shero said he would reach out to Ilya Kovalchuk’s agent next week (video). I won’t jump the gun on any fantasy analysis, since there’s no guarantee Kovalchuk will be playing for the Devils or even in the NHL next season. But the Devils could be a much improved squad next season by adding one of Patrick/Hischier and Kovalchuk to the fold. And that would be another thing that would make Taylor Hall happy.

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Rangers/Senators

Jean-Gabriel Pageau was probably way down on your list of playoff pool picks. But he played the game of his life on Saturday, scoring goals on all four of his shots. Pageau now has five goals during the playoffs, which tied him for the playoff lead as of the end of this game. He’s found chemistry in the past with snipers like Mark Stone, but the fact that he sees virtually no power-play time should lead you to believe that any success will be short-term. Still, what a fantastic game for the local Ottawa boy.

Here’s number four of the game for #44:

Unfortunately, it wasn’t all good for Ottawa forwards. Clarke MacArthur left the game with an upper-body injury during the second period after taking a hit from Ryan McDonagh. MacArthur has two goals in the playoffs, but he’s played just eight regular-season games total over the past two seasons because of concussion issues. Let’s hope this isn’t yet another concussion, or that could be it for his career.

Brady Skjei scored two goals in Game 2, giving him four goals total during the playoffs. Skjei scored just five all season, but he finished a point shy of 40 in his rookie season. He might normally seem like a good bet to improve in his sophomore season, but the Rangers’ defense has several veterans above him on the depth chart and probably not going anywhere. He’d likely need an increase in icetime, or at least an increase in power-play time, as he averaged just 17 minutes this season. Despite that, he has the makings of a very strong fantasy contributor by his third or fourth season.

Henrik Lundqvist entered the game with a 1.74 GAA and .948 SV% entering Game 2. Senators coach Guy Boucher said that his team would need to take at least 40 shots to win after peppering Lundqvist with 43 shots in Game 1. Well, Lundqvist allowed five goals on just 24 shots during regulation, and the Senators could have scored even more with some of the chances that they received. Boucher will take the six goals on 34 shots, but the Sens won’t have it this good when the teams head to MSG. Last week I discussed whether a strong playoffs could boost Lundqvist’s sagging fantasy value for next season’s drafts.

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Penguins/Capitals

If the Penguins weren’t residing in the Capitals’ heads after last season, then they have to be now. This series isn’t over by any stretch because the Capitals are still a very good team. But these Capitals have quite a hill to climb with the next two games in the barn of the defending Stanley Cup champions.
 

pic.twitter.com/QJwgfJkisr

— Will (@HeyMyNameIsWill) April 30, 2017

It’s at least a round too early for me to be mentioning this, but wouldn’t a Sidney Crosby/Connor McDavid Stanley Cup Final be one for the ages? But hey, you know what? The Oilers now have the best odds of winning Stanley Cup, according to VegasInsider.com.

The Capitals were desperate enough for a turnaround that they yanked Braden Holtby after two periods. Holtby allowed three goals on 14 shots before giving way to Philipp Grubauer. The backup wasn’t any better, allowing two goals on nine shots. No goalie controversy here. Expect Holtby to be back between the pipes for Game 3. But with a 2.62 GAA and .911 SV% during the playoffs, Holtby hasn’t shown us his finest play. Those numbers are actually his worst over his five-year playoff career. So the Capitals’ lack of winning in May hasn’t historically been because of Holtby.

When we pick Penguins in playoff pools, we check off the usual names: Sidney Crosby, Evgeni Malkin, Phil Kessel, and Kris Letang (when he’s healthy). At the rate he’s scoring, Jake Guentzel might be on that list very soon. The rookie scored two goals and added an assist to give him a playoff-leading seven tallies. Guentzel is currently ranked #99 by Dobber in his keeper rankings and #135 by Pete Jensen in his 2017-18 draft rankings. We never would have imagined that Guentzel would be ranked this high this quickly, but those rankings could climb even further because he absolutely clicks with Crosby.

Crosby’s other linemate from the regular season hasn’t had it quite as good during the playoffs. Conor Sheary hasn’t scored a goal and has just two assists during the playoffs. He was even held to under 10 minutes of icetime in Game 2. Sheary is ranked #52 by Dobber in his keeper rankings and #71 by Pete Jensen in his 2017-18 draft rankings. So for argument’s sake, do we eventually rank Guentzel ahead of Sheary if this trend continues? Guentzel’s points-per-game average during the regular season (0.825) isn’t that far behind Sheary’s (0.869), so I think these two eventually get ranked closer than they are right now.

Here's some food for thought on the Sheary/Guentzel debate:
 

@travisyost Not to say Sheary isn't good. Clearly he has a strong skillet. But he has benefited greatly from 87. Guentzel more of a natural talent.

— Dan Rosen (@drosennhl) April 30, 2017

Wouldn’t it be weird if Marc-Andre Fleury led the Penguins to another Stanley Cup, then was picked up by Vegas in the expansion draft? Maybe that happened sometime during the NHL’s expansion explosion during the 1960s and 1970s, but that would be unprecedented during this day and age. Matt Murray still hasn’t begun skating, but you’d have to assume that Fleury stays in net even if and when Murray is ready to return.

If you’re in a playoff pool that is running short on available bodies, you may want to consider Carl Hagelin, who returned to the Pens’ lineup for Game 2. He was held without a point in just 11 minutes of icetime, but you may recall the success he had on the HBK Line last season (Phil Kessel and Nick Bonino).

One other Penguins’ note: Patric Hornqvist left Game 2 late in the first period after blocking a shot. He stayed out for the rest of his shift while the Pens were pinned in their zone, but he appeared to be in considerable pain while he was finishing his shift.

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I miss the Contrarian article, one of my two regular articles that I have edited since becoming an editor at Dobber Hockey. So with the lack of content for Ramblings during the summer, I’ll try my best to bring up a fantasy hockey-related topic worth discussing. Think of it as a mini-Contrarian of sorts. I like fantasy hockey scenarios, so here’s one for you:
 

With the draft lottery tomorrow, what draft position would you rather have in a 12-team fantasy hockey non-keeper draft?

— Ian Gooding (@Ian_Gooding) April 29, 2017

When I first posted the question, the 12 and 13 picks response looked like it was going to be the runaway winner. But this turned out to be a somewhat close vote, which turn out to be the best topics to debate.

A couple theories as to why fantasy owners might prefer the 12 and 13 picks over the 1 and 24 picks:

1. Less pressure. If 1983 Wayne Gretzky or 1992 Mario Lemieux were handed to you on a silver platter, then this was a super easy pick. Today, not so much. It’s a lot easier to screw up this pick than ever before, even though the range of choices are all elite players.  
    
2. The wait for the second pick. This may seem like an obvious reason, but think about it from the standpoint of an early goalie run. If there are 3-4 top-tier goalies, and goalies are especially valuable in your league, then they are no doubt gone by then. You already spent your top pick on who you thought would be the top scorer in the league. That might force you to reach for a goalie that you weren’t planning on drafting for another couple rounds. But on the bright side, you receive your third pick at number 25.

What about combining the best of both worlds with the number 6 or 7 pick? Then you will have equal time between picks to consider your next pick. Having received the “end” pick in the past, I know there can be a lot of pressure making two picks at the same time.

Has this ever happened to you: With those back-to-back picks, you make your first pick almost right away. Then you spend nearly the entire 90 seconds (or time needed to make a pick) figuring out who you will pick. That’s happened to me numerous times. So give me that middle pick!

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