Eastern Edge: Risers and fallers in the East, including Hischier, Pulock, and White – Part 3
Brennan Des
2020-12-15
In this week's Eastern Edge, we'll continue looking at risers and fallers across teams in the Eastern Conference. This will be the third of four parts and we'll cover the Devils, Islanders, Rangers and Senators. Check out the links below to get caught up!
Part One: Boston, Buffalo, Carolina, Columbus
Part Two: Detroit, Florida, Montreal
As a quick reminder, the inspiration for this series came from Wild West writer Grant Campbell, who discussed risers and fallers in the Western Conference a few weeks ago. He highlighted players with rising fantasy value ('risers') and declining fantasy value ('fallers') from each team in the West. Risers are players that you'd want to keep on your fantasy roster, while fallers are players you may want to offload in the near future. I highly recommend you give Grant's article a read here!
New Jersey
Risers – Nico Hischier, Damon Severson, Nikita Gusev, Jack Hughes
Fallers – P.K. Subban, Travis Zajac,
Gusev's NHL career got off to a slow start as he managed just five points through his first 13 games last year. He bounced back in a big way, tallying 39 points in his final 53 appearances – which translates to 60 points over 82 games. Gusev averaged fewer than 15 minutes of ice time last season – a number which I expect to increase in the coming years. As Gusev's role increases, his offensive production and fantasy value should follow suit.
Nico Hischier's career got off to a great start when he tallied 52 points during his rookie campaign in 2017-2018. In year two, his role with the team increased as his ice time jumped from 16 to 18 minutes. His offensive output also saw slight improvement in the process as he paced for 56 points. Last season – Hischier's third year in the NHL – included a whole lot of change that didn't exactly help the young center perform to his potential. Line mate Taylor Hall and captain Andy Greene were both traded away, while head coach John Hynes was fired. More stability in the coming years should help Hischier's fantasy value rise as he continues to develop and establish himself in New Jersey.
Severson tallied 19 points in his final 28 appearances of the 2019-2020 campaign, which translates to 55 points over a full season. Notably, nine of those 19 points were scored with the man advantage as Severson took on a more prominent power-play role while Subban was struggling and Vatanen was injured/traded to Carolina. Severson could see his offensive production improve in the coming years if he can grab a strong hold of that top power-play role.
We've grown so used to rookies lighting it up as soon as they enter the league, we've forgotten that most players need time to develop and grow into their potential. Jack Hughes managed an underwhelming 28-point pace in his first NHL season, but his offensive ability is undeniable, and his fantasy value will continue to rise as he continues to improve in the coming years.
Subban being listed as a 'faller' is more of a testament to his past success than a slight to his future ability. Subban's most productive years came with the Canadiens, when he was seeing 70- to 80-percent of the team's power play time and pacing for 60 to 70 points a season. Averaging roughly five minutes of power-play time per game allowed him to eclipse 20 PPPs a year in his prime. Unfortunately, it's hard to see him being trusted with such a prominent role at this stage of career. He failed to capitalize on his chances with the man advantage last year with the Devils as Sami Vatanen took over as the team's top power-play defenseman. Now that Vatanen is in Carolina, Subban will probably get another shot on the power-play, but he'll certainly have some competition from guys like Damon Severson and Will Butcher. I think it's fair to say that Subban will bounce back from last season's career-low 22-point pace, but a return to 70-point form is much less likely.
Zajac managed back-to-back 60-point seasons early in his career, but he hasn't been able to surpass the 50-point mark since then. Now that he's 35, it seems fair to say his best seasons are behind him. At the same time, it's important to appreciate his long career in New Jersey which began in 2007 – that's 13 years and counting with the Devils.
NY Islanders
Risers – Brock Nelson, Ryan Pulock, Anthony Beauvillier, Mathew Barzal
Fallers – Nick Leddy
Nelson paced for a career-high 65 points during the 2019-2020 regular season and followed that up with a 67-point pace during the playoffs. That impressive level of offensive production was fueled by increased ice time as Nelson was skating roughly 19 minutes a night. In previous years, he was seeing around 15 to 16 minutes of ice-time and scoring at a more modest 40-point pace. He's proven he can handle the increased workload and should solidify his status as a 60-point player in the coming seasons.
Pulock has scored at roughly a 40-point pace so far in his young NHL career – an impressive pace considering he hasn't really seen a major role on the power play. With Devon Toews traded to Colorado, Pulock should see a greater share of the team's time with the man advantage. The Islanders have split time between their two units relatively evenly in the past, but there's still room for Pulock to see a significant increase in opportunity. He could very well go from seeing 40-percent of the team's total power-play time, to somewhere around 55 or 60-percent. That kind of increased opportunity should help boost his offensive output in the coming years.
Nick Leddy's greatest offensive showing came during the 2016-2017 campaign, when he tallied 46 points in 81 games. 15 of those points came with the man advantage as Leddy benefitted from seeing nearly 66-percent of the team's total power-play time. Now that Ryan Pulock has emerged as an offensively gifted defenseman in New York, it's hard to see Leddy reclaiming his spot as the team's top power-play blueliner. Last season, Leddy saw just 28-percent of the team's total time with the man advantage – registering just three points on the power-play.
NY Rangers
Risers – Tony DeAngelo, Pavel Buchnevich
Fallers – Jack Johnson
Tony DeAngelo put up 53 points through 68 games last year and sat fourth in scoring among defensemen. Nineteen of those points came with the man advantage as he benefitted from seeing 58-percent of the team's total power-play time. He features on a star-studded unit in New York, which also includes the dynamic duo of Mika Zibanejad and Artemi Panarin. The Rangers have added to their offensive talent with 2020 first overall pick Alexis Lafrenière, ensuring that DeAngelo will be sharing the ice with some talented forwards in the coming years. With that being said, he will have come competition as Adam Fox is also very capable of racking up points from the blueline.
I had almost forgotten that Jack Johnson was a reliable 35-40-point player earlier in his career. Unfortunately, he doesn't seem capable of that kind of production anymore as he's paced for less than 15 points in each of his last three seasons. He'll find himself at the bottom of the depth chart in New York due to the Rangers' abundance of talent on the blueline.
Ottawa
Risers – Brady Tkachuk, Colin White, Thomas Chabot
Fallers – Artem Anisimov,
As first-round draft picks, the bar is set high for Tkahuck and Chabot. They've already had strong showings at the NHL level, and they continue to improve as they gain more experience. Chabot burst onto the scene with 55 points in 70 games during his sophomore season (2018-2019) – a 64-point pace. Tkachuk has paced for 50 points in each of his two seasons in the NHL, racking up impressive hit and shot totals in the process. Both Chabot and Tkachuk will see their fantasy value improve as the team around them continues to get better in the coming years.
Colin White has just 153 games of NHL experience under his belt and still has plenty of time to develop and break out. He showed a lot of promise in his rookie campaign, tallying 41 points in 71 games. He benefits from a lack of competition at the center position in Ottawa and should find himself on one of the team's top two lines going forward. In addition, White is expected to maintain a prominent role on the power-play, a role which will become more valuable in the coming years as the team continues to improve and the power play eventually gets more dangerous.
During the 2016-2017 campaign, Anisimov put up 45 points in 64 games – a 58-point pace! That impressive level of offensive production was largely fueled by his line mates in Chicago – the dynamic duo of Artemi Panarin and Patrick Kane. In addition, Anisimov was seeing plenty of ice time as he skated 18 minutes a night. In contrast, he skated less than 14 minutes per game last year – his first season in Ottawa. Aside from that one impressive season, Anisimov has been a 40-point player for most of his career. It's unlikely he ever sees that kind of ice time or line mate quality again, which is why he's listed as a faller.