21 Fantasy Hockey Rambles

Mario Prata

2020-09-27

Every Sunday, we’ll share 21 Fantasy Rambles from our writers at DobberHockey. These thoughts are curated from the past week’s 'Daily Ramblings'.

Writers/Editors: Ian Gooding, Michael Clifford, Cam Robinson, and Dobber


 

1. How high can Anton Khudobin's fantasy value get in a keeper league? The best comparable is Tim Thomas, who didn’t become an NHLer until he was 31. He was nearly 32 when he stole the job from Andrew Raycroft and he was 33 when he started putting up elite fantasy numbers. Thomas was an elite fantasy goaltender from 2007 through 2012. So from age 33 through 38.

Khudobin has been a backup for forever. But he’s been an elite backup for two seasons now. If the Stars manage to sign him to large dough, then they’ll be trading Ben Bishop no question. But whoever signs Khudobin will be signing him to be their starter, despite his never playing more than 45 games in a season (he did play 54 games in 2010-11 in the AHL/NHL combined).

I’m sure more than a few teams would be willing to sign him and push to get 55 starts out of him. I think Khudobin’s age and his track record as a backup makes him acquirable in most leagues – for a price. But I feel good about that price being worth paying, within reason. (sep21)

 

2. I put together a preliminary list of trades I think make sense in exchange for Patrik Laine. Please note that there would likely be other pieces involved on either side, either for cap or trade balance reasons, it's just what the trade would be centered around. Assuming the Jets are looking for a young, cost-controlled top-6 center or top-pair defenseman, here are six targets:

Again, more would need to be added to something like a Bean trade, but as a base, these all make sense to me. What about to you, dear reader? (sep25)

 

3. In case you missed it, be sure to check out our Fantasy Take on this week’s Penguins/Panthers trade that was on, then off, then on again. Mike Clifford wrote a comprehensive piece on the many implications of this trade. For my take, scroll down to the end of Saturday's Ramblings here. I highlight a point that Mike made on the two main parties of the trade while adding my own experience in owning each of these players at one time in my keeper league. (sep26)

 

4. The Montreal Canadiens locked up an important part of their defense, signing Jeff Petry to a four-year, $25 million extension that will kick in after the 2020-21 season. During his time in Montreal, Petry has developed into a borderline Top 100 Roto Rankings option. Consider his per-season averages over the last three seasons, compared to all NHL d-men:

– 12 goals: 11th
– 30 assists: 19th
– 4 power-play goals: tied for 5th
– 15 power-play points: 17th
– 169 shots: 22nd
– 178 hits: 9th
– 23:25 total ice time: 25th

Although he’ll be 37 when his new contract ends, Petry has been more of a late bloomer than other blueliners. Top-pairing defensemen aren’t easy to find, and they don’t come cheap. (sep26)

 

5. The NHL buyout period began on Friday and will remain open until October 8. The Senators got things started by waiving Masterton Trophy winner Bobby Ryan, who had two years left with a $7.25 million cap hit on his contract. After the personal challenges that Ryan has faced, I hope he lands on his feet somewhere. And I think he will.

Retaining Ryan’s contract may have seemed necessary for the Senators to reach the cap floor, but Pierre LeBrun tweeted the following (see second tweet):

~ Sens view the Bobby Ryan decision mostly as a hockey decision, wanting to open up a roster spot for younger players. Also wanted to give Ryan a fresh start. Sens have nothing but good things to say about him. But the Sens felt it was good for both sides to part ways… Between having to sign their RFAs and needing to go find a goalie, cap floor not a concern. While I think some teams are tying to dump contracts on them, Sens are fielding way more calls from teams right now looking to get at their bevy of 2nd round picks… ~

To clarify, the Senators have four second-round picks in this year’s draft and three second-round picks in next year’s draft.

As for the “bad contracts,” I would think there would be no shortage of teams that would approach the Senators. A contract with a higher cap hit than actual salary to pay would be more ideal, as would a strong sweetener being thrown in. Despite what you might think about the Senators, they are dealing from a position of strength here. If they are still struggling to reach the cap floor, there are lots of other ways they can spend money, which could even include offer-sheeting an RFA like Pierre-Luc Dubois or Mathew Barzal. An offer sheet might make some sense (if they’re daring enough to do it), but it might not fit the penny-pinching ways of Eugene Melnyk. (sep26)

 

6. For more information on how the cap will affect your cap leagues or cap projections for players moving forward, be sure to check out our ‘Capped’ section from our own Alex MacLean. It has projections, increases, decreases, and everything else cap leaguers need to prepare for next season. He has an ongoing series moving along right now, which is a good start to the off-season.

 

7. I’ll say this up front: I think the Flames are a dark horse for Alex Pietrangelo, if he wants to sign there. They have $17 million in space and need to replace a few of their blue liners, but don’t have any major contracts to hand out. They also firmly believe they’re in their Cup window. (sep23)

 

8. Where Tyson Barrie ends up could be very fascinating. In my mind, this guy is akin to Keith Yandle. He’s someone I want playing 19-20 minutes a game with power play exposure. He’s not a guy I want playing 21-22 minutes a game with power play exposure. “Is the juice worth the squeeze,” to quote one of my favourite movies this century. Is Barrie worth what he’ll probably command on the open market? I don’t think he is, but I’m not an NHL general manager.

If this were the old Florida regime, I would say the Panthers will be in the mix. But it’s not, so maybe they’re a bit more cautious.

Hear me out: I think Ottawa is a good landing spot for Barrie. Thomas Chabot is on the left side, so it balances their puck-movers. Erik Brannstrom is a righty, and this could provide insulation on the second pair. Barrie coming off a tough year probably won’t command as much on the open market as he would have a year ago. It’s a Melnyk Savings Spree! (He won’t sign there.)

If Calgary misses out on Pietrangelo, going after Barrie would make sense. As it stands right now, Rasmus Andersson is their only non-ELC right-shot defenseman with a contract. (sep24)

 

9. Mikael Granlund could end up being the steal of free agency, if there is such a thing. After a pair of 67- and 69-point seasons, he has just 84 over his last 142 games, or a sub-50-point pace. Points aren’t everything, but they do dictate a lot in contract negotiations, and falling off in Nashville could make for a bargain.

In my mind, Granlund goes to a team needing a middle-six left winger, but are already a playoff team, or very close to it.

Dallas makes sense to me. Granlund could slide in easily on the second line with Joe Pavelski, which would free up guys like Gurianov or Hintz in a sheltered third-line role.

I can also see Florida making a pitch here, assuming they don’t go all in on Petro. Also, I assume he’ll come in under Hoffman’s number, so it could be a Hoffman replacement – and a good one – for less.

This is the type of signing I think Steve Yzerman makes. He can sign a good veteran on a good contract that can help balance out their offensive scoring, but also not leave the cap situation with an albatross as the team improves in the coming seasons. But maybe that’s not a team Granlund wants to go to, in favour of a contender.

If Granlund wants to go to a contender, I think he’s the consolation prize for the Avalanche if they don’t get Hall. (sep24)

 

10. The next two years in Los Angeles will be interesting. They have a prospect pool that may be the best in the NHL (including whomever they take at number-2 this year), but they have a lot of aging players. They also have Jeff Carter and Dustin Brown coming off the books in two years.

The team has space ($17 million) and no big signings to make on their own roster. Do they try and make a push to get something out of what’s left of Carter/Brown, or do they sit back and let Drew Doughty/Anze Kopitar get two years older before making a push? Not an easy decision. (sep23)

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11. The Red Wings are in the same boat as Buffalo in that they have over $30 million in cap space, but they have two likely significant contracts to make in Tyler Bertuzzi and Anthony Mantha.

They have a ton of space and, yes, a lot of players to sign, but they also have a lot of young players on cheap deals that have a shot of being in the lineup like Joe Veleno, Filip Zadina, Dennis Cholowski and Moritz Seider. That would leave room for Detroit to make a splash, should they choose and should they convince someone to sign, and they have more bad money coming off the books after 2020-21. (sep23)

 

12. It’s hard to deny a player the Hart Trophy when he amassed 110 points with three weeks left in the season when no one else had cracked 100. Yes, Leon Draisaitl played more with Connor McDavid than he did without him and that helps a lot, but he helped carry this team into a playoff position at the pause, which is something the Oilers had struggled to do most of the last 15 years.

I’m someone who has generally been a lot lower on Draisaitl than some of my fellow analysts and readers, but he opened my eyes for how good he is in the offensive zone. (sep22)

 

13. I don’t have a lot of reason to think Norris Trophy-winning Roman Josi will falter next year, so I’ll be interested to see where different fantasy rankers have him heading into 2020-21. There’s a pretty good case for him going as the first blueliner. (sep22)

 

14. My initial pick for the Calder was Cale Makar with Adam Fox in second and Quinn Hughes third. Obviously, Fox wasn’t nominated, and Dominik Kubalik was, so that changes the equation. It seemed at least somewhat likely that three defensemen would get the nod, but it was not to be.

The winner: Cale Makar. The final point tally was relatively close, but Makar had double the first-place votes of second-place Hughes, and Makar was either first or second on every ballot.

I know this will anger Vancouver fans, but I outlined in my awards linked at the top why Makar should have been the Calder. It’s a situation where fans won’t help but feel slighted, and yet this was a year where any of three players (I still think Fox should have been nominated over Kubalik) could have won and there probably shouldn’t be much consternation. It really was a special year for rookies, particularly on the back end, in the NHL.

On the bright side for Canucks faithful, as pointed out by Cam Robinson on Twitter, this made it three straight years that a Canuck was nominated for the Calder with Brock Boeser back in 2018, Elias Pettersson last year (which he won), and Hughes with the runner-up this year. If you’re looking to build for the future, this is a pretty good start. They just need to stop handing out four-year contracts for bottom-6 players. (sep22)

 

15. Nicolas Roy, who just refuses to be sent to the minors or left out of the Vegas lineup, impressed me during the playoffs. He takes what little ice time he gets and makes things happen regardless of how weak his linemates are. And the coach has noticed these things. Roy’s average ice time by quarter this season: 9:28, 9:41, 10:26, and 15:32 plus 14:26 in the playoffs when unproven rookies get sent out less often. He had at least a shot on goal in each of his last 15 games. That’s with no power-play time and 14 minutes of ice time. He’s formed some chemistry with Alex Tuch and that could be a scary combo in two years. Each of them are 6-4 and if they click with, say, the 6-2 Cody Glass it would be fun to watch. (sep21)

 

16. If Robin Lehner did indeed agree to a contract in June but was waiting to sign it after the playoffs – why hasn’t he signed it yet? Was this rumored contract contingent on his getting the team to the Final? Lehner had denied the rumor and stated in no uncertain terms that a contract had not been agreed to. But I do think Vegas is a good fit. What would they do with Marc-Andre Fleury? (sep21)

 

17. The Islanders' top line of Anders LeeMat BarzalJordan Eberle has been elite in terms of driving possession. One of the best in the league. Offensively-speaking, however, they are only as good as the team's second line of Brock Nelson, Anthony Beauvillier and Josh Bailey. Barzal will get five or 10 more points than Nelson of course, but Lee and Eberle are probably not going to combine for the same points that Beauvillier and Bailey combine for. But overall this is a fantastic one-two punch. And with  Ilya Sorokin in the mix next season I’m pretty excited about this team. (sep21)

 

18. Another player who impressed me on the Islanders was Ryan Pulock. He’s a defenseman with high upside and we’ve been waiting for him to take off for some time now. But keep in mind that he’s only 25 (26 next month) and he is the most talented rearguard in the system there. That means that he’s their defensive defenseman. Their Alex Pietrangelo. And with offensive options available such as Devon Toews and Noah Dobson, Pulock is going to see a lopsided amount of defensive zone starts. But his skill level is such that he’s going to build on his production year after year regardless. His pace this season was for 42 points and I believe next year he’ll be adding to that – perhaps by as many as 10. (sep21)

 

19. I don’t foresee a huge drop in value for Kris Letang. However, his current situation isn’t helping matters either. After a poor postseason performance (zero points in four games), Letang is the subject of trade rumors. That seems puzzling, given the fact that the Penguins will likely keep the current core intact to make one or two more playoff runs.

Maybe this is all smoke that will all blow over come next season, and Letang will be back to his usual spot of producing points with Sidney Crosby and Evgeni Malkin. There are always the lingering injury issues to contend with for Letang owners, though. (sep20)

 

20. Max Domi is another player who is rumored to be on the block. And like Letang, he didn’t have a postseason to remember (three assists in 10 games, with all three assists in one game).

Domi appears to be better off as a center, but after the postseason the Habs appear ready to build around Nick Suzuki and Jesperi Kotkaniemi as their top two centers. That would either push Domi to the wing or down the lineup, which is what happened to him in the playoffs, when he started on the fourth line.

A trade might help Domi’s value, just as it did when he was first traded to Montreal. However, keep in mind that he lucked out a bit during that first season in Montreal with a higher-than-normal shooting percentage. Remove the 72-point output of 2018-19 and the rest might be about what we should expect from Domi. (sep20)

 

21. I’m not suggesting that Tuukka Rask should not have left the bubble, particularly if it was for some type of family emergency. Yet after the Bruins were able to rely on Jaroslav Halak for the remainder of the postseason, I wonder if there’s more of a 50-50 split with Halak next season.

Both goalies will be in the final year of their contract next season, and Rask is believed to be contemplating retirement after next season. Rask made that comment back in March, so I wonder if given his departure from the bubble, he’s thinking about walking away from the Bruins for good before next summer. (sep20)

 

Have a good week, folks be safe!!

Thanks for continuing to support the website and if you’re bored and need a fantasy hockey fix visit the gang in the forum here.

 

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