21 Fantasy Hockey Rambles

Mario Prata

2020-09-13

Every Sunday, we’ll share 21 Fantasy Rambles from our writers at DobberHockey. These thoughts are curated from the past week’s 'Daily Ramblings'.

Writers/Editors: Ian Gooding, Michael Clifford, Cam Robinson, and Dobber


 

1. There was a lot of chatter after Brayden Point‘s 5-point game a couple nights ago about his draft. As was often mentioned on social media, he finished with 91 points for Moose Jaw in his draft year, on a roster that was 19th in scoring out of 22 teams. That year, no one else on his team had more than 55 points. For reference, it was the same year Sam Reinhart went second overall out of the WHL (from a team that scored nearly a half-goal more per game than Point’s) and Leon Draisaitl not much later (from a team that scored even more than Reinhart’s). This isn’t ancient history, either. This is from 2014.

It’s a good reminder that stats are only useful if they have context. Sure, Point wasn’t a top-10 scorer in the league in 2013-14, his draft year. But his team was also pretty bad and he was head-and-shoulders above everyone else. That kind of context is important when looking for, say, a future franchise center. (sep10)

 

2. Not long ago, I was talking with some other hockey writers about Torey Krug‘s future in the NHL. He’s a free agent and this is probably his last chance for a major contract.

What I wonder: how much is Krug worth? Like, really worth? I don’t project future contracts; I leave that to Alex MacLean over in our ‘Capped’ section, and he has Krug’s future contract pegged for $8.1M AAV, and that’s right around where John Carlson signed. So if we think that Carlson and Krug are somewhere in the vicinity of each other in terms of skill (and I do), then that $8.1M per season for Krug is fair.

The thing with Krug is he doesn’t play monster minutes. Carlson has averaged 24:50 per game in the regular season over the last three years. Krug has never averaged 22 minutes in any single season and has averaged under 21 minutes a game over the last three years. There is a chasm of difference between playing 20 minutes a game and 25 minutes a game. Those extra five minutes have to go to someone, and it’s doubtful it would be someone of Krug’