Saturday’s NHL Picks: Leaf the North

Flip Livingstone

2021-02-13

Another week of an even 3-3 showing has my overall record for the 2021 season sitting at a somewhat respectable 9-9. I do want to point out that I was one goal away from my first Gold, Silver, and Bronze sweep of the year, but given everything that is going on with teams battling the COVID-19 effect, I am still OK with an even start to what is quickly becoming a crapshoot of an NHL campaign.

Moving on to Saturday's board and Hockey Day in Canada for those puck heads north of the border. Ten games on the slate today (despite three postponements) that kickoff at 3 p.m. ET in the nation's capital with the Ottawa Senators looking to snap their four-game losing skid against the Winnipeg Jets.

With only two games on the NHL schedule Friday night, most teams will likely have their No. 1 netminders manning the blue paint, so make sure you are doing your research and betting accordingly. Let's grind out another respectable week and get this loot train rolling. Good luck!

2021 record:

Gold: 1-2
Silver: 2-1
Bronze: 2-1
Side bets: 4-5

Overall: 9-9

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Gold Pick

Montreal Canadiens @ Toronto Maple Leafs – Pick: Maple Leafs

As of Saturday morning, the Maple Leafs are the toast of the NHL, leading all clubs in points (23) on the heels of a four-game winning streak. Look, this is the classic case of two teams heading in opposite directions. Don't get me wrong, the Habs deserve some credit for a hot start with newly-added guys like Josh Anderson and Tyler Toffoli lighting the lamp with regularity since joining the club in the offseason. However, Montreal's last four games have left something to be desired.

Bottom line: they have not been good over the past week. A 1-3-0 record, which includes a loss and a one-goal squeaker victory against the lowly Ottawa Senators, has the Canadiens trending downward in a division that is currently Toronto's to lose. Before we get too hype over the Leafs excellent start, it should be noted that Frederik Andersen is playing a lot of hockey right now, and with backup goaltender Jack Campbell still out for the near future, the strain on Toronto's No. 1 guy will start to be a factor in such a short season – let's be honest, ain't nobody got time for Michael Hutchinson starts.

Montreal is 4-9 in its last 13 games overall against the Buds and 1-5 over its last six when visiting the Big Smoke. There were rumblings ahead of these two club's last meeting that Jake Allen might get the start over Carey Price in the Canadiens' net, so double-check the line movements before placing your wager. Regardless of who's between the pipes, I am really feeling the Leafs to keep it rolling against a beleaguered Habs group that could be looking ahead to their much-needed week off.

Toronto continues to be the dominant force in the North Division with another win against their Original Six rival.

Silver Pick

Tampa Bay Lightning @ Florida Panthers (Over/Under 6.5) – Pick: Over

You know I have to hammer at least one Over bet, right? Well, this is the one to sprinkle on. Right off the bat this game looks like a great spot for a high-scoring contest. Aside from their last meeting earlier this week going over the number (a 5-2 win for Tampa), the recent history between the two Florida-based clubs points to another matchup that could be a long night for goaltenders.

Tampa is clicking on the offensive end of the rink of late and currently sit tied for eighth in the NHL in scoring. In addition, five of their last seven overall and six of their last seven against the Panthers have all gone Over the total.

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The rivalry is heating up (see what I did there) in the Sunshine State and I can see this game easily ending 4-3 or 5-4 with the total going Over the number in a hurry. Don't be shy about laying a bet down on the Over 6.5 in this one, my Silver play of the week.

Bronze Pick

Calgary Flames @ Vancouver Canucks – Pick: Flames

Another classic case of two clubs heading in opposite directions, the Flames and Canucks lock horns in the late game tonight for what is sure to be a desperate Vancouver team looking to snap a horrendous six-game skid. I think it's fair to say that very few predicted the Canucks would be this bad. For a team that boasts some of the elite young talent in the league and a bounty of skilled prospects, these poor performances night in and night out have been somewhat head-scratching.

On the other hand, the Flames are starting to hit their stride with three wins in a row and five of their last seven overall, including a neat-and-tidy 3-1 victory over these very same Canucks just two nights back. Unfortunately for Vancouver, it has to try and break out of its ugly scoring slump (only three goals scored over the last three games) against one of the best goaltenders to currently strap on the pads in Jacob Markstrom, so their task isn't exactly getting any easier.

I already mentioned the main thing the Canucks have going for them, as they should be playing a very desperate brand of hockey to turn their season around. But you know me when it comes to hammering the hot hand. Calgary owns a 6-1 record in its last seven against Vancouver and I see that trend continuing tonight. This should be a close contest, but I still like the Flames to take the two points, good for my Bronze Pick of the week.

Side Bets

Detroit Red Wings @ Nashville Predators – Pick: Red Wings +1.5

Boston Bruins @ New York Islanders (Over/Under 5.5) – Pick: Under

Carolina Hurricanes @ Dallas Stars – Pick: Stars

Flip Livingstone is a former NHL writer for theScore with past experience at such outlets as Narcity Media, Postmedia, and Hockey Night in Canada. You can follow him on Twitter @FlipLivingstone and @Flips_Picks.

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UPCOMING GAMES

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LANE HUTSON MTL
NIKITA KUCHEROV T.B
NATHAN MACKINNON COL
AUSTON MATTHEWS TOR
JURAJ SLAFKOVSKY MTL

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FREDERIK ANDERSEN CAR
THATCHER DEMKO VAN
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25.0 LUCAS RAYMOND DYLAN LARKIN ALEX DEBRINCAT
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