In this week's Eastern Edge, we'll discuss players that are being undervalued and overvalued in Yahoo fantasy drafts so far. These classifications were made using average draft positions (ADPs) in Yahoo leagues, which you can check out for yourself over here. A few articles across the website have tackled this topic recently, so make sure to check out Ian's Ramblings of player's being drafted too high and too low, as well as Logan's coverage of late-round value at right-wing.

Overvalued

Sebastian Aho

In Yahoo leagues, Aho's average draft position (ADP) currently sits at 12. On average, he's being selected ahead of notable names like Sidney Crosby, Mika Zibanejad and Evgeni Malkin. Perhaps Aho is being favoured over those guys because injury concerns hold more weight this season, with absences made more costly by the condensed schedule. A one-month absence means missing roughly 20-percent of the season. In a normal year, a one-month absence would mean missing around 14-percent of the campaign. As such, I can understand why injury concerns would be of additional importance to some managers. However, I personally think that injuries are too random and unpredictable to prominently factor into player evaluations. There's a short list of players that may be more prone to future injury as a result of past injuries. However, outside of those players, I don't think you should place too much weight on injury history when assessing fantasy value. I apologize for the tangent, but I thought it was important to highlight a possible explanation for Aho's high ADP – he's displayed a high level of durability in his young career, missing a total of four games through four years in the NHL. With that being said, I still can't justify drafting Aho with the 12^th overall pick. There are arguably 11 centers that could outproduce Aho this season, never mind the additional wingers, defenseman and goaltenders that should also provide more value. Now, my intention here isn't to discount Aho as a fantasy asset, because he'll likely score at or slightly above a point-per-game pace in 2021. However, given the abundance of talented center options across the NHL, I'm not eager to spend such an early draft pick on Aho.

Patrice Bergeron

I think there are a few factors which should have reduced Bergeron's perceived fantasy value heading into drafts this year. For starters, he's 35 years old and age-related decline is becoming a more prominent factor. However, Bergeron has aged like fine wine thus far, with his most productive seasons coming in recent years, after he turned 30. So, I guess you'd be somewhat justified in believing he'll defy Father Time yet again in 2021. Regardless, there are two more factors which limit my enthusiasm for Bergeron this year – both of which relate to his supporting cast. Firstly, he'll be missing superstar line mate David Pastrnak to start the season as the Czech winger continues to recover from offseason hip surgery. Boston's top trio of Bergeron, Pastrnak and Brad Marchand is so dangerous because each player has a unique skillset, and those individual skillsets complement each other very well. I think it's fair to say the line becomes less lethal without Pastrnak's goal scoring abilities, so Bergeron's offensive output may be hindered through the first few weeks of 2021. In addition, the team's top power-play unit will look different this year without Torey Krug. A fair bit of Bergeron's production in recent years has come with the man advantage, but we can't take that for granted this year. Matt Grzelcyk and/or Charlie McAvoy are expected to step up in Krug's absence, but there is some uncertainty as to whether they can run the power play as effectively as Krug did. Things will be especially difficult to start the season as they'll have to navigate without Pastrnak, whose strong shot made him an effective trigger man on the power play.

Despite the aforementioned factors, Bergeron currently holds an ADP of 42, indicating that he's being drafted before Mark Scheifele, Sean Couturier and Ryan O'Reilly in the average Yahoo league. In other words, public perception of Bergeron remains high, so you'll probably have to spend an early pick to add him to your roster. The way I see it, there are quite a few centers who could outperform Bergeron this year, so I'm not willing to use such a valuable pick on him. If you really want to add him to your roster, you might get more value out of trading from him after the first few games of the season, when we'll be closer to Pastrnak's return.

Ilya Samsonov

I don't want to spend too much time on goalies in this article because we spent last week's Eastern Edge discussing goalies and their fantasy hockey value. I'll reiterate that Samsonov is being overvalued in fantasy leagues as too much weight is being placed on the fact that he's a starting goaltender on a good team. He has just 26 games of NHL experience, through which he's posted a 2.55 GAA and .913 save percentage. His current ADP is 43 as he's being drafted ahead of guys like Carey Price, Frederik Andersen and Igor Shesterkin. At present, I think Samsonov is being drafted way too early. He'd have to have an outstanding season to justify his current ADP – a more realistic above-average performance wouldn't provide the value one would expect from the 43^rd overall pick.

Undervalued

Linus Ullmark

While we already discussed Ullmark last week, I wanted to bring more attention to the Sabres' netminder because his current ADP indicates he's still flying under the radar. On average, Ullmark is currently the 31^st goalie off the board in Yahoo Leagues, with an ADP of 162. I'm a strong believer in Buffalo this season as I think they've made a number of important moves to strengthen their roster. In addition, I think a few of the team's young guns – most notably Rasmus Dahlin – will take important steps in their development this year. Speaking of Dahlin, he's also being undervalued in fantasy drafts with an ADP of 89. We're talking about one of the most promising defensive prospects we've seen in a while, who put up a 56-point pace last year and will feature on a power-play unit with Jack Eichel and Taylor Hall this year. I'm ecstatic if I can get Dahlin with the 89^th pick in my fantasy drafts. Back to Ullmark, I think he did enough last year to take over as the team's starter. He won 17 of his 34 games and posted an impressive .915 save percentage behind a struggling team in Buffalo. He's being taken so late in drafts that he makes for a great low-risk, high-reward option in fantasy leagues.

Jakub Voracek

Heading into this season, if you asked me to predict Voracek's performance without looking at any other resources, I probably wouldn't provide the most optimistic outlook. My instincts say that he's a good player, but his role is gradually decreasing as Philadelphia's young talent continues to earn more ice time. As I look for evidence to justify my preconceived notions, I notice that Voracek averaged 17 minutes of ice time last season, representing a significant drop from the 19 minutes he had averaged in recent years. Despite the reduced role, his offensive output wasn't affected – he paced for 67 points last year after a 69-point pace the year before (when he was averaging 19 minutes). Although his overall ice-time decreased, Voracek remained a prominent fixture on the team's power-play and should maintain that position in 2021.

The main takeaway here is that Voracek managed to produce at a high level even though his overall role decreased. I don't think he sees another significant reduction in ice time during the 2021 campaign, so he'll have the same opportunity to produce at a 65-point pace once again. Now that we've established a point projection for Voracek, it becomes all the more surprising that his current Yahoo ADP is 163. That's way too late for a proven 60 to 65-point player! He's fallen into a tier with players like Craig Smith and Brandon Saad who've never broken the 60-point barrier before. I guess Voracek's history of strong play is being overshadowed by the excitement and mystery that comes with players joining new teams.

Nikita Gusev

His NHL career got off to a slow start as he managed just seven points in his first 16 games with the Devils. However, he bounced back with 37 points in his next 50 games, which translates to 60 points over 82 games. As such, Gusev's overall numbers from last season are weighed down by that initial adjustment period – which shouldn't be a problem in 2021. In addition, new head coach Lindy Ruff is bringing a fast-paced system to the team which should help offensively gifted players like Gusev rack up the points. I'm very optimistic about Gusev this year and I wouldn't be at all surprised to see him score at a 65-70-point pace. With Gusev's current ADP of 183, you'll have to seek legal representation after stealing him in the later rounds of your draft.