Capped: Team-by-team buy-and-sell – Part 6

Alexander MacLean

2020-12-24

Week five is snowed in and it is now Christmas time. If you don't get exactly what you were hoping for under the Christmas tree, then read on and see if you can do a little shopping for yourself. This week we're covering Edmonton, Detroit, Dallas, and Columbus.

To reiterate for the uninitiated, this multi-week feature will cover each NHL team, analyzing one player to buy and one to sell. These recommendations will be based on their performance versus cap hit. That means in non-cap leagues, some of these suggestions may not be as relevant, but that doesn't mean the analysis isn't relevant. Generally, these players will either be riding new contracts into the season or be expected to have a large shift in value, for one reason or another. We went alphabetically last year, so this time we're going for the reverse.

The previous parts of this series can be found here.

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Edmonton Oilers

Buy: Dominik Kahun

Current Cap Hit: $975,000

The Edmonton Oilers were the perfect spot for Kahun to sign, as he will fit in either with the best player in the world, or his countryman Leon Draisaitl. Kahun has played most of his two-year career on third lines, but for the approximately 30 games that he played with Evgeni Malkin (his only real top-tier line mate) Kahun was up from under a point every second game to two points in every three games. If he can keep up close to that pace this season as a top line winger in EDM, that's at least a 50-point pace, with the upside for more.

 

Sell: Kyle Turris

Current Cap Hit: $1,650,000

Kyle Turris is one of the players who saw his stock rise to an infinite degree this offseason – from less than zero to valuable as a depth skater. At some point, his perceived value due to not being locked into that terrible contract surpassed what he can actually bring to the table for the Oilers. Turris struggled in every role with the Predators over two and a half seasons. Unfortunately for him, with the Oilers' offensive centre depth there won't be enough to go around to support him as a viable fantasy option to the point that his owners will be expecting. He may still be able to provide some value on the $1.65 million AAV, but the expectations right now are higher than where the future production will be.

 

Detroit Red Wings

Buy: Bobby Ryan

Current Cap Hit: $1,000,000

I wrote about Bobby Ryan not too long ago here, but I just wanted to highlight once more that he is someone to be getting on board with for the Red Wings, as there aren't too many options there. A 40- to 50-point season makes sense depending on how sheltered his usage is, but if the second line ends up being Robby Fabbri centring Ryan and Filip Zadina, they are going to get the easy treatment by the coaching staff. In the right situation, Ryan could really take off, and the likelihood is that he moves on to a contender at the deadline to a team that may shift him down the lineup. So, if you do acquire him then beware that his value may dip again after the trade deadline. Ryan is more of a flip than a buy.

 

Sell: Filip Hronek

Current Cap Hit: $714,166

Usually, I would advise against selling players that I have in the top 20 of the cap league skater rankings. However, Hronek's situation there is quite precarious, and it would be best if his cap league owners got out now while the value is at its peak. First off, Hronek is due a new contract at season's end, and as soon as that contract is signed it comes with the added negative connotation of a cost increase that is inevitable anyways. Secondly, a large part of Hronek's value comes from his stranglehold on the top powerplay duties which may also be coming to an end sooner than we may like. At the latest, by the start of the 2021-2022 season Moritz Seider should be running the top power play. At the earliest, Seider could make an impact this season, where he would be sheltered into an offensive zone start and top powerplay role. He is more talented than Hronek, and the Wings don't have much to lose by letting him prove that.

 

Dallas Stars

Buy: Jason Dickinson

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Current Cap Hit: $1,500,000

Sometimes you just get a feeling that a certain player has another level and it is something that is tough to explain why. Well, Dickinson is one of those players for me, and at a very small cap hit he makes for a low risk bet to break through. With Tyler Seguin out to start the season, there is a full time slot open in the top-six, where Dickinson filled in last year on occasion. He's set to hit his breakout threshold in the middle of season, and I differ from Dobber here in that I think he's primed to jump from his energy line role into becoming a Jaime Benn-lite.

 

Sell: Jamie Benn

Current Cap Hit: $9,500,000

Speak of the devil! Benn might be a bit of a tougher sell with the flat cap, though he did put up a strong cup run in the postseason bubble, and not every sell job is the same. Benn's days of being a multi-cat beast with 60+ points are likely over, but that doesn't mean he can't contribute in the right spot. The problem is that his contribution vs his cap hit isn't going to be worth keeping around. In one league, I moved him for Erik Karlsson and a future piece. Having the cap space to take a chance on a boom/bust piece like Karlsson vs the higher floor/lower ceiling of Benn, plus getting an extra piece in return made a lot of sense to me. Sometimes the best way to sell a high-salaried player isn't by trying to get a boatload of smaller assets, it's to find a different higher salaried player that fits your team and getting a bonus piece on the side.

 

Columbus Blue Jackets

Buy: Mikhail Grigorenko

Current Cap Hit: $1,200,000

Returning to the NHL is Mikhail Grigorenko after signing a contract way back in April (which feels like years ago at this point) that was rejected, and then by July it flew under the radar when it was approved. The 26-year-old's last NHL season was back in 2016-2017, and he has since been dominating in the KHL. Grigorenko is joining a team that has deep, but not top-heavy forward core. He becomes one of the more dynamic options in Columbus, and along with Oliver Bjorkstrand, and should see his fair share of offensive deployment along with at least second powerplay time. He's flying a little under the radar, and getting a 40-point pace from a player making $1.2 million that is likely a free agent in a lot of leagues is a big win.

 

Sell: Seth Jones

Current Cap Hit: $5,400,000

The playoffs were a coming out party for the Jones supporters. Unfortunately, Jones is now being overrated on both ends of the puck. On the defensive end, I'll leave it to the analytics crowd to explain further if you want to dive into that. We're here for the offence and Seth Jones isn't going to be able to exceed your expectations this year. In fantasy leagues Jones is valued as a 50-point defenceman, and on his current contract that would make him an excellent asset. However, Jones' last 50-point season was back in 2017-2018, which was also the last time he saw more powerplay time than Zach Werenski, and last season's point pace was his lowest of his full seasons in Columbus. Without the brunt of the powerplay time, Jones can be counted on as a 40-point guy, but not much more than that.

 

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All statistics are all pulled from FrozenTools, and all contract info from Capfriendly. Follow me on Twitter @alexdmaclean.

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