Top 10 Players Ranked Too Low on Yahoo

Tom Collins

2020-12-14

Even though the NHL doesn't have an official start date, division realignments or a schedule, that's not stopping fantasy general managers from participating in fantasy drafts.

With Yahoo opening its draft rooms last week, poolies have been busy. When you do a draft or mock draft, you can sort by three draft categories: Expert pre-season ranking, rank based on league settings and average draft position. Just keep in mind that the default ranking is the experts' pre-season ranking of players, which is used for autodrafting your players if you don't edit your roster in advance.

When drafting, it's a smart idea to scroll down an extra 30 or so picks. That way, you can find players you might want to consider grabbing a round or two earlier.

Last week we looked at the players ranked too high according to the expert pre-season ranking. This week, let's look at the players ranked too low who have the opportunity to outperform their expert-ranking spot.

Just remember all of Yahoo's stats are still based on an 82-game season.

10. Matt Grzelcyk

This is a bit of a long-shot pick, so you should be able to pick him up late, but he's worth a look in the last few rounds. Ranked 286th by the experts, many fantasy general managers are already selecting him earlier than that, as Grzelcyk's average draft position is 164th. In the past couple of years, Grzelcyk has taken over the top PP duties every time Torey Krug was out of the lineup. Now that Krug has moved on to St. Louis, Grzelcyk has the opportunity to be Boston's top power-play guy for the full season.

9. Thatcher Demko

How much has the decision by the Canucks to sign Braden Holtby affected Demko's draft position? He's currently the 29th-netminder being selected, behind Jake Allen, Calvin Petersen and Jaroslav Halak. I'll forgive those choosing Halak over Demko, but not the other two. Demko will start the season in a time-share situation in Vancouver, but Holtby hasn't been great the last few years. Demko may take over the top spot at some point, and it's a risk worth taking for your third goalie.

8. Oliver Bjorkstrand

There's a lot of fantasy general managers who will disagree with me on this choice. While his expert rank is 158, his average draft position is lower at 174.5. Part of the reason for his low ranking is his projected lack of power-play points. He had just six power-play points last year and has never reached double digits in the category. That's not good. However, he was underrated good last year, with 30 points in his final 30 games, and finishing with a 60-point pace and Columbus figures to be more offensive this year with the addition of Max Domi.

7. Mikko Koskinen

I know there's not a lot of faith in the Oilers' netminder, but he is going way too late in drafts. Ranked as the 30th netminder in the expert ranking, Koskinen's average draft position sees him selected as the 44th netminder selected. That's a little insane, as even Chris Driedger is going higher in drafts. Koskinen should be the top guy in Edmonton this year after Mike Smith faltered last season and stunk out the joint in the first postseason game. Oilers' brass can't trust Smith to handle 50 per cent of the games this year. That means Koskinen should be getting more starts and being drafted much higher than he is.

6. Tomas Tatar

Tatar led Montreal in points last season, and was on pace for 74 in an 82-game season. However, his numbers across many of Yahoo's default scoring categories are very good. In the past two years combined, he was first on Montreal in points, and was second in goals, plus/minus and power-play points while still contributing more than a hit per game. That's some pretty good value, especially at the expert rank of 242. Most fantasy GMs are smarter than that, but even with an average draft position of 152, that's still a little low, especially since Roope Hintz, Quinton Byfield and Craig Smith with higher average draft positions.

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5. Kasperi Kapanen

I mentioned Kapanen a few weeks ago in a column about players who could reach a 70-point pace for the first time, but it still bears repeating about how great his opportunity is in Pittsburgh. I normally warn against drafting players based on linemates, but Kapanen is in a unique situation. Pittsburgh gave up a first-round pick for him, they aren't going to do that to keep him on the third or fourth line. Kapanen showed success while playing with elite players in Toronto, so expect that to continue as he plays alongside one of the most elite players of all time in Sidney Crosby. Kapanen's Yahoo rank is 206th, which would be the 18th round in a 12-player draft.

4. Neal Pionk

In all the mock drafts I have done so far, I have been reaching for Pionk as I believe he's going to break out as a top-15 defenseman this season. Last year's numbers were impressive, but were also a little skewed lower as he didn't take over the top power-play unit until about 25 games into the season. Once that spot was his, his per-game shot rate increased significantly, going from 1.96 in the 25 games before to 2.76 for the rest of the season. Pionk also contributes in the hits category. Now he'll have the whole 2020-21 season as the main defenseman in Winnipeg, so I expect his per-game numbers to increase from what they were last year.

3. Taylor Hall

I've been on record in this column that saying Hall is a 70-point player who had a great 1.3 seasons over the past five years. However, this year will be an exception to that belief, as he's never had the opportunity to play with someone as talented as Jack Eichel. Sure, he played in Connor McDavid's rookie season, but they didn't play on the same line (Hall was on the ice for only 11.9 per cent of McDavid's 5-on-5 minutes that season). Hall is ranked 49th in Yahoo's expert list, behind players such as Teuvo Teravainen, Brock Boeser and Johnny Gaudreau.

2. Kyle Connor

Connor's ranking takes a bit of a hit because he doesn't hit (he matched a career high of 18 last season) and plus/minus (he's never reached double digits). However, you should never worry about plus/minus at the draft, and he's good enough in all the other categories to make up for his deficiency in hits. His points-per-game mark has increased every season and he reached 1.03 points-per-game last season. He should finish in the top 10 in goals and is a threat to score 40 goals in an 82-game season. He was on pace for 276 shots and 20 power-play points last year. He's on the top power-play unit, plus he reached 21 minutes a night last year. He's also playing alongside elite centre Mark Scheifele. All this bodes well for an awesome year.

1. Erik Karlsson

There are a few signs in favour of Karlsson having a bounce-back campaign. Last year, Karlsson missed the season opener for the birth of his daughter (born two weeks early), which must have been stressful. (I recommend this article on the Athletic from last year that details the birth of their daughter and what the couple was going through at the time.) That's a lot of added stress that can take a toll on a player.

Physically, Karlsson has dealt with multiple injuries over the last few years, and his points-per-game mark dropped to 0.71 last year. That's still almost a 60-point pace over 82 games. Most defensemen can only dream of reaching that mark, and that's a low for Karlsson, which shows how productive he is. He's one of the players that will benefit from a later start to the season, as he hasn't played a game since Feb. 14, giving him more time to heal for the start of the 2020-21 season. It was only a few short years ago that Karlsson was the top defenseman taken in one-year drafts, quite often in the first round. To see him as the 13th-ranked defenseman in Yahoo this year is a little off-putting. Karlsson is a high-risk, high-reward player that should bounce back in this shortened season.

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