21 Fantasy Hockey Rambles

Dobber Sports

2021-03-28

Every Sunday, we’ll share 21 Fantasy Rambles from our writers at DobberHockey. These thoughts are curated from the past week’s 'Daily Ramblings'.

Writers/Editors: Ian Gooding, Michael Clifford, Alexander MacLean, and Dobber

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1. Alex Ovechkin‘s goal-scoring run continues. With a pair of goals on Friday, Ovie now has 10 goals over his past 10 games. Entering Saturday action, that helped him sneak to just four goals in arrears of Connor McDavid and Auston Matthews in the Rocket Richard race. Or, to put it another way, Ovechkin had just seven goals just three weeks ago and was well off the pace for the goal lead. I think we’ve learned by now that we should never count him out. (mar27)

2. Eric Staal's value should improve just by getting out of Buffalo. He’ll provide center depth for the Habs, which could cut slightly into the ice time for someone like Nick Suzuki or even Phillip Danault. [For more, check out the fantasy impact article from Mike Clifford.]

Keep in mind that Staal will only need to quarantine for seven days instead of 14 before he can join the Montreal lineup. This news from the Canadian government should facilitate more cross-border trades, and it should also help once the conference finals begin and the North Division winner has to cross the border. (mar27)

3. The Blues have been on a bit of a skid. Their top defenceman, Colton Parayko, has been out of the lineup and the team really doesn’t look the same without him. They got a positive update on Parayko this week, though, that he's back skating again. If they can get him back at any point soon, all the better. They have desperately missed him. (mar26)

4. Quick question: How many games does Dallas have coming up in the next five weeks? The answer: 20. That is a pile of hockey in a very short time. Miro Heiskanen had a tough start to the season with no goals and nine points through 16 games, with just 22 shots on goal. Maybe not unexpected, given all the turbulence Dallas went through early in the campaign.

Since the start of March, his points/game has actually declined a bit (six in 12) but he has three goals, and has 33 shots on target in those 12 contests (not counting last night's action). That is a lot closer to what we should expect from Heiskanen. What is the bonus here is he’s playing a whopping 26:25 per game. That level of ice time with the sheer volume of games he has coming up in the next five weeks, basically through to the final week of the season, makes him a trade target. (mar25)

5. Juuso Valimaki might run the Flames power play one day, but he doesn’t appear ready to do so now. He has now been held without a point in his last 13 games on top of a healthy scratch. I tried to include him in a keeper league trade package for Zach Werenski earlier this week and was denied, but that may turn out to be a blessing in disguise for me if I continue to be patient with him. (mar27)

6. If you’re a John Gibson owner, you haven’t had an easy time lately. He’s a talented real-life goalie, but that doesn’t always translate in fantasy leagues because of the team in front of him. Gibson has just two wins and two quality starts in his last 13 games, so many fantasy owners have already made the decision to move on. (mar27)

7. Between the scratches and donuts in the boxscores, Nikita Gusev hasn’t recorded a point since March 2 and is also without a goal since February 23. He probably deserves a better fate, but he shouldn’t be in your fantasy lineup at the moment. Maybe a trade will change his fortunes, but will a team want to take on his $4.5 million cap hit, even if it’s only for the rest of the season? Gusev is a UFA after the season. (mar27)

8. Something Dobber said about Sidney Crosby in his Monday Ramblings (also further below) got me thinking about Patrick Kane and his future production.

Kane may not have the same “generational player” title, but his offensive skill set is similar to Crosby, in that they are both extremely intelligent players with high puck skills, who can shoot and pass better than most of the rest of the league. Maybe we knock two-or-three years off of Kane’s age when evaluating him and his future production. In short, he’ll be producing at a 100-point full-season pace for the next number of years. If your championship window is open (or opening) now, he’s someone to inquire about. (mar24)

9. The Predators really need Roman Josi to ramp up his production, and if they are going to have any push for the postseason then they are going to have to ride him hard. He might be one of the better value buys that you can get right now on defence considering his upside and slow start. 

BTW: Dante Fabbro didn’t manage to take advantage of the extra ice time while Josi was out, but Mattias Ekholm certainly did. In the seven games without Josi, Ekholm put up five points, 17 shots, and 11 of his 12 hits on the season.

Yes, you read that correctly. In Ekholm’s first 18 games this season, he amassed one single hit. After pacing for over 60 in each of the last five seasons, this year’s lack of physicality is puzzling. It could partially be due to an eight percent increase in offensive zone starts, but that doesn’t cover all of it. Something I’ll have to keep an eye on moving forward while watching more Nashville games. In the meantime, getting traded out from under Josi’s shadow may seem like it will. (mar24)

10. Pavel Zacha is pacing for over 50 points/82 for the first time in his career. He may be a bit of a bargain at his $2.25 million cap hit next year as the team improves around him. Sticking on that top power play unit will be key.

Still with the Devils, I’m curious if any team takes a flier on acquiring Nikita Gusev to boost their offence for a playoff run. How do people think he might fit with Washington, Edmonton, or Dallas? I think the fits in Edmonton and Washington are a little more obvious, but Dallas makes the most sense to me. They have gotten a lot of mileage out of Russian winger Alex Radulov who came back from the KHL in the middle of his career. (mar24)

11. I honestly don’t even know what to say. Railroaded out of Edmonton, wins an MVP in New Jersey, gets sent to Arizona for some reason, then decides to sign with the doormat of the NHL for the last decade. Then, a week ago, a slapshot to the face. This Taylor Hall guy is cursed, man.

Like many other people, I was really excited to see Hall play with Jack Eichel. Then the team faltered after their first 10 games, Eichel got injured, and here we are. The team fired its coach, there’ll be significant roster turnover again, and Hall is assuredly gone at the deadline. What a world. (mar23)

12. I was really, really hoping that Erik Karlsson basically being off for 10 months would get him healthy to the point where he could return to form. If not in the form of 4-5 years ago, then at least something better than we saw in 2019-20.

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Well, none of that happened. He has 11 points in 29 games, the worst point-per-game mark of his career (yes, really). He is averaging under two shots per game individually and his play-driving impacts are atrocious. He is considerably worse than he was last year.

It is sad to say, but I think this is the end of the road for Karlsson’s utility. He clearly has never recovered from his ankle injury and things are unlikely to improve as he ages. Maybe he does, but I’m not counting on it. Regardless, I got to watch one of the most exciting defenseman to ever enter the league, and got to watch him do it for years. Thanks for that, Erik. (mar23)

13. Sometimes, the grass isn’t always greener. Patrik Laine clearly wanted out of Winnipeg, got his wish, and now has his lowest point/game total in Columbus of his career. The worst part is that he’s more or less given up shooting; since joining the Blue Jackets, he’s at 2.0 shots per game. Last year, he was at 3.3 and the year before at 3.0. Shooting so little basically makes him a liability. He is there to shoot and score goals. If he’s not doing that, well, Torts has a place for him on the bench. (mar23)

14. Jason Robertson had to battle to get into the lineup. Imagine if Rick Bowness still stubbornly kept him out? Sometimes prospects are big-time NHL-ready in spite of what the team plans for them. Robertson is this team’s best scorer lately and it’s not even close. No longer ask – what line is he on? Instead, you ask – who gets to play on his line? (mar22)

15. Now that he’s 33, I am finding that Sidney Crosby owners are bailing on him in keeper leagues. Generally speaking, I think owners bail on star players at age 32 or 33, figuring that they’ll fall off a cliff soon and they don’t want to be stuck with him. They don’t want to be left standing with a chair when the music stops.

Let me assure you – Crosby will continue to post numbers greater than a point-per-game next season, the one after that, and the one after that. He’s a generational player and for those players you can knock four years off their age and treat them accordingly. Under my ‘generational-player formula’ that I just made up right now, Crosby is 29. A deal can be had in your dynasty league. You can get a reliable, productive player for much cheaper than he should be. 

The only caveat is that you will have trouble getting value for him in a trade if you decide to move him next year or in the future. So when you get him, just keep in mind that you are getting a guy who will be on your team for good – and only truly tradeable at trade deadlines when owners are desperate and ready to meet your price. (mar22)

16. I know you don’t believe that Connor McDavid will ever get 150 points in a season. In fact, you’d put money on it and feel comfortable that you’ll win. But he really is just getting better and better. Check out his points-per-game average each year of his career:

2015-16: 1.07
2016-17: 1.22
2017-18: 1.32
2018-19: 1.49
2019-20: 1.52
2020-21: 1.77

It’s still on the rise. The above number is a 145-point pace. He’s 24 and still two years from his prime window. And according to the aforementioned generational-superstar age-adjustment rule that I made up earlier, he should be treated like he’s 20! I'm calling it right now – if McDavid plays 80 games in a season before he turns 30, then he will top 150 points. I said it right here – mark this page down and make fun of me or congratulate me later. (mar22)

17. I get the argument of where the Blackhawks would be if not for Patrick Kane. Yet if Connor McDavid can’t win the Hart Trophy because Leon Draisaitl is his teammate, does that mean he has to get traded in order to win it? When Gretzky was leading the league in scoring, the Hart Trophy wasn’t given to someone else because he had Kurri, Messier, Coffey and so on around him. Don’t overthink it, folks – give it to McDavid. (mar21)

18. Pavel Buchnevich has 18 points (8 G, 10 A) over his last 13 games, which has vaulted him to nearly a point per game (32 points in 31 games). I heard the “is he ever going to come around” rumblings on him frequently, so it’s worth mentioning that he’s in his fourth full season. As a near-200 lb. forward, he may have needed that 400-game threshold. (mar21)

19. According to Saad Yousuf of The Athletic, Rick Bowness has stated that Alexander Radulov will be a “perpetual game time decision”, similar to Roope Hintz. “Perpetual game time decision” means high-maintenance fantasy hockey player, as it’s truly difficult to know how many games he will suit up for each week. This gives me flashbacks of the late years of Peter Forsberg’s career. According to Mike Heika of the Stars website, Hintz doesn’t know whether he will play until he arrives at the rink. Just something to consider if you’re thinking about adding or trading for Hintz. Or Radulov, for that matter. (mar21)

20. Casey DeSmith continues to be one of the league’s better backups. He has now posted six consecutive quality starts and has a 1.93 GAA and .928 SV% in 12 games this season. In fact, he has been alternating starts with Tristan Jarry lately. Expect this timeshare to continue while DeSmith is playing this well. (mar21)

21. Last week, the Sabres traded goalie Jonas Johansson to the Avalanche for a sixth-round pick. The Avalanche definitely need a backup goalie, as we’ve heard nothing about a potential Pavel Francouz return from injury and Hunter Miska (5 GP, 1-1-2, 4.16 GAA, .838 SV%) doesn’t seem like he can handle backup duties.

Johansson isn’t much better (at the time of the trade: 0-5-1 with an .884 SV% and 3.79 GAA), but at least his value improves just by moving to a team that is literally at the opposite end of the scale from Buffalo. If Jared Bednar is more confident in his backup, then that should mean a little more rest for Philipp Grubauer. It might have a lot to do with the team, but Grubauer has established himself as a top-tier fantasy goalie. (mar21)

Have a good week, folks be safe!!

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UPCOMING GAMES

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Starting Goalies

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  Players Team
JAKE WALMAN S.J
CONNOR MCDAVID EDM
MARK KASTELIC BOS
CASEY MITTELSTADT COL
MARAT KHUSNUTDINOV MIN

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  Players Team
LINUS ULLMARK OTT
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SERGEI BOBROVSKY FLA
MACKENZIE BLACKWOOD S.J
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LINE COMBOS

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23.4 JEAN-GABRIEL PAGEAU ANDERS LEE PIERRE ENGVALL
19.9 BO HORVAT CASEY CIZIKAS MATHEW BARZAL
14.9 KYLE PALMIERI BROCK NELSON SIMON HOLMSTROM

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