Ramblings: Puck Drop Eve; waiver madness; Florida PP; bold predictions – January 12
Michael Clifford
2021-01-12
K'Andre Miller starting in the NHL is looking like a real possibility, and beyond that, on the top pair with Jacob Trouba. I have reservations about his readiness for this type of role but if the Rangers think he's ready, we kind of just have to go with it. We are going to find out fairly quickly whether or not he's ready for the role.
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For anyone doing a last-minute draft, grab our 2021 Dobber Hockey Fantasy Guide now in the Dobber Shop! It has been updated all through camp so our readers have the most current information necessary to create an edge in their drafts.
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Keep tabs on waivers today as they clear at noon. There were over 100 players to hit waivers because of taxi squads – some notables like Tyler Johnson and Oliver Kylington – and a lot of them are proven NHLers or young guys that just don't have a spot. (Reminder not every player needs to clear waivers, some can just be outright loaned.) There could be a lot of movement in the next 12 hours. The full list can be viewed here.
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One guy was claimed yesterday and it was Noah Juulsen, put on waivers by the Habs and claimed by the Panthers. The first rounder from 2015 hasn't been able to establish himself as a pro and the team has had its issues on the back-end. Maybe he just needs a change of scenery.
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A couple months ago, I mused that Nick Bonino is probably the best centre that Kevin Fiala could end up with in Minnesota, but Fiala may be stuck with Johansson. Well:
#mnwild lines w/ Thursday’s opener in LA same from start of camp
Parise-Bjugstad-Kaprizov
Johansson-Bonino-Fiala
Greenway-Eriksson Ek-Foligno
Sturm-Rask-HartmanBrodin-Spurgeon
Suter-Dumba
Soucy-Pateryn
HuntTalbot
KahkonenWild will keep 21 on active roster + taxi squad
— Michael Russo (@RussoHockey) January 11, 2021
Hopefully, Mats Zuccarello ends up on the second line at some point but this isn't terrible news for Fiala. He'll get soft deployments and a centre who is proficient at finding wingers (although not great). It is pretty good news for Kaprizov, though, who is my pick for the Calder. Which leads us to…
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Our Dobber Panel for the 2021 season was released yesterday. I wanted to share my thoughts on a few things.
I have Connor Hellebuyck as listed to disappoint because he's being locked in as a top-3 goalie and that's worrisome. He has the workload, yes, and he's great, yes. He is also on a poor defensive team and will face McDavid/Draisaitl or Matthews/Tavares every third game. That doesn't even get into the revamped Montreal offence or Vancouver's terrifying power play. Hellebuyck was the best goalie on the planet last year and had a GAA outside the top-10 and a save percentage tied for eighth. Anything less than superhuman gives us fairly pedestrian numbers. I will bet against a superhuman effort from any goalie, any season.
The East is going to be a barn-burner of a division. As noted, there are five different teams picked as the winner among are panellists, meaning at least one picked to win the division won't even make playoffs. That is going to be a lot of fun to watch.
Only one pick for Josi for the Norris (by Rick Roos). I think it is eminently possible we see the Preds get to the postseason off a Herculean effort from Josi. That puts not only the Norris in play, but the Hart as well.
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If I am not mistaken, this is the third look that Florida's top PP unit has had so far in camp:
#FlaPanthers kicking off today's practice with special teams work.
Top PP unit looks like Huberdeau, Barkov, Duclair, Hornqvist and Ekblad. pic.twitter.com/SKxpSVAs0Y
— Jameson Olive (@JamesonCoop) January 11, 2021
I remember seeing one with Wennberg and if I'm recalling correctly, the one before that had Hornqvist but not Duclair. This is probably going to be a recurring theme with the Panthers: Huberdeau/Barkov are your locks, and likely Ekblad as well because it seems Yandle has fallen off the map completely. The other two spots, I presume, are going to see some rotation.
Of interest on the second PP unit is that Brady Keeper is running it right now. Not sure how long that lasts but that's an important role for a depth piece in deep fantasy league.
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The season starts tomorrow, which means not much time left for me to get some hot takes off. How about a few, or many, bold predictions for the year? Most will be fantasy-related, some won't be, but they'll all be related to hockey and we'll try to keep it positive. Let us begin.
Filip Zadina reaches 20 goals
While this will be his first full NHL season, I believe he's more than ready for the challenge. He has 25 goals in his last 80 AHL games and looked every bit ready towards the end of his stint last season. Adequate line mates are the only real concern for me.
Anaheim makes the playoffs
There are three pretty clear favourite for playoffs in the West and then a fourth likely-ish one with Minnesota. Only the Wild don't really have any centre depth and are relying on young players/prospects for the season. Sounds like another team whose name is in the title of this sub-section, only they have John Gibson.
Nick Suzuki falls just shy of a point-per-game
At the end of the season, I think people are going to be mad at themselves for letting Suzuki fall as long as he did in many drafts. He was on pace for nearly 50 points at the pause with nearly a hit per game. He is going to be leaned on heavily this year as the team is making a push for what it hopes is a deep Cup run.
MacKenzie Blackwood finishes as a top-10 fantasy goalie
With the news that Corey Crawford was retiring, Blackwood suddenly became a very important fantasy commodity again. They are in a very tough division but this team – when healthy – should be able to boast two decent scoring lines and have vastly improved the blue line. If only because he should get as many games as he can handle, Blackwood is of a lot of interest.
Denis Gurianov leads the Dallas Stars in goals
I said recently on Steve Laidlaw's podcast (you can listen here) that Gurianov is a guy that strikes me as loving to shoot the puck. He had 20 goals in 64 games last year playing third/fourth line minutes. Now that he's effectively locked into a top-6 role, he could expand on that goal scoring even in fewer games played. It could be a rough year for the Stars, particularly with the way their camp has gone so far, but I suspect Gurianov drafters will be happy at the end of the season.
Morgan Rielly leads all defencemen in points
What concerns me about this is Toronto seems to be effectively splitting their two PP units, and we'd like to have Rielly eat all the top PP minutes if possible. Regardless, he's going to play heavy minutes on a great offensive team in a weak defensive division, and he's a great offensive player in his own right. I think we end up seeing him around or just over a point-per-game this year.
Kirill Kaprizov reaches 50 points
For all the hype around Kaprizov, I am stunned at his draft slotting. I have now done five drafts, from as shallow as 8 teams and 160 players drafted to 12- and 14-team leagues with hundreds of players drafted. I have yet to see Kaprizov go anywhere near the top-100, and has often been around 150 or later. I am not one to often venture out on a limb, but his price is too low.
Robert Thomas finishes second in St. Louis scoring
As with others, the concern is power-play minutes here, but Thomas finished fifth among Blues forwards in scoring last year and did so playing third-line minutes with middling players. Now, he gets the chance to add 3-4 minutes of ice time per game to his repertoire and also gets competent line mates to play with. What is he going to do now that he has a near-full tool belt? I am excited to find out.
Oliver Bjorkstrand finishes top-5 in league goal scoring
I think most smart people – and that means you, fair Dobber reader – are on board with a continued Bjorkstrand breakout. The only real question is what does that level of breakout entail. Well, he played 19:42 per game over his final 15 games last year. The added ice time on top of his performance would mean around a 40-goal performance in an 82-game season. I think we see him and PLD have big years this year.
Joel Farabee leads the Flyers in goals
Even though he had just eight goals in 52 games last year, Farabee's shot rate put him near the 75th percentile of the league and he had good transition numbers. A solid year for a rookie. Now, it seems like he's got a top-6 role and should land with plenty playmakers. The power play is the issue because he may not have a role but this wouldn't be a bold prediction without some obstacles. I think we see a big year ahead.