Ramblings: Hall a Bruin? Goodrow Signs; Weber Update; Nedeljkovic and Gostisbehere Traded – July 23

Michael Clifford

2021-07-23

One of the big sagas of the summer will be where Jack Eichel ends up. It seems clear at this point that the fracture between the player and team is just too severe to mend. Where he ends up and what the trade looks like is down the line, and it seems we may be further away from that than we think:

If teams don't even have access to Eichel's medical records, he's not going anywhere. It'd be like buying a house without inspection. (Actually, that's a bad example, given the absolute insanity that is North American housing markets since the start of the pandemic, but that's for another day.) Whatever the final deal ends up being, it's going to be a monster. For that reason, we should probably go about our days instead of wondering when or where Eichel will be traded.

I don't know what is going on behind the scenes, but the longer this drags out, the worse the return is going to be for Eichel. Most teams will have no fewer contracts or more cap space than they do right now. Waiting a month or so could only complicate things for some teams and push some competitors out of the Eichel market. The Sabres want as big a market as possible. They need to start getting this ball rolling.

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An update on Taylor Hall

Late Wednesday night, there were Twitter rumours that he was verging on a four-year extension in the $6M AAV range. I tend to not to pay attention to the abundance of rumours at this time, but if the GM comments on it, it's a pretty safe bet.

In that same press conference, Don Sweeney said that Ondrej Kase would get a qualifying offer. He has played a grand total of nine games over parts of two regular seasons for Boston because of his extensive injury history. When he's healthy and at his best, he's a fringe top-line winger. This could be a big boost for the team if he can regain his form of 3-4 years ago. He is still just 25 years old.

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The expected Barclay Goodrow signing:

All I will say is that he's priced out of range in cap leagues. He is likely a third liner for them and that won't be enough ice time for $3.6M a year in salary formats.

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A significant Shea Weber update:

He has had a slew of injuries over the last few years, so this isn't surprising. They need Weber to be healthy for playoffs and the next 2-3 years. That is if he can come back at all.

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The Oilers signed Mike Smith to a two-year extension with an AAV of $2.2M. They need him to keep replicating his success this past campaign or else they're in dire straits. There isn't much goaltending help on this roster, anywhere.

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I wrote about both the Shayne Gostisbehere trade and the acquisition of Alex Nedeljkovic. All my fantasy thoughts on those two trades are in the links provided.

I am still kind of shocked Seattle hasn't done more yet. Walking away from the Expansion Draft with that roster and no extra draft picks is… interesting.

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Alright, back to the Draft itself.  

Yesterday's Ramblings covered a lot of the Expansion selections. I talked about a handful of the guys that were picked but I really wanted to dive deeper into the fantasy potential. But before we get there, we have to keep one thing in mind: Seattle's division.

Starting off in the Pacific, the Kraken will get Vegas, the two Alberta teams, Vancouver, and the three California teams in their division. That is two playoff teams from 2021, and one of those playoff teams was swept by the Winnipeg Jets. Teams may improve this offseason – we'll see – but one thing we can be fairly certain about is this is the NHL's weakest division. It won't take uber-elite players to post good fantasy seasons when you get nearly one-third of your games against bad teams from your division alone.

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With that out of the way, let's look at five of them.

Yanni Gourde

Gourde is the guy everyone talks about, but it's funny how this works, right? He had a huge 64-point season in his rookie year, but only posted 78 points in his next 150 games. Some people in the fantasy realm had given up on him. Then he posts 36 in 56 regular season games this year (a 53-point pace) with seven in 23 postseason games, and all of a sudden he's a name to know in the fantasy realm again.

While I share the sentiment that he's an excellent player, I am just dubious that he rockets up to instant 60- to 70-point status immediately. There isn't a ton of scoring here, and even in a weak division, if he's in a checking-ish role with Joonas Donskoi and Calle Jarnkrok, instead of in a scoring role with Jared McCann and Jordan Eberle, it wildly changes how we should view him as a fantasy asset.

If we can get 55 points, two shots per game, and a hit per game from Gourde, that should be considered a successful season. I will wait until I do projections in September, but I may be lower on him than others.

Jared McCann

I think this is the guy we should be looking for a big breakout. I have seen some of the analysts I follow talk about his focus on generating speed in transition this year, as well as generating zone entries on his own. McCann was always a reliable defensive forward, but if he's added a true offensive dimension to his game, this could be a true top-line forward in the wings right now.

As a certain variant might say: that's the gambit. Is McCann the reliable defensive forward he was over the first five years of his career, or the two-way forward he was this year, which could result in a 60-point season?

My initial thought is that I am going to be more reliant on the recent data, including some underlying playmaking stats. From some data I have access to, he was one of Pittsburgh's true dual shooting/playmaking threats, for example. (This data is collected by Corey Sznajder, and his Patreon can be found here.) When I see something like "McCann was only a bit worse than Crosby in being a dual threat," I take notice.

As with every forward here, line mates will matter. At the outset though, I think I'll have more interest in McCann in fantasy than Gourde.

Jeremy Lauzon

In 76 career regular season games playing about 17:13 a night, Lauzon has racked up 91 blocked shots and 145 hits. Pace that out for 82 games, and it's nearly 100 blocks and over 150 hits in a full season, playing 17 minutes a night. Those are big peripheral totals.

The problem with going to Seattle is they have a deep blue line, or at least they do right now. Maybe they make some trades moving forward. Right now, the left side could be something like Giordano-Oleksiak-Dunn. Lauzon isn't cracking any of those three. If Giordano were to get traded, as has been rumoured, that changes the equation.

I think there is big peripheral upside here but he needs the ice time to do it. Just getting in the lineup means he's likely fantasy-relevant, but getting to the top-4 would make him a name to remember. Just keep an eye on Seattle's depth chart as the summer progresses.

Morgan Geekie

Aside from Carson Twarynski, this may have been the surprise of the Draft. A lot of people – present company included – thought that Jake Bean would be the lock pick. After all, Bean has pedigree, a great AHL season under his belt, and a decent NHL campaign as well. Bean is looked at as a future top-pair defenceman, while Geekie is a serious work in progress. It seems they decided they had enough defencemen and wanted to take the chance on Geekie.

By the data I mentioned earlier, Geekie was about league average in zone entries per 60 minutes and carry-in percentage. He seems a decent-enough playmaker. He isn't a big shooter, though, and we don't have a big enough sample to say just how good he is defensively yet. He seems about average.

All this is to say this was a big gamble pick. Geekie could very well turn into a reliable middle-six centre. He also could be out of the league in three years. With the depth the team has at centre already, he's a wait-and-see in the fantasy game. The same could be said of Alex True.

Jordan Eberle

I was happy to see this pick. Maybe it doesn't get Eberle closer to a Cup, but he had been stuck in a kind of a rut production-wise on the Island. Four seasons with New York, and three of them were under 17 minutes a night. The Islanders are also much more known for defence than offence. What will Seattle's system look like? Hopefully a bit more open offensively.

Leaving Mat Barzal isn't great. Barzal is a terrific playmaker, but again, it was within the constraints of the Islanders' system. What if Seattle is a bit more wide open, and Eberle is playing 19 minutes a night? I would rather have 19 minutes a night playing with Gourde than 16:30 a night playing with Barzal.

Another case where we'll have to see how they lineup, but I'm more interested in Eberle now than I've been in a couple years.

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