Every Sunday, we share 21 Fantasy Rambles from our writers at DobberHockey. These thoughts are curated from the past week’s 'Daily Ramblings'.

Writers/Editors: Ian Gooding, Michael Clifford, Alexander MacLean, and Dobber

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1. We truly had ourselves a Free Agent Frenzy, didn’t we? Last year didn’t see much player movement, while this year it didn’t seem to slow down for about the first six hours. Myself, Dobber, and Ian were around for the day giving out our instant analysis on the signings (and trades!) that went down. They can all be viewed here, while all our Ramblings are archived here. (july29)

2. What about Detroit’s top-6? I wrote about newcomer Pius Suter but didn’t write about their lineup. For the first time in several years, they could have two competent scoring lines, and maybe even a semblance of a third line? What about…

Jakub Vrana – Dylan Larkin – Filip Zadina
Tyler Bertuzzi – Suter – Robby Fabbri
Vlad Namestnikov – Michael Rasmussen – Adam Erne

That isn’t… terrible? Not-terrible is a step forward for the Wings, and that actually looks like a decent top-6 to me. At least one that can threaten to score every time it steps on the ice. And if Lucas Raymond shows up, that’s a whole other dimension.

I like the direction the team is going here. Lots of good, young players all over the place. Give them time, but it seems on the right track. (july29)

3. Jaden Schwartz heading to Seattle is interesting. He was hurt a fair bit last year but had 50-point seasons three of the four years before that. He was getting lots of ice time then, which is another possibility here considering the depth chart behind him is Brandon Tanev and Calle Jarnkrok. If Jaden Schwartz is playing 18-19 minutes a night, which includes top PP time, on a line with Yanni Gourde and Jordan Eberle? I think 20 goals and 50 points is well within reach for him again, and he can go beyond that. Just remember he doesn’t bring much for peripherals so his value swings wildly between leagues. (july29)

4. What to make of Carolina’s goaltending? They clean house, including their Calder finalist (Alex Nedeljkovic), to bring in Frederik Andersen and Antti Raanta. Both of those goalies, by the way, were outside the top-30 goalies in high-danger save percentage over the last three seasons.

Andersen was injured and lost his job to Jack Campbell last year. Raanta has 55 starts over the last three years due to varying injuries and splitting duties. What if Andersen is the Andersen of the last two years and Raanta isn’t able to stay heathy? It seems possible something like that happens. I do find it kind of funny that Andersen went to Carolina, Petr Mrazek went to Toronto, and we just continue to watch this sport.

It’s all going to be a problem for fantasy. They are too good of a team to ignore but they will also likely split start. If one goalie gets real hot, they’ll take the net, but what does that look like? Maybe 55 starts at the absolute most? Unless injuries crop up, which they very well could, this is a double-edged sword for these guys. (july29)

5. As I work through the Top 100 Roto Rankings for August, my focus will be on players who have recently switched teams. Today I’ll discuss Dougie Hamilton, the biggest UFA prize of free agency.

On the surface, it would seem as though moving to New Jersey from Carolina would result in a downgrade for Hamilton. And at least initially, it probably is. Yet by signing Hamilton to a monster seven-year, $63 million contract, the Devils are signaling that they don’t want to keep company with the Buffalos of the league and are ready to compete now.

The Devils simply don’t generate the same level of offense as the Hurricanes at the moment. Carolina generated an average of 3.21 goals per game last season, while New Jersey generated 2.59 goals per game. The power-play percentage difference between the two teams seems even more significant, with the Hurricanes converting on 25.6 percent of their power plays, and the Devils just 14.2 percent. Obviously Hamilton will help the Devils in both categories with his ability as a play driver, but the fact remains that he is still joining an inferior offensive squad. [Fantasy Impact: Devils Win Dougie Hamilton Lottery]

I have Hamilton ranked at #22 in the Roto Rankings for July. I also kept Hamilton in one of my leagues (keep 4) for the 2020-21 season, and he was a key reason that I was able to win that league. He gives you strong numbers across the board in many scoring roto categories (rankings are among defensemen for 2020-21):

– 10 goals (tied for 5^th)
– 32 assists (9^th)
– Plus-20 (tied for 13^th)
– 18 power-play points (tied for 6^th)
– 180 shots on goal (1^st)

Over an 82-game season, Hamilton would have reached 62 points, 27 power-play points, and nearly 270 shots. He won’t lose ice time or power-play time in New Jersey because he is being paid to be the guy, where there was some doubt to that among his previous teams, including Carolina at first. That being said, if moving teams results in a 10 percent decline in Hamilton’s offense, he’s looking at a 55-point season. That’s still a very strong number, and the ability to contribute in multiple roto categories won’t go away. But it’s hard for me to justify his pre-signing ranking, even as a guy who swears by Hamilton in roto leagues.

Hamilton’s addition could be huge for New Jersey’s young scoring attack, though. The Devils don’t feature any forwards over the age of 26 on their roster, mainly consisting of forwards who still have yet to enter their prime. I’m thinking of Jack Hughes in particular, who looks like a strong bet to improve on his 45-point pace from his sophomore season. (july31)

6. Wrote Mike Clifford: When I heard the Dougie Hamilton-to-New-Jersey rumours, I didn’t quite believe them. This was a team that still seemed far away from doing anything and they didn’t need a big-ticket free agent right now.

On the other hand, they now have a healthy Nico Hischier to play behind Jack Hughes, who is turning into an elite center as we speak. Yegor Sharangovich showed promise, Alexander Holtz is on the way, and they’ve completely revamped the blue line. They’re two top-6 forwards away from a competent top-6, and that’s all Dougie and that blue line needs to be a dangerous team.

They aren’t there yet, though, so this isn’t immediately great news for Hamilton. Carolina scored 3.1 goals per 60 minutes last year and New Jersey was at 2.6. That may not change a whole lot this year, so the environment is worse for Hamilton. His only hope is more ice time, which isn’t a certainty. He will still be very good, maybe just not super-elite right away. (july29)

7. Alex Tuch will need six months to recover from shoulder surgery, which will likely push his season debut up to the new year. Even though the Golden Knights’ most significant weakness is at the center position, the Evgenii Dadonov acquisition now makes more sense. Assuming Tuch is placed on LTIR, Vegas now has more cap space to acquire Jack Eichel. At the very least, the Golden Knights now have more space to sign RFAs Nolan Patrick and Dylan Coghlan.

Assuming no further offseason moves, the Tuch injury doesn’t necessarily help Dadonov. As mentioned in the fantasy take, Dadonov has been far more productive when he has more skilled linemates. Just look at the difference in his production between Florida and Ottawa. Regardless, I like him for some sort of bounceback with Vegas, even if not to the level of his time with Aleksander Barkov and Jonathan Huberdeau. The Golden Knights simply offer more scoring options than the Senators do. (july31)

8. At the time I was writing the fantasy take on the three new forwards that the Bruins acquired (Erik Haula, Nick Foligno, Tomas Nosek), I honestly didn’t think any of them would matter that much in fantasy leagues. However, David Krejci ‘s departure should now create an opening for either Haula or Foligno.

Jack Studnicka, who spent some time in the top 6 early in the season, might also be given a go in Krejci’s second-line role as well. However, Charlie Coyle might be the preferred option for that spot alongside Taylor Hall and Craig Smith, as Coyle is signed for another five years at just over $5 million. In addition, both Coyle and Krejci are right shots, which works better for a left winger like Hall.

Just this past Friday, Krejci was at the top of many remaining UFA lists and was even believed to be working on something with the Bruins. However, he has decided to retire from the NHL, opting to return to his native Czech Republic to resume his career. With many families separated by COVID restrictions over the last year plus, he certainly can’t be blamed for this decision. Krejci finished his NHL career on a high note, scoring 44 points in 51 games on the Bruins’ second line. (july31)

9. Later on Friday, the Leafs signed Ondrej Kase to a one-year contract worth $1.25 million. Kase was held to just three games with the Bruins in 2020-21, failing to record a single point. Kase’s injury was announced to be an upper-body injury, although it is believed to be a concussion. Regardless, this contract is a low-risk move for the Leafs, who are tight against the cap.

If Kase has fully recovered, he could provide plenty of bang for the buck. He was a 20-goal scorer for the Ducks back in 2017-18, when it seemed he was on a path toward being a productive top-6 player, given his speed and natural skill. (july31)

One day later, the Leafs also signed power forward Nick Ritchie. Here's that Fantasy Take.

10. I have to admit that I was stunned that Seattle was the team that landed Philipp Grubauer. A Chris Driedger/Vitek Vanecek goalie tandem seemed reasonable for the Kraken, even if neither is a proven starting goalie. I suspected Grubauer would be signing elsewhere after the Avalanche used a significant portion of their cap space to sign Gabriel Landeskog right before free agency, but Seattle wasn’t on my radar.

One great unknown of the coming season is what Seattle will look like. On the surface, they have a strong defense, some decent options on offense, but no one of game-breaker quality. This team could resemble the early days of the Minnesota Wild (a style of play that has turned out to span much of their existence). The Kraken won’t play exciting run-and-gun hockey like Vegas, but they’ll win their share of tight-checking 2-1 games.

It’s easy to write Seattle off as an expansion team, but also foolish to after what we saw with Vegas. I don’t see the Kraken having that level of success, but they’re also a possible bubble playoff team in their first season. I’ve seen projections of them finishing as high as second in the Pacific, which seems too high for my liking even with what appears to be a weaker division. (july30)

11. As for Grubauer’s overall value, it has definitely decreased with the signing. By how much is certainly up for debate. Colorado was the ideal situation for him fantasy-wise. He played over 70 percent of his team’s games in 2020-21, a number that could have been even higher had he not been on COVID protocol for a couple weeks in April. The Avalanche finishing first overall allowed Grubauer to maximize wins, as he finished only one win behind league-leader Andrei Vasilevskiy.

What I’m expecting from Grubauer is this: Fewer starts, much fewer wins, and slightly worse ratios that you’ll still be able to tolerate. That’s an overall downgrade for sure, but that doesn’t make him a goalie to flat out avoid. Whether you draft him will depend on where he is ranked. [Fantasy Take: Seattle Kraken Sign Philipp Grubauer and Jaden Schwartz] (july30)

12. Zach Werenski's new six -year deal works out to a cap hit of $9.583 million to begin in 2022-23, so cap league owners have an entire season to prepare. This contract may seem like an overpayment, but it purchases five UFA years while keeping Werenski with a team that has had recent difficulty keeping its top players.

Even though he was held to just five power-play points in an injury-shortened season, Werenski is an effective power-play defenseman, reaching double-digit power-play points in his four previous seasons.  It will be interesting to find out whether this contract affects what power-play specialist Quinn Hughes asks for. (july30)

13. Elsewhere, the Rangers signed Filip Chytil to a two-year contract believed to be $2.3 million per season. In his third full season, Chytil broke the half-point-per-game mark for the first time with 22 points in 42 games. His ice time (13:14 TOI in 2020-21) continues to be limited because of the number of scoring options for the Rangers. Scoring-wise, the Rangers are shaping up to be a very deep team, which could benefit Chytil in some way eventually. (july30)

14. What to make of Edmonton? They trade for Duncan Keith, trade away Caleb Jones, sign Cody Ceci, and then trade Ethan Bear? So they give up Jones and Bear for Keith and Ceci? Give up two 24-year-old d-men for Keith and Ceci? That is the best they can do?

I hope it works for them but man, this could be bad. Tyson Barrie, Keith, Ceci, Kris Russell all on the same blue line. It seems risky.

From a fantasy standpoint, how much are Ceci and Keith worth? Keith won’t see much PP time with Darnell Nurse and Barrie around. Ceci certainly won’t see any. If Keith is getting sparse PP2 minutes, he doesn’t do much in fantasy. Ceci always brings peripherals but it’s hard to see him playing the 22-23 minutes he was a few seasons ago. This could be very bad news for Edmonton goaltending, though. Not that we were ever particularly high on it, were we?

On the flipside, I think Warren Foegele can do well in Edmonton. He likes to shoot in tight to the net, and he’s a good forechecker. He is like Pulju Jr. Having him to deploy even on a good checking third line with Derek Ryan could give them the best third line they’ve had in Connor McDavid‘s tenure. I am not sure Foegele will have huge fantasy upside, but a full season could see 15 goals and 100 hits, and that’s something in deeper multi-cat leagues. Just don’t expect a 50-point season out of him. (july29)

15. It seems the Panthers are betting Sam Bennett will be more like he was with them and less like he was in Calgary. I think he will, too.

Just so everyone is on the same page here: Bennett over-achieved in Florida, but that doesn’t mean it wasn’t warranted to some degree. With him and Jonathan Huberdeau on the ice, the Panthers controlled a whopping 73.6 percent of the expected goals and had an xG rate per 60 minutes over 3.8, which is just beyond elite. (For comparison, Hyman-Matthews-Marner was just over 3.9 for the season, and that led the league.)

Even a 20 percent decline in expected goals rate would see Huberdeau/Bennett still among the elite in the league. So, even if there’s a downturn, they could still be great together. We shouldn’t expect Bennett to put up 95 points, but 60+? That’s very doable. (july27)

16. So who has the best shot at becoming this year’s Jonathan Marchessault? The shift winger was buried on a team with minimal ice time because he’s a smaller player, surprised for one season on a new team with good production. But he still had another gear and he found that gear after joining Vegas. Here are Seattle’s candidates for that:

– Colin Blackwell – A 28-year-old late bloomer, but that’s how it often happens with 5-8 players. His college numbers were ho-hum. His AHL numbers were ho-hum. And then suddenly he figured it out in 2019-20 getting 23 points in 26 games for Milwaukee and getting into some NHL games and making his mark. Last year he won a job with the Rangers, eventually making it so that they couldn’t scratch him, and moving quickly up the depth chart. He had 22 points in 47 games. A real wild card. At one juncture he had 12 points in 12 games. Dobber’s odds: 45%

– Yanni Gourde – The 5-9 Gourde is probably everyone’s favorite for this year’s Marchessault – and for good reason. He once had 64 points and then started 2018-19 with 20 points in 20 games. His play tailed off after signing the big contract, and eventually he found a niche as a checker. However, on that checking line he started teasing with his offensive talent again, almost as if he rediscovered it. What counts against him is that he can check. He can check very, very well. He can chip in solid production while checking. Blackwell can’t do those things, so Blackwell can offer one thing and that’s offense. Gourde can offer multiple things, and that may be why he is on a second or third line. Dobber’s odds: 40%

– Joonas Donskoi – He’s somewhat proven, as Marchessault was. I don’t believe Donskoi has Marchessault’s upside, but at the same time Donskoi has never been let loose before and given prime minutes. A top-five scorer in Liiga back in 2014-15. Dobber’s odds: 15% (july26)

17. I am going to assume that Jordan Eberle plays the role of Reilly Smith. So my favorite ‘top-line production’ trio is Eberle, Jared McCann and Colin Blackwell. Which leaves Gourde as Seattle’s version of David Perron. (july26)

18. For my dynasty draft, I don’t plan on drafting anyone from this year’s NHL draft. It’s a deep 15-team league, keep everybody, 34-player rosters. I doubt Luke Hughes gets to me for the 10^th pick. And to be honest, there is no other player I would take in that spot.

With my picks at 25 and 30 I’d take William Eklund or Matthew Beniers, but I doubt either would fall there. I’d consider Owen Power in the final round, but again – he’ll be gone. And that’s it. I generally don’t grab 18-year-olds to begin with, but this year especially I plan to steer clear. There are always players from last year’s draft still hanging around who are closer (one less year to wait), and a few 20- and 21-year-olds that are appealing with upside.

Every year the latest draftees get all the hype and my league trips over each other trying to draft them. That works out great for me, as my older players then slide. I’m counting on it this year more than other years! (july26)

19. Seattle taking Morgan Geekie over Jake Bean. I understand that GM Ron Francis drafted Geekie in Carolina. I get it. But Bean is the superior asset. Puck-moving defensemen are super-valuable. We just saw Bean land Carolina a second-round draft pick (from Columbus). Geekie couldn’t garner that in a trade, no way. So pick Bean, trade him away for a second (if you don’t like him) and then offer a third or a fourth to Carolina for Geekie if you want him so badly. (july26)

20. Here is the Flyers’ revamped defense:

Ivan Provorov – Ryan Ellis
Travis Sanheim – Rasmus Ristolainen
Keith Yandle – Justin Braun
Cam York –  Egor Zamula
Samuel Morin

After Ristolainen was traded, someone told me they thought the Flyers’ upgrades on defense would help the fantasy value of Carter Hart. I’ll put it this way: I think Hart will make a decent value pick next season. After being on average the third goalie drafted in Yahoo leagues, Hart might have been fantasy hockey’s biggest bust. If you were a Hart owner, I won’t remind you; but if not, you can click on his name to look up the stats on Frozen Tools. Hart is also only 22, which is still rather young for a goalie, especially one who has already played three NHL seasons.

On Frozen Tools, did you know that you can also sort by age? There were only two goalies under 22 that played this past season. One was Cayden Primeau, who despite already playing games in two seasons appears to be another two seasons away from a full-time NHL roster spot, since that’s when Jake Allen‘s contract runs out (and we all know that Carey Price‘s contract is even longer). The other was Spencer Knight, who in a small sample size already looks like he’ll justify his 2019 first-round pick while likely being drafted ahead of Hart in single-season fantasy leagues.  

Based on last season, I could see Hart being selected after pick 100 in many single-season leagues. And since goalie values can wildly fluctuate from one season to the next, Hart could easily be on many bounce-back lists. (july25)

21. In case you missed it, Hadi Kalakeche provided a recap and grades for the NHL Draft's first-round picks in last week’s The Journey, as well as a roundup of Rounds 2 through 7 in yesterday's Journey.

Don’t forget to purchase the Fantasy Prospects Report for more on each 2021 draftee, each organization’s best prospects, as well as top 10 lists for overall fantasy drafts and by position for each draft-eligible prospect. (july25)

Have a good week, folks – be safe!!
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