What the Sabres will do with their power play is going to determine the fantasy value for a lot of key players. It is all well and good that Jeff Skinner can now play with Eric Staal, but without prime PP minutes, it's fair to wonder how much upside there is.

We got some clarity on the situation:

#Sabres taking some PP reps today:

Reinhart
Eichel – Hall – Olofsson
Dahllin

Skinner
Miller-Thompson-Staal
Ristolainen

— Jourdon LaBarber (@JourdonLaBarber) January 7, 2021

Don't forget about Sammy Reinhart. He has played to a 58 points/82 games pace the last three years and looks to get Skinner/Staal at even strength and top PP minutes.

*

It appears as if Auston Matthews is going to take some PK duties this year. This is a bit concerning for me. I get that, in a nutshell, players getting more ice time is a good thing for fantasy. What I worry about is that Matthews was playing over 22 minutes a night after Christmas last year. If he were to go from 22:18 to 23:48 while adding 90 seconds of PK time per night, then great. But if he were to go from 22:18 to 22:25 while adding 90 seconds of PK time per night, well, not great. That means the PK time came at the expense of EV or PP time, and that's bad for us (unless you play in an SHP league).

Imagining Matthews playing 24 minutes a night is a bridge too far, so it seems likely that the PK time will come at the expense of PP/EV time. It may not be 90 seconds, it may be 60 or 45, but any amount of time is a step in the wrong direction for fantasy. To be clear, this isn't a massive downgrade or anything. It is just something of which to be cognizant.

*

An important line update:

Today's #sens main group

Tkachuk – L.Brown – Dadonov
Chalpik – White – Batherson
Galchekyuk – Anisimov – Watson
Paul – Norris – C.Brown
Kelly – Paquette – Balcers

Chabot – Gudbranson
Reilly – Zaitsev
Wolanin – J.Brown
Coburn – Zub

Murray
Hogberg

— Brent Wallace (@tsn_wally) January 7, 2021

We have been wondering whom will be the centre for Brady Tkachuk this year, and it looks like it may be Logan Brown to start.

More importantly for Tkachuk, I think, is that he's going to get Evgenii Dadonov as a winger. He will be by far the best winger that Tkachuk has had to play with, which is exciting as far as upside is concerned. I am not convinced Brown is long for the top line (he's likely a placeholder for Derek Stepan, who is in quarantine protocol), but as long as Tkachuk/Dadonov stay together, that should be a very productive combo this year.

*

Average Draft Position data in fantasy hockey is really hard to come by. Accurate ADP data, anyway. It is just a function of fantasy hockey being so much less popular than the other major American sports and there not being enough resources.

There is the National Fantasy Hockey Championship, which runs a few different leagues like auctions and best balls. They also have ADP data, though, and these are all leagues for money, ranging from $25-$1000. While we just have a dozen drafts to go off from the last five weeks, it'll help give us a guide at the least. The data isn't perfect – we still have Nikita Kucherov as a first rounder, for example – but I think it's worth venturing into what people outside of our normal bubble think. Best as I can recollect from my league last year, we're using G/A/SOG/PPP/HIT. Or, more or less, the same as what we'll have for Yahoo! Standard leagues.

📢 advertisement:

Brady Tkachuk

Over on Yahoo!, we see him ranked at the end of the third round/start of the fourth round in a 12-team league. Here, he's ranked in the middle of the second round and has even gone in the first round. The difference, I assume, is no plus/minus on NFHC as compared to standard Yahoo!, so the discrepancy makes a bit of sense. But even those playing with plus/minus need to understand the upside Tkachuk has here as long as his plus/minus isn't nuked into oblivion. There are maybe two guys in the NHL who could walk to 200 hits and 200 shots in 56 games, and Tkachuk is one of them.

Jonathan Huberdeau

I am cooling on the Florida Panthers the closer we get to the season. Over on Yahoo!, he's still being drafted at the start of the third round – give or take – but over on the NFHC, he's still going outside the top-50. I think the latter makes a lot more sense. This is a guy who doesn't hit much and isn't a massive volume shooter, but is being ranked ahead of, or close to, Max Pacioretty, Matthew Tkachuk, and J.T. Miller. He is not in that tier. He is in the next tier with Gaudreau/Hall/Giroux. Let other people over-draft the Panthers winger while you find more balanced players elsewhere.

Kris Letang

Over at the NFHC, Letang has about half the ADP (36) that he does on Yahoo! (70). There aren't a lot of defencemen that are threats for 45 points, three shots per game, and 1.5 hits per game, and Letang is one of them. The problem, as always, is his health. He missed eight games last year, 17 the year before that, and three the year before that. That means he's averaged missing nearly 10 games a season the last three years, and those are generally considered healthy seasons for him. It is a matter of the risk people are willing to assume. If he can play 55 games, Letang has the upside to be the #1 defenceman in fantasy. History tells us, though, that he'll player fewer than 50 games and there is downside beyond that. This is a case where I don't really agree with the NFHC ADP and think Yahoo!'s more accurately reflects the risk.

Tom Wilson

This is another guy, like Letang, who is going considerably higher in the NFHC (44) than he is on Yahoo! (90) and that presents a buying opportunity for those playing on Yahoo!. Last year, Wilson was a top-25 player in banger leagues, doing so with just 44 points in 68 games. He is Tkachuk-lite, in that he won't bring as many shots, or maybe as many hits, but we're also getting a big discount for that. Wilson is somewhat one-dimensional in this sense, but he's a threat for 20 goals and 200 hits in a shortened season, and not many guys have that upside. Grab him in the sixth or seventh on Yahoo! and reap the rewards.

Mikko Rantanen

Over on Yahoo!, Rantanen is typically going in the middle of the second round, ahead of guys like Svechnikov, Marner, and Guentzel. Not that it is terrible when comparing talent, but Rantanen doesn't shoot as much as Svech or Guentzel, so he has to wildly outscore them to be more valuable in fantasy. To pay off an ADP of mid-first round in a 12-team league, he has to pro-rate his season to something similar to Artemi Panarin's 2019-20. That means Rantanen doing in 2021 what he did in 2018-19 (pro-rated to 66 points in 56 games) is not enough. Over at the NFHC, he's going in the fourth round, which feels a lot more appropriate for a guy who doesn't hit or shoot.

Darnell Nurse

I am not sure what, exactly, is going on here. On the NFHC, Nurse is going sometime in the 5/6 rounds. Over on Yahoo!, he's not even going as a top-25 defenceman. Or to-30. Or even top-35. This is a guy coming off back-to-back years with over two shots per game and about two hits per game. Those are monster totals. The division is soft defensively, he plays on a great offensive team, and has proven to be a reliable 30 points/82 games player. Nurse doesn't need PP1 minutes to be great; he was a top-10 defenceman in standard Yahoo! leagues last year with just 33 points in 71 games because of what he can bring across the board. Anytime around the eighth or ninth round on Yahoo! is wonderful value, and the later the better.

Frederik Andersen

There really isn't much discrepancy among the goalies, except, for some reason, with Freddie Andersen. On the NFHC, he's going somewhere in the 3/4 rounds, the third goaltender off the board. Conversely, on Yahoo!, he's going in the 5/6 rounds and is around the 10^th goalie off the board. I am someone that doesn't get super hung up on goaltending, but it feels like the 10^th goalie off the board is too low. I think he's poised for a rebound season and the Leafs should be able to rack up the wins in that division. The worry is ratios, but I think those will be fine enough along with the bevy of victories. I would split the difference and have him somewhere around the fifth or sixth goalie off the board.

Shea Theodore

Over at the NFHC, Pietrangelo is the fifth defenceman off the board while Theodore is just outside the top-20. Conversely, over at Yahoo!, Pietrangelo is the seventh defenceman off the board while Theodore is 18^th, so it's a bit closer. The concern with Theodore is peripherals. He had just 20 hits in 71 games last year and has never reached 30 in a season. A lack of hits in banger leagues means a lot of points are necessary, and with Pietro around, getting a lot of points may be tough. This is a situation where the league settings play a big factor and for that reason, I'm not sure Theodore can be drafted much higher than the 20^th defenceman off the board in any banger format.