Puck luck is one of the hardest things to measure in hockey. There are different ways to try and measure luck, but one of my favourites is by using individual points percentage (IPP).
IPP measures how often a player picked up a point when a goal was scored with him on the ice. If a team scores 100 goals when the player is on the ice, and he gets a point on 60 of them, his IPP is 60 percent. If the next season he had points on 50 of the 100 goals, that a drop of 10 percentage points, or the same as 10 assists.
Just remember that not everyone who sees a drop in IPP will have fewer points. In the previous example, if the player picked up a point on 75 of his team's 150 goals, that reduces his IPP to 50 percent.
According to this article by Travis Yost at TSN.com, an average NHL forward picks up a point on 68 percent of goals scored. For defensemen, that is about 30 percent. That article is a few years old, but the numbers shouldn't have changed significantly, if at all. Elite players will have a higher IPP since the puck is on their stick more often.
Below are 10 players who had a lower IPP this season than normal. Some of them still had great years even with the reduced IPP, but their production would have been much higher had their IPP been in their normal range.
10. Josh Anderson
The 26-year-old Anderson surely had a season to forget for Columbus. Injuries limited him to 26 games, where he had only one goal and four points. His shot rate dropped 0.38 shots per game and his ice time was down a minute over last year. His shooting percentage was a paltry 1.6 percent, much lower than the 11.7 percent he averaged the previous three seasons. Despite still being on the second power-play unit, he didn't have a power-play point. His IPP was 30.8 percent, compared to around a 60 percent average the previous few years. Anderson will be neglected in some drafts for next season, but you would be wise to remember his name as a potential bounce-back candidate.
9. Viktor Arvidsson
One of my favorite columns to pen each year is one looking at potential first-time 70-point players. Last year, one of my biggest whiffs was Arvidsson. In 2018-19, he had 34 goals and 48 points in 58 games, a 68-point pace. This year, he had a disappointing season, with 28 points in 57 games, a 40-point pace. While there were numerous reasons behind the decline, a small bit of it could be chalked up to puck luck. His IPP dropped from 64 percent last year to 56 percent this season.