Daily Fantasy Saturday: New Top Line in Dallas

Stephen Dotzel

2021-03-27

Last Saturday while I was scrambling right before lineup lock with the news that two of my favorite plays were scratched, Alexander Radulov and Tyler Toffoli, I was reminded of an important concept in DFS that I've never really touched on in this article. And that concept is bankroll management.

I'm not going to pretend I have the perfect answer on how to manage your bankroll. In fact, I think it's one of my weakest areas. Sometimes I enter more contests than I "should" or I play slates just to play, even if I don't necessarily have a good feel for it. Both of those are things I wouldn't recommend someone do, yet at times it happens.

The best advice I can give when it comes to this isn't what exact percentage of your account balance you should play each night, or what contests you should enter. Rather, the rule I try to live by is to play at most the amount of money I would be okay losing on a given slate. If that "upcoming entries" dollar amount makes you uncomfortable, you're probably playing too much. Everyone is going to lose in DFS at some point, and you need to be able to survive those losses and the downswings you'll inevitably run into.

Sometimes these losses are caused by things you have no control over. Like on Sunday when Max Pacioretty was scratched two minutes before lock, or on Tuesday when Aleksander Barkov was scratched five minutes AFTER lock. In both of those cases you were getting an automatic zero and there was nothing you could do about it. It sucks, but it's part of the game. If you had a majority of your bankroll tied up into those players, well you'd be at risk of ruin. So keep that in mind when entering contests. If you were to lose every dollar you entered right now, would you be okay with that? Could you still play tomorrow if you wanted to? If the answers to that are no, you're probably playing too much.

But that's enough talking about losing, if you're still reading this it's because you want winners. We've got a bit of a smaller slate today as compared to the past few weeks, so ownership will play a bit more of a factor. I think the Toronto vs Edmonton game will be the one that sees the most with Toronto, specifically Auston Matthews, leading the way. Otherwise, things should be fairly spread out. We've got seven games to choose from so let's get to it. Here are some suggestions on how I'm handling the night. All players and prices are from DraftKings Main Slate (7 pm EST) but can be applied to FanDuel as well.

Top Options

EDM – Connor McDavid ($9,000), Leon Draisaitl ($8,200)

It's hard to look past this duo on any slate, but when they're paired on the same line together AND coming off a seven-day rest, they became nearly impossible to ignore. Before their Covid induced break, the Oilers were playing pretty well with wins in seven of their last nine.

McDavid himself had been on fire with double-digit fantasy points in all nine of those games and in the seven wins he surpassed 20 DraftKings points in each. Altogether he is averaging 24.2 DraftKings points across his past nine games, something only a small number of players are capable of. With a week of rest there's no reason to think McDavid can't pick right up where he left off and when he's on a line with Draisaitl the ceiling on these two is unmatched. As a result, I'd try to make sure I can fit them both in.

Adding Jesse Puljujarvi ($3,700) to make it a three man stack won't cost you much or you can go even lower by punting off with either Alex Chiasson ($2,500) or Ethan Bear ($2,500) who are both minimum price in the hopes they can pick up a point or two. Of course if you have the room, someone like Tyson Barrie ($5,800) or Darnell Nurse ($6,000) are the preferred stacking options.

DAL – Joe Pavelski ($6,300), Roope Hintz ($5,000), Jason Robertson ($3,900)

While Dallas managed to score three times last Saturday, my picks on who to roster didn't deliver in part because of the absence of Alexander Radulov from the lineup. It was announced after the game that Radulov would be day-to-day for the REST OF THE SEASON. Not what you want to hear as a fantasy player.

Without Radulov, the Stars have been searching for a line combination to give the team the spark it needs offensively. Well, they may have finally found it with Pavelski, Hintz, and Robertson who each scored a goal over the final 22 minutes of game time Thursday in a big come-from-behind win over the Lightning.

The Stars will look to ride that momentum into tonight's contest against the Panthers, who are in the midst of their first three-game losing streak of the season. This trio is fully correlated on the power play as well, which is always a plus and they're very affordable as a full line stack. Both John Klingberg ($5,000) and Miro Heiskanen ($4,700) join them on the power play and each make for good options if you want to extend the stack out to four.

NYI – Jean-Gabriel Pageau ($4,500), Oliver Wahlstrom ($3,400), Anthony Beauvillier ($3,500)

The Islanders just keep winning as they've now rattled off wins in 12 of their last 14 games. This is particularly impressive when you consider Mathew Barzal ($5,700) has not scored a goal since March 6 and has only cracked double digit fantasy points once in his past eight games.

The hottest line on the Isles has instead been led by Pageau, who has six points and 51.6 DraftKings in the past three games. Beauvillier has four points of his own during that stretch, and Wahlstrom is on a five-game point streak and has been consistent with ten or more DraftKings points in five straight games.

With this trio playing so well and their price tags extremely affordable, this line stack is my favorite of the night to match with the more expensive options such as Edmonton or the team I'm about to mention. Doing so allows a lot of flexibility with the rest of your lineup and you can increase that by extending your Isles stack to four with Nick Leddy ($3,300), who is a solid value option. 

TOR – Auston Matthews ($8,900), Mitch Marner ($8,000), Wayne Simmonds ($3,400)

I almost made it through the top plays without mentioning Toronto, but here we are. While I slightly prefer the Oilers who I expect to be a little less owned, you can't talk about DFS on this slate and not at least mention Toronto.

No doubt rostering Matthews has been a losing proposition ever since word about his wrist injury surfaced. In his last 12 games played, Matthews has just three goals and has only eclipsed 15 DraftKings points twice. At around $9K in salary, scores like that will kill your lineups and when you add in the fact he's typically the highest-owned player on the slate he has been brutal. But with all that said, there aren't many who can dominate a slate like Matthews can and his upside is as high as anyone.

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If I was playing one or two lineups I'd probably pass here, but if building more I think you need to work him in somewhere. I typically play 20 lineups and I'm planning on getting him in about 25% of mine, or 5 lineups. For reference I'm going to play Edmonton in about 40%. Matthews is skating with Marner and Simmonds at both 5-on-5 and the power play, so that is who I would like to pair him with but I also don't mind playing him solo as his ceiling games come when he's shooting five-plus shots and scoring multiple goals, not so much when he's dishing out helpers.

Quick Hitters

CHI – After a terrible start to the season the Nashville defense and goaltending has rebounded as of late. Still, Patrick Kane ($7,500) and Alex DeBrincat ($7,200) are as lethal of a duo as you'll find in the league outside of Edmonton. Their price tags have finally fallen out of the $8K range making them somewhat easier to stack. Debrincat enters on a four-game point streak and Kane is coming off back-to-back two-point showings. Pairing them with an affordable defenseman like Connor Murphy ($4,200) or Adam Boqvist ($3,600) is my preferred way to triple stack Chicago.

WPG2 – Kyle Connor ($6,500), Nikolaj Ehlers ($6,900), Pierre-Luc Dubois ($4,300)

If you looked at recent box scores you might be tempted to chase the Jets third line of Adam Lowry ($3,000) and Andrew Copp ($4,000), but the second line is where I want to go on this late. Both Connor and Ehlers have scored over 15 goals this season, which is a feat not too many pairs of linemates can claim. Dubois has fit in nicely on this line since coming over from Columbus and provides a goal scoring touch of his own. Dubois' depressed price tag helps the stack-ability of this trio as a whole as well.

ARI – If you read this column weekly you know I pick on San Jose every chance I get, and tonight is no different. They remain bottom 4 in the league in goals allowed per game and Devan Dubnyk, who is likely to get the nod Saturday, has yet to get his save percentage over .900 on the season and has allowed nine goals across his past two starts. The Coyotes lines have been in constant flux but I will target whichever one Conor Garland ($6,000) lands on. After Friday's game that looks to be Christian Dvorak ($4,400) and Christian Fischer ($2,500). I'd prefer to leave off Fischer in favor of either Jakob Chychrun ($6,100) or Oliver Ekman-Larsson ($3,900).

Top Value Options for Filling Out Lineups

C – Nick Schmaltz ($3,900), Jared McCann ($3,700), Noel Acciari (If Barkov is out, $3,800), Lowry ($3,000)

W – Robertson ($3,900), Eeli Tolvanen ($3,900), Andrew Mangiapane ($3,600), Phil Kessel ($3,300), Ryan Donato ($2,900)

D – Brett Pesce ($3,900), Noah Hanifin ($3,800), Boqvist ($3,600), Esa Lindell ($3,500)

Goalie Picks

Anton Khudobin ($7,900) or Jake Oettinger ($7,900)

Andrei Vasilevskiy ($7,700)

Ilya Sorokin ($7,200)

Juuse Saros ($7,100)

Laurent Brossoit ($7,000)

Be sure to double check your lineups before lock for any last-minute scratches or goalie changes, especially this year with the Covid protocols. If you follow me on Twitter @SteveDotzel you can subscribe to my "DFS-NHL" list which is comprised of several team beat writers tweeting the most recent news in real-time. You can also reach out to me personally and I'll do my best to answer any questions I can. Hope to see you on top of the leaderboards!

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UPCOMING GAMES

Mar 19 - 19:03 DET vs CBJ
Mar 19 - 19:03 N.J vs PIT
Mar 19 - 19:03 PHI vs TOR
Mar 19 - 19:03 NYR vs WPG
Mar 19 - 19:03 BOS vs OTT
Mar 19 - 19:03 NYI vs CAR
Mar 19 - 20:03 NSH vs S.J
Mar 19 - 20:03 STL vs COL
Mar 19 - 21:03 EDM vs MTL
Mar 19 - 22:03 VGK vs T.B
Mar 19 - 22:03 L.A vs CHI
Mar 19 - 22:03 VAN vs BUF
Mar 19 - 22:03 ANA vs MIN

Starting Goalies

Top Skater Views

  Players Team
DANIIL MIROMANOV CGY
CONNOR MCMICHAEL WSH
CONNOR BEDARD CHI
EVGENY KUZNETSOV CAR
TAGE THOMPSON BUF

Top Goalie Profile Views

  Players Team
DUSTIN WOLF CGY
CHARLIE LINDGREN WSH
DANIIL TARASOV CBJ
JOEY DACCORD SEA
DEVIN COOLEY S.J

LINE COMBOS

  Frequency ARI Players
22.7 DYLAN GUENTHER LAWSON CROUSE LOGAN COOLEY
20.5 MATIAS MACCELLI ALEX KERFOOT MICHAEL CARCONE
12.8 LIAM O'BRIEN JACK MCBAIN JOHN LEONARD

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