Fantasy take: Montreal sends Max Domi to Columbus for Josh Anderson

Michael Clifford

2020-10-06

It had been rumoured for a while that Montreal was looking to move Max Domi, and it had been rumoured for a while that Montreal was interested in RFA winger Josh Anderson out of Columbus. All those rumours came to fruition as Domi was traded for Anderson in a swap, with the Habs adding a third-round pick in 2020.

Anderson was injured for most of 2019-20, scoring just one goal in 26 games, but he averaged 23 goals every 82 games the three years prior. Domi also had a down 2019-20, posting the second-lowest point-per-game mark of his career (0.62, and remember he played for Arizona for three years), but posted 72 points in 82 games back in 2018-19.

Let's break it down.

 

What Montreal gets

The Habs get a big-body winger who can drive the play and who can score. Those guys don't come around very often. It is not conjecture to say he drives the play, either. Here are his offensive and defensive impacts from 2016-19, or not including his injured season:

 

 

That's stellar. He's inside the 80th percentile for driving shots and expected goals, and he's passable defensively. Mix those in with a guy who is 6-foot-3, hits like a freight train, can kill penalties, and can score 20-plus goals, and there's a real good winger here.

Anderson's problem, of course, is injuries. He had that shoulder injury that seemed to bother him all season before finally having surgery in March (he played just 26 games in the meantime). If that shoulder isn't fully healed by the time the next regular season rolls around, this could be a problem. Anderson will be UFA in a year and we know that power forwards tend not to age well. The window the Habs have to get full value out of him probably won't extend for five or six years past UFA (he turns 27 in May). They need him to be healthy and back to 2018-19 form ASAP, and the fact that he does not have a long-term deal in place already is concerning. You don't want to sign this guy for six years after next season, you want to sign him for five years now. And they may not even have him for more than a year, depending on whether he wants to test the UFA market should he have a rebound season.

This should be good for Anderson. With Bjorkstrand and Atkinson, Anderson was probably going to be the RW3 in Columbus. Now, he'll be at least on the second line in Montreal.

If he's healthy, this spells the end of Joel Armia in the top-6 for the Habs. He had spent time down the lineup last year and in the playoffs, but had been on the second line at times as well. If both Anderson and Brendan Gallagher are in the lineup, the Habs have their top-6 right wingers. If he's healthy, Anderson is a threat for 20 goals, 200 shots, and 150 hits.

 

What Columbus gets

The Jackets now have a true second-line centre. Domi has his issues – we'll get to those – but he's a wonderful playmaker. From 2016-19, he ranked in the 93rd percentile in shot assists (passes leading to shots), the 87th percentile in entries with possession per 60 minutes, and the 94th percentile in exits with possession per 60 minutes (from CJ Turtoro's viz):

 

 

That kind of playmaking should be coveted by a team like Columbus. They really struggled to score – they barely outscored Anaheim in 2019-20 – and having Domi as the 2C behind Pierre-Luc Dubois gives guys like Gustav Nyquist and Cam Atkinson a playmaking centre that can help them reach prior career highs, or somewhere in the vicinity. Columbus lacked secondary scoring and this gives them a centre to provide them with a legitimate second scoring line.

The flipside, though, is Domi is atrocious defensively. That is not hyperbole, either. Again, from Evolving Hockey, these are Domi's offensive and defensive impacts from 2016-19:

 

 

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That is very, very bad.

So the question becomes: can Domi get in Tortorella's good graces? I'm a Habs fan and I've watched Domi closely for two years. When he's on his game offensively, he's an absolute joy to watch. When he's not on his game offensively, he actively hurts his team when he steps on the ice because of his terrible defence. Does Tortorella give him leash to make mistakes defensively or do we see Boone Jenner as the 2C by Game 10?

That's what makes me nervous for Domi in Columbus. If he gets consistent second-line minutes and top PP time, he can put up a 60-point season again and drive someone like Atkinson to 30 goals. But if Tortorella does his standard yo-yo of guys up and down the lineup, fantasy owners may get real frustrated owning him.

It sure feels like this is the end of Alex Wennberg's tenure in Columbus. There have been rumours of a buyout and this won't do anything to quell those rumours. It also makes me wonder if Jenner just slides down to 3C or if they move him to the wing. My guess is the former, and that doesn't help whatever meager value he had. It does also free up a bottom-6 role for someone like Kevin Stenlund or Emil Bemstrom.

This feels like a good trade for both sides. The Habs get a big top-6 winger who can score 20 goals, kill penalties, and run the opponent out of the rink. The Jackets get a second-line playmaking centre they desperately need. There are, however, significant concerns with both for different reasons.

And don't forget neither player is technically signed. Anderson could go one year of arbitration and then walk. Domi could sign a two-year bridge to establish value and then walk. It's a gamble for both teams, though I do think the added third-round pick tilts this to the Columbus side.

 

Who this helps

Jesperi Kotkaniemi

Josh Anderson

Cam Atkinson

Emil Bemstrom

Kevin Stenlund

 

Who this hurts

Alex Wennberg

Boone Jenner

Joel Armia

Charles Hudon

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